Why the Assad government crumbled and what is to be expected from a new Syrian state.
Why the Assad government crumbled and what is to be expected from a new Syrian state.
By Yunus Soner
On the actual situation in Syria, we interviewed Ismail Hakkı Pekin. Pekin is a qualified expert on the matter for various reasons. During his active service in the Turkish Armed Forces, he finished service as lieutenant-general and head of military intelligence of the General Staff, he was responsible to conduct the so-called Adana Agreement. Within it, the Turkish and Syrian government coordinated the struggle against the PKK forces located on Syrian soil.
Following the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Pekin maintained his contacts to Syria. He visited the capital city of Damascus various times and met with representatives of the Syrian government, among them Faisal Miqdad, then deputy and later Foreign Minister of Syria.
An international bargain on Syria’s future
Why was the Assad government overthrown? What exactly happened here?
For Assad, there was no longer a situation to continue with the war. Economically, his government has become very weak. During the war, the sanctions were especially bad.
I assess that a bargain was made at a meeting, including the United States, Russia, Türkiye, even Iran. The Russians, in return for their bases in that region, said, ‘okay, we are withdrawing’. Türkiye most likely raised the issue east of the Euphrates, maybe saying something about possible action there. As for Iran, they said ‘we are going to withdraw our forces, but you will stop the operation against me’.
In other words, there is a state that cannot be longer maintained. And that state has neighbors who are negotiating over it. Some countries, including us, have calculated how we will make a profit from this if something happens tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Israel has implemented a very good strategy or tactic. First, after Oct. 7, it crushed Hamas a lot. While Hamas was crushed, the others did not remain silent for too long. So there was a reprisal, but that’s it. Hamas was no longer a threat, it was crushed. Gaza was almost evacuated. Then Israel turned to Hezbollah.
I thought that Israel would not be able to deal with Hezbollah on its own, and it did not solve it on its own, of course, it was definitely helped. Today, Lebanon’s Hezbollah is over. With it, Iran had already been defeated in Lebanon.
Tehran stated Iran can no longer carry the Resistance Front, both economically and due to sanctions. There are grumbles inside Iran, especially about the money spent.
Instead of federal states, cantons
What kind of Syria do you expect in the near future?
Let me put it this way, first of all, I think Türkiye has its wishes in Syria. Others also have requests. This Heyet Tahrir Sham (HTS) has requests. Of course, HTS is not only used by us. It is probably used by other countries as well. It is also used by Western policies. It is used by America.
There is a transitional government for now. It started its work softly. It assert a lot of harsh rules, values, etc. Temporarily. Tomorrow, of course, it will strengthen a little more.
After all, their bread is in Türkiye. In other words, as soon as Türkiye cuts off supplies to them from the North, they are in a miserable situation.
Will the Arabs help them? The Arabs were already helping HTS. Apart from us, certain amounts of money were provided in Qatar from certain funds.
I think that an Islamic-dominated structure will be established. The issue of federation could lead to bigger fights, if the country is made up of federal states. Because these are large pieces, there are multiple ethnic groups in them. There are sectarian groups. They start a fight because this place is given.
My calculation is that we do not want a separate state in the south of us, but Türkiye’s calculation is a little different. It is as if the country is playing neo-Ottomanism, that is, there is a conquering approach in the country. Se how the head of Intelligence went to Damascus. Perhaps, soon the Secretary of State will go there too.
What I expect is a cantonal structure. The cantons are smaller than federal states. So, for example, the Manbij region or the Qamishli region is a big part. There are a lot of different elements in it.
Therefore, if you put such fragmentary cantons and cantons in mixed pieces, and Arab tribes between the cantons, you will not be unbalanced. For example, there are many Arabs in Raqqa, in Hasakah. It’s a place that should be Arab. But ethnic cleansing has been carried out. In those regions, there will definitely be a cantonal structure in Kobane, that is, 15 cantons at the moment. Entities will be put between them. Tribes will be placed. Arab tribes will be put, then Turkmens can be put.
Dreams of reviving Ottoman Empire are a “British Project”
Will the army of the Syrian state in the future that you envision be a kind of public order gendarmerie force?
Yes, it will be so. It will be like the gendarmerie, but at the same time, maybe HTS can do something for a while to punish these dignitaries. It can stand in one place as a guarantee of the regime that will happen. In other words, I think HTS will be the most powerful element. Therefore, I think that anyone with HTS can punch them in the head and use them in such a way. But I don’t think of such an army with tanks or artillery.
For example, we need to look at what is happening in Libya. Türkiye’s political power increases. When that political power increases, it inevitably has effects everywhere. It influences Russia, it influences Iran, it influences Libya. Something can occur in Libya.
We also have to look what’s going to happen in Sub-Saharan Africa. Russia has been reinforcing these regions lately, there might be Russian-Turkish contradictions there. Similarly, we have to look into the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Of course, Türkiye is not acting alone here. This is not possible. I assess that the United States is behind it, but even more than them, Britain is the force behind these actions.
Ideas like rebuilding or reviving the Ottoman Empire, fuelled by foreign incentives, etc. This is a British project. The British project is to divide the area, then to dismantle the ineffective states, the nation-states, to bind all of its rule to one caliph.
This is not limited to our region. It reaches out into Central Asia, inside Russia. They plan to weaken Russia and to divide it. They desire a Russia that has a population of 40-50 million people.
Russia and Iran needed to balance the West – Türkiye must act intelligently
Will the outcome in Syria affect Turkish-Russian and Turkish-Iranian relations?
It can of course. But Türkiye needs them, Türkiye needs Russia, and Türkiye needs Iran. Now, the United States demands that Türkiye cuts or weakens its relations with Russia and Iran. But these countries are very important for us.
They are balancing powers against the West. If you take Iran out of the Middle East equation, no force is left to counterbalance the West here. Similiarly, if you take Russia out, not counterbalance in Europe.
Türkiye then would be facing the West alone, and as they did, Western powers would act as they please. Therefore, Türkiye needs to act very intelligently.