Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran: Different Parts of the Same Front
Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran: Different Parts of the Same Front
By Orçun Göktürk, from Beijing / China
More than a week has passed since the renewed attacks by the US and Israel against Iran and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. During this period, Iran targeted almost all US bases in West Asia and carried out successful retaliations against Tel Aviv. The operations launched by Trump with the statement, “I am addressing the Iranian people; this is a call for regime change,” were met with a response that shocked officials in Washington and Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, the implications of the Iranian issue for China are being debated. A recent analysis by Aaron Glasserman in Foreign Policy highlights the increasingly common rhetoric in the US, defining China as part of an “axis of authoritarians” acting alongside Iran, Russia, and North Korea against the United States.
How China Differs from the Others
Beijing is, of course, preparing for a post-US hegemony era, much like Moscow, Pyongyang, or Tehran. Not only that, but it is also playing a leading role in efforts to build an alternative international order to the US-NATO-centered world. Through the expansion of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, loans provided to the developing world via the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Belt and Road Initiative, various massive infrastructure projects, and trade in national currencies, attempts are being made to break the hegemony of the dollar.
However, China has a significant difference from the others. Beijing desires the newly formed order to be stripped of hegemony, yet it wants the removal of barriers to trade and the continuation of liberalization. Beijing is the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity and remains the world’s manufacturing hub. Naturally, for major Chinese capitalists—specifically regarding the Iran issue and in general—two major fears exist: First, the placement of obstacles before trade and the rise of protectionism. Second, the possibility of the US Navy ceasing to provide security for global trade routes or those routes being threatened. Beijing does not yet believe it possesses the self-confidence or the material foundation to secure global trade routes on its own.
The Importance of Iran
The primary structural feature that distinguishes China from Russia and Iran is its dependence on oil and natural gas. The country has a daily oil requirement of nearly 15 million barrels, more than 10 million of which are met directly through imports.
Beijing clearly perceives that the aggression of Trump’s US—first through Venezuela and then Iran—is essentially an attempt to squeeze China by “controlling energy supplies and routes.” According to reports from Western institutions, the impact of the Iran and Strait of Hormuz crisis on Beijing will be felt after a few months. It is said that China has enough oil to last for 7–8 months. A prolonged war and disruption of oil shipments are Beijing’s greatest fears.
Beijing’s Internal Issues
On the other hand, delegates from across China gathered in Beijing on March 5 for the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, known as the “Two Sessions,” China’s highest legislative bodies. In these meetings, where political, economic, and security strategies regarding China’s governance are discussed and decided, the lowest economic growth target since 1991 was announced.
The danger of a prolonged war and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed are creating great anxiety in Beijing. Furthermore, Beijing is not only dependent on Gulf countries for oil; a potential decrease in the flow of Gulf capital would significantly affect the Chinese economy, which is already experiencing a contraction.
The geopolitical aspect is the crux of the matter. For China, Tehran represents holding the gateway to West Asia. Mao Zedong’s 1965 statement during the visit of Palestine Liberation Organization representatives to Beijing—”US imperialism created Israel for you and Taiwan for us”—remains valid for Beijing today. For China, Tehran represents much more than just 1.3 million barrels of oil per day.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping last visited Tehran in 2016 and has not returned to Iran for nearly 10 years. In 2021, the two countries signed massive 25-year economic and military agreements totaling $400 billion. The fall of Tehran would mean the blocking of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and, moreover, the fall of Asia’s western flank.
Iranian Resistance Strengthens Beijing’s Hand
Beijing is preparing to host US President Trump early next month. Following the increased customs duties under Trump’s tariff war and Beijing’s retaliatory restrictions on rare earth element exports, the leaders of the two countries reached a compromise involving mutual de-escalation at the summit held in Busan, South Korea, in November 2025.
The following picture now emerges: When sitting at the table with Trump, Beijing will likely explain that the US lacks the oil required to process the rare earth elements (specifically Gallium) needed for THAAD and Patriot production. These rare elements, particularly Gallium, are also critical for Tehran’s missile fuel production.
On the other hand, West Asian oil is vital for China. According to a study by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, 46 million barrels of Iranian crude oil are held in floating storage at sea. It is estimated that most of this crude will be shipped to China via Malaysia. Recent attacks by the US and Israel targeting oil refineries in Iran may be a message to Beijing. A back-channel message may have been conveyed to the CPC leadership: “If you cause difficulties regarding the rare elements we want, we can expand attacks to the Iranian crude oil held in offshore storage.” However, it must also be considered that the US lacks the power to expand the war into the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, imperialist madness should always be expected.
Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran: Different Parts of the Same Front
Russia’s military intervention against NATO expansion in Ukraine began to dig the grave of the Trans-Atlantic-centered world order in the 21st century. Russia underwent a heavily armed struggle against imperialism, but in doing so, Moscow solidified its position as the greatest military power in Eurasia.
China, meanwhile, plays a leading role in the technological, economic, and institutional aspects of the struggle against imperialism. Militarily, it is not as proactive as Russia, but it plays a complementary role through spare parts, dual-use technological products, and rare elements. For now, it cannot be expected to be more aggressive, as the country’s foreign policy concept and military strategy differ significantly from those of Russia, Iran, or North Korea. However, this difference constitutes a different facet of the same front.
Beijing is the Ultimate Target of the US
In the National Security Strategy announced by the Trump administration as 2025 comes to a close, the US admitted for the first time that its quest for global dominance is unrealistic. However, this is not a peaceful withdrawal. It is taking shape through aggression concentrated on Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, and Iran, and by concentrating US military power on the Western Hemisphere and the first island chain in the Western Pacific.
Beijing is the ultimate target of the US. The next US move or military concentration is highly likely to occur via the Ryukyu Islands, the Philippines, Guam, and Hawaii. The US National Security Strategy declares this region “the most critical area to stop China’s rise.” Washington is militarizing Japan here and attempting to encircle China by ensuring the Pacific remains its “inland lake” through allies like South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and Taiwan.
For the US, the fall of Iran would have been a step toward pivoting to the Pacific. Tehran’s resistance saves Beijing’s honor and strengthens its hand. The world is in the midst of a great transformation. We are on the threshold of a period where the imperialist hegemony of the US has entered a process of disintegration due to Iran’s resistance. Global great power politics is in a tripartite era between the US, Russia, and China. Although China maintains that it is not “in an alliance targeting third parties” with Russia and Iran, its fate is shared with Moscow and Tehran.