Iran war: The American Empire at a dead end

UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was guest on Türkiye’s Ulusal Kanal.

The TV program covered the negotiation process between the US and Iran, the trajectory of the war and its outcomes to date, the power struggle within the US and its potential consequences, as well as the near-future projections for the Gulf countries and Europe.

Welcome, Mr. Güzaltan. If you wish, let’s start with the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran. We have the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on an Iranian-flagged vessel. Following these events, Iran stated that the US is unreliable and that the negotiations would yield no results, and they won’t go to Pakistan for the negotiations. What would you say about these recent developments?

When you look not only at today’s situation but also at the broader picture, from the 12-day war to the ongoing developments, it indicates that the US and Israel are not inclined toward a solution at the negotiation table. Whenever Iran sat down at the negotiating table, both before and after the 12-day war, as well as before and after this latest war, it was attacked by the US and Israel. So, it is understandable that Iran maintains a distant stance toward these talks and insists on obtaining the most definitive non-aggression guarantees possible.

In fact, Iran is open to resolving issues through diplomacy and dialogue. However, following the first round of negotiations in Islamabad, inconsistent statements had already emerged from the US. Now, at this point, the US has targeted an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to make threatening statements. Meanwhile, Israel’s ceasefire violations continue in Lebanon. In such a situation, we can say that the contradictions between the US-Israel and Iran are of irreconcilable nature, and in all likelihood, this war will continue.

Coup d’etat in the US

You’re predicting that the war will continue. On the other hand, it seems that Trump is backed into a corner and has reached a point where he is unable to account to his public. Economic consequences of the war, in particular, seem quite influential in this. Will the US be able to maintain the power and the domestic political environment necessary to sustain this war?

Significant developments occurred in the US in early April while this war was ongoing. Numerous generals, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were dismissed. This is actually big news; in a sense, a coup took place in the US. If this happened in any other country, it would be called a coup, yet these developments did not receive sufficient coverage in the press.

Of course, it is difficult to know all the details, but it is clear that a very fierce struggle between factions within the US state is currently taking place. If we go back shortly before the start of the war, the Epstein documents were released, and the names of Trump and many American officials appear in these documents. There is mention of an “Israeli blackmail” into this war, and we know that Israel wields immense power within the US. In the subtext of statements made by Iranian officials, we see that they are addressing the distinction and contradictions between the US and Israel. So in the coming period, the trajectory will not only be determined by Trump’s or Netanyahu’s whim, but also by these infightings.

The US-Israel alliance failed to gain the upper hand against Iran on the ground. At the negotiating table, Iran is striving to protect its gains. In fact, Iran is imposing a ceasefire beyond its own borders, in Lebanon, attempting to transform its military success into a political gain across the entire region, and to a certain extent, it is succeeding. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran targeted one of the fundamental pillars of the US Empire: the petrodollar. We are witnessing the consequences of this today, and we will experience them even more in the future. However, ultimately, everything hinges on the fight within the US. In the coming period, the entire world will likely begin to monitor this fight, this thing resembling a “civil war” or “coup”, in more closely.

“A new Arab Spring”

In addition to this struggle in the US, developments that may occur in two more areas in the near future could determine the nature of the trajectory of this war and beyond. One of these is the question of how much longer the pro-US regimes in the Gulf countries can sustain their existence. The “US security umbrella” which they obtained in exchange for forming one of the fundamental pillars of the US petrodollar empire, has taken a major hit recently, particularly in this war. The Arab Spring, which began in 2011, was characterized by intense American influence. Now, we might witness a “New Arab Spring” that is distanced from US influence and directed against the US. As the US and Israel weaken, anti-US and anti-Israel forces in the Gulf countries may rise. In fact, there are already some signs of it.

The second of these is the energy problem in Europe. If Europe continues to follow the US around, it could face a massive crisis, which may lead to significant shifts.

The “Hezbollah wall”, once again

I’d like to take a closer look at Lebanon. How do you view Israel’s attacks? Where might this lead?

Firstly, whenever Israel has attempted to intervene in southern Lebanon, it has hit the “Hezbollah wall” and been forced to retreat. We are seeing a similar thing now. Israel is using its air power to target civilians in various parts of Lebanon, that is, committing civilian massacres; however, militarily, Israel is failing to make any headway in southern Lebanon. Reports suggest that Israel is suffering significant military losses.

Beyond this, the US and Israel are gambling on Lebanon’s internal situation. There are efforts to pressure the current Lebanese government and push Lebanon’s own national forces against Hezbollah. In essence, the US and Israel are trying to stir up internal turmoil in Lebanon and create a civil war atmosphere, thereby attempting to strike Hezbollah from within the country.

However, Hezbollah holds immense prestige in Lebanon, not only among the Shiites but across the entire population. After all, we are talking about a resistance organization defending Lebanese soil, one that has acquired the identity of a national resistance movement. So I don’t believe the current Lebanese administration would take a step such as confronting Hezbollah directly. Currently, the only path left for the US-Israel alliance is to attempt to intimidate the public by bombing civilians, and that is exactly what they are doing.

It was significant that Iran emphasized Lebanon’s inclusion in the recent ceasefire. In the coming period, we could see that developments in various countries influence and trigger one another. If the US-Israel chooses to attack Iran again, this situation would naturally affect Lebanon, but also Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and gradually the entire region. At this point, the strategy pursued by the forces aligned with Iran is of critical importance. Although there appear to be many fronts, these are essentially parts of a single front: on one side, the US-Israel and their allies, and on the other, Iran and the groups supporting it in the region, as well as global powers like Russia and China. Here, we see a very concrete confrontation between two blocs: the unipolar bloc and the multipolar bloc.

The Evangelical-Zionist structure

You mentioned the internal struggle in the US. In this context, where do you place Trump’s comparison of himself to Jesus Christ, the increasing frequency of such religious rhetoric and ceremonies in the US administration, and the fact that this has reached a level that puts the Trump administration at odds with the Vatican?

When we talk about the US and Israeli administrations, we are talking about leaderships that feed on reactionary ideologies. This Evangelical-Zionist structure has encroached upon the state, establishing dominance over everything from capital groups and state organs to the media and the military. In fact, even Roosevelt, even in that early period, made statements warning against this oligarchic structure. It is a structure detached from the people and the founding traditions of the US. As for Israel, it is already an occupying, genocidal, and Zionist entity.

Naturally, at the root of this entire structure and religious rhetoric lie imperialism, the interests of major global corporations, and geopolitical agendas. This Evangelical-Zionist structure and ideology are inherently aggressive. However, I have been saying this since the start of Israel’s ground operation in Gaza: with this offensive, Israel’s process of suicide has also begun. At the point we have reached today, we have an Israel experiencing reverse migration, economically collapsed, and militarily weakened.

Cover graph: Art by Mr. Fish/Scheerpost