The End of the American Umbrella and “Hitler’s Dream Come True”

By Yunus Emre Özgün

As Donald Trump’s foreign policy shatters his domestic base and the European Union morphs into an unaccountable “war project,” the geopolitical tectonic plates of the West are fracturing. In an interview with UWI Data, renowned historian and international affairs analyst Dr. Gilbert Doctorow diagnoses the civil war within the American Right, the democratic deficit in Brussels, and the terrifying resurgence of German military ambitions.

We are living through a period of profound strategic paralysis and institutional decay. Across the Atlantic, the United States is witnessing a bizarre synthesis of foreign aggression and domestic bulldozing, triggering an unprecedented civil war within the American political right. Meanwhile, looking out from the windows of Brussels, the European Union appears hellbent on economic suicide, stubbornly refusing to course-correct even as its industrial backbone crumbles.

To decode this synchronized unraveling, we sat down with Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, an independent international affairs analyst and historian based in Brussels. With his trademark historical rigor and unvarnished realism, Doctorow dissects the true reasons behind the fracture in Donald Trump’s base, the deeply flawed architecture of the European Union, and why the withdrawal of American hegemony might pave the way for a German-dominated militarized Europe, a scenario he starkly compares to “Hitler’s dream come true”.

The Fall of the MAGA Consensus: Morality, Inflation, and the Middle East

Dr. Doctorow, we are witnessing a fascinating synthesis of Donald Trump’s foreign and domestic agendas. Abroad, his administration shows a blatant disregard for international law, while domestically, he bypasses institutions and purges opponents. Yet, the pushback is unique, and it is coming from his own “America First” base. Influential figures, resigning officials, and combat veterans are harshly criticizing the pro-Israel lobby’s grip over his policies, alongside the looming shadow of the Epstein disclosures acting as political kompromat. How do you analyze this civil war within the American right? Is Trump building a systemic autocracy, or is his administration tearing itself apart?

Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: Trump has always been disruptive; that is his hallmark. While there are certainly issues of compromise, of which the Epstein files are probably the outstanding example, I don’t believe Mr. Trump was in any particular difficulty until he began this February 28th attack on Iran together with Israel. That changed his political fortunes, condemning him to spend the second half of his term fighting impeachment.

The war changed everything. It was outrageously immoral, a violation of international law, and an act of pure aggression. It opened with the horrendous destruction of an elementary school in Iran, killing young children and teachers, which was then obnoxiously denied by the US as an American missile. The vile propaganda claiming the Iranians did it to themselves outraged people of common sense.

Within the MAGA group, there are people troubled by that type of stamping on shared values. Consequently, he has lost strength precisely because of this adventure in Iran. Polls show that 21% of voters who supported Donald Trump in the last election now want to see him impeached, an unprecedented shift. It rests on the vile behavior of Trump and his Secretary of Defense or War, Pete Hegseth, who are defying all rules of normal human conduct.

But we must also look at the economic side. Even those untroubled by the immorality of an unsanctioned war care deeply about inflation, particularly what they pay to fill a tank of gas. The man who promised never to engage in a Middle Eastern war again, who promised to tame inflation, has violated all of his promises. This fundamentally accounts for the dramatic fall in his popularity and the turn against him by outstanding supporters like Tucker Carlson.

The European “War Project” and the Illusion of Democracy

If we cross the Atlantic and look at the strategic paralysis right outside your window in Brussels, the situation is equally dire. The war on Iran has exponentially deepened Europe’s economic fragility, yet resistance to Washington’s dictates is expanding from Spain to Germany and even the UK. Despite this pushback from national capitals, the EU central leadership remains committed to economic suicide. Are we witnessing the final stages of Europe’s vassalization by an unaccountable EU elite, or the structural collapse of the transatlantic alliance?

We are witnessing dramatic changes, and my view is that European institutions must be deconstructed and reconstructed under new rules. In the last several years, under the guidance of Ursula von der Leyen, Europe has morphed into a ‘war project’.

This structure was conceived decades ago by well-educated, progressive elites who naively assumed their successors would share their exact concern for human rights and democracy. They built institutions suitable for themselves, never anticipating that very different people might take the helm.

What Europe desperately lacks is the separation of powers. We have a number of local dictators whose policies are hated by their populations: Germany is run by Friedrich Merz, who has a dismal 10 percent popularity rating; Emmanuel Macron has been fighting for a parliamentary majority and is despised; Keir Starmer has extremely low ratings in the UK. Yet, they strut on the world stage speaking on behalf of their peoples without any right whatsoever.

The European institutions represent the worst of parliamentary democracy. The European Parliament controls the executive, but the Parliament itself is controlled by the European People’s Party (EPP), which is dominated by Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU). Voting in Europe is entirely top-down, not bottom-up. Because of this centralized structure, there is no way to reverse policy or challenge the executive without finally destroying the institutions themselves.

The End of the American Umbrella and “Hitler’s Dream Come True”

How does this institutional dysfunction translate to the shifting geopolitical sands, particularly regarding NATO and Europe’s military future?

The real conflict going on now is a postponed conflict among the major European powers. During the Cold War and beyond, these inherent rivalries between France, Britain, and Germany were all held in check by ‘America’s big ass’ sitting on Europe. Once you remove that big ass, and Donald Trump is doing what he can to remove it, these deep frictions inevitably bubble to the surface.

Merz is leveraging Germany’s status as the strongest industrial base in Europe to claim that Germany will produce the armaments justifying its position at the head of a European army. But here is the context: Germany is not willing to submit to a united European army accountable to Ursula von der Leyen. Merz insists that Germany be the head of a coalition of ‘willing partners’.

However, we understand sotto voce that the British and the French are not enthusiastic about seeing European military forces under German control. This is not what we fought World War II to avoid; this is Hitler’s dream come true.

European politics has long been German-dominated. A vote in Belgium is worth perhaps eight times less than a vote in Germany regarding its impact on European governance. For years, under Angela Merkel, the Germans hid behind the apron strings of Brussels, claiming they had no foreign or military policy of their own, while in reality, they controlled Brussels.

Now, the moment of truth has arrived. Since Europe has re-identified itself as a war project preparing for a massive conflict with Russia, the question is: What will Germany’s role be? Will they be the generals while the others act as privates, or will there be a massive contest for power?

I believe we are at the very beginning of a brutal contest for power. As the Russian metaphor goes, it is like two people in a bed, and each is fiercely pulling the blanket towards himself. That is exactly what is happening to the West today.