By Mehmet Enes Beşer
There is no doubt that climate change and climate disasters are not some abstract concepts for Pakistan anymore. As shown by the devastating floods in 2022, almost one-third of the country was inundated, leaving millions homeless and leading to losses totaling more than US$30 billion. However, climate catastrophes did not end there, rather they became increasingly common since that event. For example, the list includes droughts in Sindh, glacial lake outbursts in Gilgit-Baltistan, heatwaves in Punjab, and city-wide flooding in Karachi. Nevertheless, Pakistan does not seem to be ready to embrace climate change as one of the most critical issues on its development agenda.
Firstly, Pakistan should fundamentally reconsider its development paradigms in relation to climate. Indeed, the country should stop thinking about climate adaptation or mitigation as add-ons but rather make it the core element of its development plan. The future economic stability, food security, access to safe drinking water, urban resilience, and social cohesion depend on such an approach to climate issues.
According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan belongs to the group of ten countries the most vulnerable to climate change consequences. Nevertheless, Pakistan accounts for no more than 1% of greenhouse gases globally. Although, from the moral standpoint, it is quite right, politically it means that the country relies on external powers for solving its climate issues. However, Pakistan cannot wait for the emergence of climate justice globally since the disasters occur now. Therefore, Pakistan should act immediately instead of waiting for climate change to become a problem for others as well.
There are several economic arguments in favor of immediate and effective climate change action in Pakistan. For instance, more than one-third of the population works in agriculture where the share of GDP exceeds 20%. Moreover, agricultural production is quite sensitive to environmental changes. For example, irregular weather patterns, soil erosion, and rising temperatures affect crop yield adversely. At the same time, the cotton crops that are significant for Pakistan’s textile industry suffer greatly because of climate-related disturbances. Consequently, Pakistan should pay serious attention to climate-friendly agriculture and irrigation systems development.
Moreover, climate change affects Pakistan negatively by increasing the vulnerability of its cities. Currently, urban areas such as Karachi and Lahore grow rapidly, yet their infrastructure and design do not take environmental changes into account. For instance, concrete buildings and poorly maintained drainage increase the flood risks after moderate precipitation. Besides, extreme temperatures in urban areas cause additional challenges since unregulated settlements are located there with no electricity for air-conditioning. Thus, Pakistani cities are becoming dangerous places in relation to climate changes without necessary adaptation.
Another important issue regarding climate change in Pakistan is related to energy. Indeed, Pakistan still depends mainly on oil and coal imported to satisfy energy demand. Such an approach is not good for Pakistan since it makes the country subject to international price fluctuations and negative changes in trade relations. Furthermore, climate change increases the country’s carbon emissions that make it difficult to find partners for international financing. Thus, the transition to renewable energy sources is critical since Pakistan has plenty of potential for developing solar and wind energy industries. However, current tariffs and regulatory barriers impede this process significantly.
Finally, climate change requires massive investments. Although Pakistan has financial difficulties to allocate a substantial budget for this purpose, the economic costs of ignoring this issue are much higher. Moreover, the investments necessary for making Pakistan climate-proof would constitute less than half of these economic losses. The point is that climate change adaptation is a necessity, but also an economically reasonable choice provided appropriate sequencing and prioritization.
The issue is that Pakistan suffers from climate change mostly due to fragmentation of climate policy. Although there are numerous documents and laws dealing with climate problems, they are not applied effectively because of the lack of proper integration. For example, climate change should be mainstreamed into other areas of national development such as agriculture, health, education, and transport instead of being discussed in stand-alone initiatives.
Thus, Pakistan should consider international aid as a part of domestic reform. For example, it has already made claims to finance the losses suffered because of climate change at COP summits. Besides, access to green climate funds should be gained. At the same time, international finance alone cannot solve the issue since Pakistan requires a green budgeting framework. Climate risks assessment and dedicated funds for climate adaptation should be established as a priority for federal and provincial authorities.
However, climate policy should be also extended to the people who are directly affected by climate disasters. For instance, farmers, slum dwellers, and coastal populations can help the government develop local adaptation programs. Moreover, women that traditionally carry all the burdens in case of climate disasters can contribute to climate adaptation initiatives as well. Additionally, youth involvement in climate issues can improve the situation since young people can benefit from education in climate change and climate entrepreneurship.
Therefore, Pakistan stands at a crucial point in terms of choosing the development path. Indeed, there is a need either to continue to treat climate change as an external issue to be solved at international conferences and donor programs or see it as the foundation of development. This decision is important because climate adaptation and mitigation require political will and long-term strategic vision, but its absence might lead to economic disaster.