“The Decline of the Empire” or “Endless War”

“The Decline of the Empire” or “Endless War”

The scene seemed bitter and even blood-soaked, and between the shameful international inability and the timid attempts to put an urgent end to the tragedy of the Palestinians in Gaza, there is nothing on the horizon to put a quick end to this tragedy.

The war is still at its peak, although the parties to the tragedy want a quick end to it. On the one hand, the Palestinians want a quick ceasefire, the resistance only thinks about winning the current life-and-death battle, and the occupation forces want the nightmare to end. Biden needs a “victory,” but the one person who does not want a quick end is Netanyahu. He is scratching his neck, and on the other hand, China, Russia, and Iran “have the luxury of waiting.” Perhaps it is sad that this war is not only between the Palestinians and Israel, but rather a regional war and part of the global war to a large extent. It will contribute to writing one of the most important chapters in the story of “the decline of the American empire,” and whether this war is one of Washington’s endless series of wars.

Do you know what the future holds?

… After all these months of brutal war, the eyes were expecting another dramatic moment in Gaza that has not yet come. Instead of a quick end, the confrontations have escalated in the West Bank, and Yemen has entered forcefully with its missiles and threats, and supporters of the Palestinian cause in Iraq have become active. Hezbollah expanded the scope of its operations against the occupation forces, accompanied by the Palestinian resistance factions in Lebanon, and many waited for the speeches of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to know where the Al-Aqsa flood would go in the second part of the operations of the resistance forces. The wait was not only to know the party’s intentions, but also to learn about those of Iran, and the extent of sharing of what happened and will happen in the coming days.

However, Nasrallah’s speeches were a surprise in that they were without “surprises”, while the Israeli war crimes put pressure on the consciences of the rest of the world, and in return, Netanyahu groped his neck, not caring about the screams of the families of the Israeli prisoners, and their demands to stop the war and make a “comprehensive deal” to exchange all prisoners from both sides.

Meanwhile, economists warn of a major economic catastrophe represented by the collapse of the shekel, the flight of hundreds of thousands out of the country, and finally the loss of 760,000 Israelis of their jobs, while at the same time the war is putting pressure on the rest of the countries of the region.

… And I think that there is no decisive end imminent, as the late expert in Israeli affairs, Abdul Wahab Al-Mesiri said: “In wars of liberation, the enemy cannot be defeated, but rather exhausted until he accepts the reality.” He pointed out that the resistance in Vietnam did not defeat the American army, but rather exhausted it to the point of despair of realizing the American plans. It seems that we are facing the movement of history as it repeats itself with America and its creation, Israel.

… At the same time, the leader of the Amal Movement, Hassan Nasrallah, drew a map for the future by affirming that enemy governments do not benefit from their experiences and wars with the resistance, and what is happening today happened in the past in the July War and repeated wars with Gaza, and one of the most important mistakes of the enemy government is putting forward distant goals that it cannot reach, such as eliminating Hamas. And in a challenging tone, he said that history did not mention that the Israelis were able to recover their prisoners without exchange.

In light of the successive developments taking place in the Middle East region, the world is now witnessing in Palestine what some experts have described as “the final destruction of the old foundations and rules.” The international community is entering into a “world without rules,” and everyone must coexist in it in some way. Including Israel.

On the other hand, I think we are seeing the beginnings of the collapse of “unipolarity,” and a gradual battle to establish a “multipolar” system by Russia and China. The beginning was in Ukraine, and the coups d’état in Gabon, Niger, and Burkina Faso, and now in the Arab arena. On the other hand, others believe that the Americans believe that what is happening is an opportunity to plan a process “for a major redistribution of spheres of influence in the Middle East, because their economy is in a state of deterioration, and geopolitical classifications are constantly declining. In order to frighten the oil countries in the Gulf and the Middle East, which dare to switch from the petrodollar to the Chinese yuan”… The United States will need a new victorious war that can allow it to make these countries decline in development and have their resources within reach.

… These people explain the current situation by asserting that “If we look at the geopolitical situation, we can understand that America is now suffering from the ‘torment of empires’ and the stage of decline that the famous American historian Paul Kennedy previously had warned about has begun. Over the past three years, Washington has printed and put forward 80% of the money supply. Which tells us that the United States is urgently closing the holes in its own budget by printing dollars on a massive scale, and that the American economy is simply unable to meet Washington’s level of spending, but when countries around the world begin to abandon them, US government bonds are widely sold, as is China, and Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries that are switching from petrodollars to national currencies. The dollar becomes, in effect, unnecessary for anyone.

Economists believe that “this process of de-dollarization is now actively underway in BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union, and after the dollar was abandoned, the share of the American currency decreased to 20% in global accounts.”

In the face of these accelerating negative developments, the United States wants to “restore order by starting a “small, victorious war,” in the wake of which all countries will once again realize that America is truly a dominant global power. Experts warn that “for this reason, the country’s leaders want America’s deepest desire to destroy Iran, and to show the whole world how they deal with those who decide to go against them.”

The future remains open to various possibilities, and we do not know with certainty what events hold in store.

First of all, Netanyahu and his generals are well aware that the disaster occurred as soon as the ground operation in Gaza began. Because densely populated Gaza intersects with Hamas’s underground lines, of course, the battles in urban areas will not end well for the Israeli army, and now there are heavy losses in officers and soldiers, and everyone understands very well how the Israelis will react when they know the true size. For losses, they are very sensitive to human losses. We are currently witnessing a campaign to manipulate people’s emotions, but for experts, all the ground operations promoted by the Israeli army – mythical and real – are similar to the Ukrainian counterattack, which began with great aura and ended in disaster.

… At the same time, the shock of Washington is in any way no less than the disappointment of the Israelis, as they have become aware of Israel’s true size, and normalization efforts with the Arab countries have become subject to great doubt. Indeed, the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan are in mortal danger, and the Arab peace camp has received a painful blow…

The feasibility and seriousness of Israel in living in peace with its neighbors is questioned, and voices began calling for serious preparation for a new round of defense of its lands, not to mention the occupied land. The war camp was vigorously won, strengthening the argument of Iran and its camp. Indeed, what is called the “moderation camp” became more open to cooperation with Iran. And keener to coexist with it and reluctant to start a war against it.

… On the other hand, it is certain that Washington’s enemies want it to plunge into the quagmire of Middle East wars, and most likely Russia, China and Iran want to “exhaust Washington and Israel.” I think that the “protective heads” in Washington are not ready for a “comprehensive deal” in the Middle East and are betting on it. On the maximum sanctions, the policy of dual containment, an Arab-Israeli NATO, the Abrahamic Accords, the war, the liquidation of Hamas, and even the Palestinian issue, and entering into a war against Iran and its allies, and many warn of the danger of escalation between Washington and Tehran due to the war between Israel and Hamas, and that the danger of the oil price reaching 150 dollar per barrel will be a disaster for everyone. In short, all “brink of the abyss scenarios” will be a major disaster for the region.

… And I think that the current situation differs from previous confrontations in the region, which increases the “possibility of something going wrong,” or things getting out of control. Instead of a small war, Washington and its allies may end up with another of the “endless wars.” It is likely that what happens in Gaza and the day after it will write a bitter story in the story of the decline of the American empire. Some people think it is far away, but we see it soon, like the Suez crisis and the decline of Britain.

Mohamed Sabreen
Mohamed Sabreen is Managing Editor of Al-Ahram Newspaper, Cairo. Contributing Editor for Forbes Arabia Magazine, United Arab Emirates, and a member of EUROMED and the Media Task Force. Among the numerous positions he held previously include the Managing Editor of Al Bayan Newspaper (2006- 2007), Media Advisor for the European Union’s Trade Enhancement Program (TEP-A) (2005-2006), Media Coordinator at Al-Riyadh Development Authority, Saudi Arabia (1991-1994), and has been the Contributing Editor for Al-Shark Al-Awsat Newspaper,  Al-Eqtisadiah Newspaper, Sayidaty Magazine, and Al-Majallah Magazine. He is the Permanent Fellow of the World Press Institute and has been a member of the Egyptian Press Syndicate since 1982.

One response to ““The Decline of the Empire” or “Endless War””

  1. Ahmed Moustafa says:

    good article indeed

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May 2024