How will the global crisis in Iran play out?

By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist

The Strait of Hormuz has undoubtedly been a key choke point for energy and trade routes throughout history.
However, at this point in time, Hormuz has become a full-fledged choke point; despite accounting for only 20 percent of global flow, it not only controls the flow of oil and natural gas but is also fundamentally reshaping the global balance of power.
Now, as the war enters its second month and has reached a strategic impasse despite U.S. military superiority, Washington is still trying to operate according to classical doctrine.
Insisting on the goal of achieving quick results through air and naval superiority, the U.S. has, by the end of the past month, pinned its hopes on the pre-war narrative of “keeping the Strait of Hormuz open” to construct a “victory” narrative.

In other words, the U.S. now regards returning to the pre-war status quo as a “victory.”
Iran’s strategy, however, is proceeding as a protracted, cost-focused war of attrition.
In summary, the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz is creating an unsustainable cost and a diplomatic deadlock for the U.S., rather than a military success.

The U.S.’s Dilemma in the Strait of Hormuz

The past month has clearly demonstrated that, from the U.S. perspective, the issue cannot be resolved solely through military superiority.
Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open—while technically feasible—poses on-the-ground risks that could render any potential U.S. operations both costly and untenable.
Mine-clearing operations, the threat of unmanned surface vehicles stretching approximately 160–170 km from Bandar Abbas to Kharg Island, speedboats, and surveillance pressures promise the U.S. Navy nothing short of a nightmare.
This situation is forcing the U.S. to shift its strategic focus from the Pacific to the Middle East and is challenging all the long-term plans Trump announced during his election campaign—once again, at Trump’s own hands.
At this point, it is clear that Iran’s aim is not to completely close the strait.
Just as Iran keeps the region under threat through retaliatory attacks, it also seeks to spread the cost of any attack against itself across the global arena by keeping the global economy under constant threat in this manner.

However, Iran is advancing this not through a one-dimensional war strategy on the ground, but through a multi-layered pressure network conducted via proxy forces.
Iran, which is exerting significant pressure on Israel—which continues its attacks in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon—is also continuing to strain the resources of the U.S. and its regional allies.
Disruptions to trade in the Red Sea, rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, and threats to energy pipelines in the Gulf are all part of Iran’s strategy targeting global supply chains.

Other Actors

Tel Aviv’s expansionist, deviant theological, and aggressive strategy is dragging the U.S. into the center of the conflict—whether it wants to or not—and this imposes a historical burden of alliance on Washington.
The U.S., which has historically been squeezed by Israel and forced to dismantle the entire global order—including international institutions like the UN—is now preparing for an attack in the Strait of Hormuz at the cost of sacrificing its own global supremacy.
On the other hand, Moscow and Beijing are turning this very crisis into a strategic opportunity.
While Russia directly benefits from rising energy prices, China views the U.S.’s distracted attention as a long-term advantage and is now using it—particularly by capitalizing on the U.S.’s weakening—to emerge as a true superpower.
In light of all these dynamics, Türkiye’s importance undoubtedly comes to the fore.
For as the crisis deepens, three fundamental needs emerge.
First, alternative energy routes; second, secure logistics routes; and third, diplomatic mediation capable of engaging all parties. Türkiye occupies a central position in all three areas.
For example, while pipelines like TANAP and TurkStream stand out as rare options that could reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, trade routes advancing through the Middle Corridor and maritime routes are becoming increasingly critical as risks rise.
The fact that Türkiye is one of the few countries capable of engaging with both the West and regional actors elevates it from merely a transit country to a central actor in crisis management.

Conclusion

A month has passed since the war the U.S. expected to conclude within two weeks began, and the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz signifies far more than a classic military stalemate.
This is a stress test that lays bare the fragility of the global order.
It is now clearer than ever that military superiority differs from what the numbers on paper suggest, that the global economy is more fragile than expected, and that alliances are based on “interests.”
At this juncture, Hormuz is no longer merely a transit point but a global testing ground, and the outcome of this test will reshape the entire world.