Which Europe between the US and Russia?

By Onur Sinan Güzaltan

Donald Trump’s efforts to strike a deal with Russia and his parallel policies of distancing himself from the current governments in Europe have accelerated the search for a new direction on the continent.

Developments in French politics constitute an important example to understand this European-wide search.

France’s polarization reflecting Europe’s uncertainty

The current President of France, Emmanuel Macron, is a politician without roots in any established political tradition, brought to the Elysée Palace by the organizations linked to international financial circles…

In domestic and foreign policy, he has pursued, and continues to pursue, policies that can be defined as globalist and left-liberal.

In the economy, Macron has continued the policy initiated during François Mitterrand’s presidency (1981-1995) of state-led dismantling of the welfare state, destroying the last remnants of the people’s social gains.

The ‘Yellow Vests’ movement, led by the middle class, nationwide labor strikes, and various popular movements have developed in reaction to this destruction.

Macron has also failed in integrating immigrants and immigrant children into society. Although today’s France is officially defined as a nation-state, it has transformed into a structure divided into different ethnic groups throughout its major cities, especially Paris and Marseille, down to the neighborhood level, and has largely lost its national cohesion.

In international politics, Macron’s France has been loyal to the United States (although this began changing with Trump’s presidency). On the other hand, it has surrendered its national institutions to the control of European Union technocrats, has suffered successive setbacks in Africa—once its traditional sphere of influence—and, as a result, has largely lost access to critical raw material resources.

Macron paid the price for his domestic and foreign policy defeats by losing his parliamentary majority. Politically, he is a lame duck.

In this context, the arrival of Trump and his steps taken behind European governments, including Macron’s, which had previously relied heavily on the Atlantic Alliance, to withdraw from NATO, have pushed Macron and his likes, as well as the broader political establishment in Europe, both ruling and opposition, into a search for new directions.

At the beginning of the process, Macron and his allies tried to convince Trump to maintain the Atlantic Alliance, but they were unsuccessful.

In response, the idea of a European security architecture against Russia was advocated more vigorously.

However, the two faces of the opposition in France, the Left Bloc and the National Front, advocate ending aggressive policies towards Russia and normalizing relations, particularly in the energy sector.

Meanwhile, both the left and the right wings of the opposition support limiting the European Union’s control over France’s national institutions and finding national solutions to France’s political, economic, and military dependence on the United States.

Villepin and Glucksmann: Two contrasting visions for Europe

Apart from the current opposition, there are two voices rising against Macron within centrist politics, especially recently.

On the one hand, there is Dominique de Villepin, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister under Jacques Chirac…

On the other, there is Raphael Glucksmann, whose background ranges from promoting the colour revolution in Ukraine across Europe and advising Mikheil Saakashvili, to co-chairing a political party in France (Place Publique) and serving as an MEP.

Villepin, known for his opposition to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and for subsequently advocating the idea of a Europe independent of the United States, now emphasizes the need to defend “liberal democratic values in Europe.”

Arguing that “America can no longer be regarded as Europe’s ally,” Villepin contends that under Trump, America has become part of the illiberal superpowers, including Russia and China, leading inevitably to its isolation.

Villepin states that Trump’s authoritarian approach is both a cause of crisis and an opportunity for Europe, predicting that this period will trigger a democratic awakening and intensify the struggle for defending liberal democracy in Europe.

Villepin also asserts that Trump has abandoned Ukraine to its own fate, while Elon Musk supports extremist movements within Europe aimed at weakening the European Union, arguing that Europe must develop its own plan in response.

Regarding the issue of Europe sending troops to Ukraine, Villepin says that it could occur within the framework of a peace plan approved by the international community. As for relations with Russia, he advocates a political stance that can be described as cautious, with diplomacy taking precedence.

When asked about Le Pen, Villepin responds that although Le Pen distances herself from Trump’s MAGA movement, she is ideologically Trump’s twin, united with Trump in opposition to globalization, immigration, and multiculturalism.

Glucksmann, who can be described as the French counterpart of Soros, harshly criticizes Trump’s America (even calling for the return of the Statue of Liberty to France after Trump’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine) and advocates a more aggressive European stance against Russia.

Glucksmann argues that far-right political movements in Europe are supported by Russia, asserting that the European Union should be strengthened economically, politically, and militarily in response.

Glucksmann regularly promotes narratives of a ‘Russian occupation’ threatening Europe.

In the coming period, it seems likely that centrist political movements like Villepin’s, who reflect the interests of European capital more consistently than Glucksmann, and which have deep roots in the state tradition, will gain power in France and Europe.

These movements advocate for a Europe independent of the United States, favoring diplomatic solutions to problems with Russia and China.

Meanwhile, there remains a persistent risk that Glucksmann and similar figures will engage in various provocations…