China resolves the long-standing debate about its “desire and ability” to get involved in the sands of the Middle East, and there is no longer any doubt that the “silent partner” now dares to speak out and is working hard to become an insurmountable number in the Middle East.
I believe that the Gaza war, Netanyahu’s madness, Washington’s blatant complicity, and the Biden administration’s inability to stop the war of extermination of the Palestinians, or to restrain Israel’s leaders… have destroyed what remains of the “moral stock” of the reeling American empire. There is no doubt that the image of the United States in the Middle East has deteriorated greatly, and what is most dangerous is that the credibility of American leadership in the world has declined significantly. In contrast, the “Chinese giant” has awakened to present a more attractive and sympathetic vision for oppressed peoples such as the Palestinian people.
Hence the Chinese leader’s resounding speech, “War cannot continue indefinitely, and justice cannot remain absent forever,” calling before the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum, amid the remarkable presence of the leaders of Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Tunisia, to organize “an expanded international conference for peace” on the Palestinian issue, and in light of a firm position demanding an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of a Palestinian state recognized by the United Nations.
Here we must note that Beijing no longer intends to remain on the sidelines of the Middle East. Rather, it can be clearly said that “another side” of the Chinese dragon will emerge with strength and determination that will surprise everyone.
Beijing has become an important player, so Many parties asking it to intervene, and even the West itself is demanding it to intervene to resolve the Ukraine crisis, and Hungary says it will not abandon its partnership with China, and Saudi Arabia and Iran have requested Beijing’s intervention, which has succeeded in sponsoring a historic reconciliation agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, and the China-Arab Cooperation Forum has established 19 important mechanisms, including ministerial conferences and strategic political dialogues.
Here we must stop at “the secret of China’s success,” and the attractiveness of the “comprehensive partnership” that it offers to the countries and peoples of the region. It offers a “recipe for development,” not a poisonous meal of “endless wars,” and it does not incite a religious war between Sunnis and Shiites that will burn The Arab and Islamic world for centuries to come.
A long road and an irresistible attraction
Although China does not enjoy the same dominance as the United States regarding the security priorities of the countries of the region, it does not want to take risks associated with these issues. While denouncing American intervention, offering dialogue and cooperation as an alternative, China strongly declares that the Middle East does not live in a vacuum, and that it is a region that includes peoples with a great civilization, and the problems of the region must be solved by its countries through negotiations. They provide assistance and do not impose guardianship or brutal domination.
The recent summit of the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum came within the path of a long road, in which consultations and coordination between the two parties were not interrupted, and there were notable milestones, the most important of which was the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping In the first half of December 2022 for Saudi Arabia, which Arab and Chinese officials described as historic, in order to establish a qualitative shift in the field of cooperation and development between the Arab world and China. This visit was notable for witnessing three summits between Beijing and Saudi Arabia, and between China and the Gulf states, in addition to an Arab-Chinese summit, the first of its kind.
This visit came at a time when Gulf-American relations are witnessing tensions, most notably in energy policy, the cooperation with Russia, and Gulf Arabs’ fear of a decline in Washington’s interest in the security of their region in the future. Today, relations between Washington and the Arab countries are witnessing new old disputes related to the failure to resolve the Palestinian issue and Washington’s adoption of Policies Exploding conflicts. And it is unlikely for China to play a prominent role in the political and security fields at the expense of the dominant American role in the Arab world, especially in the Gulf states. The reason for this is due to the vital importance of these countries in providing the world with energy sources, and to their geopolitical importance to Washington and its interests.
It’s the economy, stupid
At the same time, China has become welcome. Because it entered from the door of broad benefit, pushing its economic papers first, and it achieved remarkable success, the most prominent of which are:
- China has consistently been the largest trading partner of Arab countries for many years, and bilateral trade between China and Arab countries has maintained a historically high level of about $400 billion, amid expectations that it will reach $600 billion in the coming period.
- Within the framework of jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative, the two sides have implemented more than 200 cooperation projects, benefiting nearly two billion people on both sides.
- Recent years have witnessed important cooperation in the field of technological cooperation between China and Arab countries, especially in the field of space technology, the field of fifth generation technology, and green development, and a new wave of cooperation focusing on important areas such as; Technological innovation, industrial transformation, and infrastructure.
- A major partner that imports a quarter of the region’s oil and gas exports.
- Tangible achievements such as the world’s largest solar panel pool, completed by a Chinese company in Abu Dhabi ahead of the COP28 conference.
- China has implemented many projects with high efficiency in Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, the Sultanate of Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar. These projects mainly include ports, roads, networks, and communication centers, Oil, gas projects and petrochemical production. Experts raise reservations from the sample that the experience of working with Chinese companies shows that they prefer to implement these projects from A to Z, by bringing implementation equipment, materials, and labor force from China to implement them. This makes the effectiveness of these projects in local labor, rehabilitation and training markets limited.
Trillion-dollar cake
At the same time Most Arab countries want to diversify their sources of income, and free themselves from dependence on a single or a few sources of income, such as oil, gas, phosphate, iron ore, and others. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq have developed ambitious plans and programs to implement various projects that they hope will help them achieve this. Among them are new advanced industries, smart cities, and large infrastructure projects such as ports, roads, industrial cities, renewable energy stations, communication networks, and industrial institutions in Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, and others. Saudi Arabia is building NEOM, a science and technology city, at a cost of $500 billion. A group of experts raise questions such as: What is the size of China’s participation in these projects, and the extent of Beijing’s ability to pump large direct investments in Arab countries?
However, Beijing, especially at this time when the Chinese economy is suffering from declining growth rates, is strongly seeking to win a share in building huge, attractive projects in the oil-rich Arab countries, and in Egypt, Iraq, and Algeria. Behind this pursuit are the huge sums that will be spent on these projects, which exceed one trillion dollars over the next four years. Wider Chinese participation in it would help Beijing enhance its energy security by ensuring the flow of its oil and gas imports, and achieving large profits for Chinese companies that suffer from the slow growth of the Chinese economy. For the Arab side, such participation enhances opportunities to diversify sources of income.
An economic corridor between China, North Africa, the Middle East and Türkiye
On the other hand, an economic report issued by HSBC Bank in late August 2023 revealed that the economic corridor between China and the Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye region will witness a significant acceleration in business and investment flows during the next five years, in addition to the momentum led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE for the region’s economy.
According to HSBC, the volume of trade exchange between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and China exceeded the volume of trade exchange between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries with the United States and the Eurozone combined for the first time in 2021. There are $178 billion in untapped trade opportunities between China and the Middle East and North Africa region and Türkiye from now until 2027.
It pointed out that China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner in the Middle East, and the volume of bilateral trade exchanges between the two countries reached $106 billion in 2022. While the UAE occupies the place of China’s second largest trading partner in the Arab world, as the value of non-oil trade exchanges Between the two sides exceeded more than $72 billion in 2022, reflecting an 18 percent increase in growth since 2021.
The Egyptian elite’s vision of China
See how the Arab elites view the relationship with the Chinese dragon. One can say with confidence that the Egyptian elite now sees China as an indispensable partner, and even those who see the importance of the relationship with the West, especially the United States and Europe, strongly stress the necessity of striking a balance with a good relationship with China, Russia and India. The Egyptian elite does not hide its adoption of a policy of turning towards the East, nor the importance of Egypt winning a large share of the Belt and Road Initiative.
During lengthy conversations with many of those who interacted strongly with the Chinese dragon, I had many conversations with my friend Dr. Mohamed Fayez Farahat, one of the most prominent Egyptian minds, an expert in international relations, and a specialist in Asian affairs. A few days ago, I asked him: “You chose to write an in-depth book about China with the title “The Belt and Road…the Great Contest of the Twenty-First Century. So my question is: “Will China win the contest?” He answered me with his usual calmness, “Yes, so far it has achieved amazing success,” and Egypt and the Arab countries are keen to participate with the team that is presenting the most important initiative of our time.
Farahat explains the reasons for the success by stressing that the initiative offers a very great opportunity for cooperation and positive interaction between China and the global economy and does not represent any threat to the global order. He ruled out the initiative being a project for hegemony, especially since there are gains for all countries that have joined the initiative, especially in the field of development.
Farahat stressed, “There are great opportunities for the success of the initiative, despite the challenges it faces, which vary according to region. This means that in South Asia and the Middle East, the initiative faces challenges, and in Europe there are other types of challenges.”
He explained, “The essence of these challenges is the idea of political instability and security fragility that exists in a number of countries through which the initiative passes.”
In a striking and decisive assessment, he confirms that “the initiative has become a reality in international politics and therefore it is no longer a theoretical project. Currently, there are huge projects linked to the initiative, and a large number of countries have joined them.”
He concluded his vision by stressing that, “In general, I believe that the chances of the initiative’s success are very high for reasons related to the world’s positive perception of China, especially developing countries, and the Chinese financial resources behind the implementation of the initiative.”
Unprecedented momentum between Cairo and Beijing
For his part, Ambassador Ali Al-Hafny, former Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister and Vice President of the Egyptian-Chinese Friendship Association, monitored the unprecedented momentum witnessed in relations between Cairo and Beijing in various fields.
He strongly emphasized that the number of Chinese companies and investors is increasing significantly in Egypt, as there are many projects being implemented in the New Administrative Capital, and the “Chinese TEDA” region in the northwest of the Gulf of Suez, in addition to the development of ports within the framework of the “Belt and Road Initiative.”
He pointed out that President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s recent visit to China marked a new beginning for the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. He highlighted the announcement by Presidents Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Xi Jinping of the inauguration of the “Year of the Egyptian-Chinese Partnership,” which will witness many diplomatic, economic, commercial, investment, cultural and tourism activities with the aim of advancing and developing bilateral relations in all fields, suggesting that it will be an exceptional year. Also, in the field of tourism, given the noticeable increase in the numbers of Chinese tourists coming to Egypt.
He stressed the importance of investing in the tourism sector and attracting Chinese investors in the tourism industry, especially in light of the strong political desire on both sides to respect achievements of the past ten years.
For his part, Ambassador Hisham Al-Zamiti, the former secretary general of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, referred to the Chinese President’s assertions during his visit to Egypt, and during his meetings with President Sisi, on the importance of Egypt as a strategic partner in the Belt and Road Project, of which the Suez Canal Economic Zone is an essential part, and his encouragement of Chinese companies to invest in the economic zone and in the new capital.
How does China think?
In contrast, the Arab world and the Middle East region are not China’s primary geopolitical influence, but despite that, the region’s importance to Beijing comes from it being a major energy supplier and a large market for Chinese products and investments, especially in the field of infrastructure, ports, and roads that serve the Belt and Road project. The Chinese presence in the Arab world has expanded significantly with the announcement of Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 of the Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as the cornerstone of China’s foreign strategy.
It can be said the Chinese strategy in the Arab world in particular and in the Middle East in general is grounded on economic cooperation. The Chinese President considers that promoting economic growth is the best approach in dealing with the problems affecting the region, as “development is an issue of life and people’s dignity, and it is a race against time and a struggle between hope and despair.” Achieving dignity of life for young people through their development and development is the only way for hope to triumph over despair in their minds, and for them to voluntarily exclude themselves from acts of violence and waves of extremism and terrorism in their behavior.
And the Chinese policy approach towards Arab countries following the Arab Spring was shaped by two documents: The first is the “Vision and Action to Promote Joint Building the Economic Belt of the Silk Road and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” which was issued in 2015. The second is the “China Policy towards Arab Countries” document issued in 2016. The cooperation framework identified in these two documents focuses primarily on economic fields such as energy, infrastructure, trade and investment. In order for Beijing to prove that its approach is not colonialism and does not aspire to dominate the countries of the region, it placed the greatest weight in its vision on the issue of economic cooperation and development, in the Chinese partnership with the countries of the Arab world.
The first document, “Vision and Action,” states that there are five priorities for cooperation between countries within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative in order to develop relations between them, which are: political coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and cultural exchange. The absence of talk about security and military areas in that document supports the Chinese narrative that the Belt and Road Initiative is a development-centered initiative, and not part of a geopolitical strategy. The second document relates to “China’s policy towards Arab countries”. It has been determined China’s vision for cooperation with the Arab world, as China desires to coordinate development strategies with Arab countries, benefit from each other’s advantages and capabilities, and enhance international cooperation in the field of production capacity and enhance cooperation. Central to this framework is the “1 + 2 + 3” cooperation equation, representing the adoption of the energy field as a main axis, the fields of infrastructure and facilitation of trade and investment as two wings, and 3 fields with advanced and modern technology, including nuclear energy, space, satellites, and new energies, as breakthrough points in cooperation, and enhancing cooperation in productive energy.
American decline and Chinese presence
On the other hand, some experts say that Washington has lost its deep interest in the Arab region as result of a number of factors, including: First, the decline in the importance of the region in the American strategy. In one of the national security documents issued on June 2020, by 13 Republican representatives from the members of the National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee in Congress, we find that the determinant of the United States’ relationship with the region was sacrificed because of the threats it represented to American national security and not because of its strategic importance to American interests, which were represented in energy security, securing waterways, and the security of Israel.
Secondly, on the regional level, the tensions between a number of Arab countries and some American administrations, especially the democratic ones, following the events of the Arab Spring, have revealed points of convergence between some Arab countries and both Russia and China, which explains the tendency of Arab countries to open up to greater economic, political and military relations, away from traditional Western partners. This is what experts have been calling the shift east towards greater partnership with China and Russia or diversification of relations with rising global powers.
However, and with a purpose confronting Chinese and Russian influence in the region, the United States is readapting its national security strategies, whether under Trump or Biden, so as not to leave the region almost completely to its competitors.
On the other hand, this Asian rise is moving towards the Arab region and the Islamic world strongly to establish alliances, regain areas of influence and extend control. The Russian intervention in Syria and Libya is one of the most important dimensions of its conflict with western monopoly in the Arab world. Experts believe that Russia’s intervention has prolonged the Syrian and Libyan crises, exacerbating their effects on the entire region, at a time when China continues its economic and security companies’ incursion into the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Gulf.
From economic interests to political and security partnership
The “China Policy towards the Arab Countries” document expresses Beijing’s desire to formulate a more comprehensive policy towards the Arab world and the Middle East region. Although this document does not cover the details and focuses mainly on the “1+2+3 cooperation equation”. It calls for, in general, deepening political cooperation and security coordination with Arab countries. Currently, Beijing continues to publicly downplay the role of major military or geopolitical calculations in driving its relations in the Middle East, but its economic activity continues to be coupled with political and security aspects, which form part of a strategy that is deeper, broader and larger than it may appear at first glance. Although these are initial signs, in the coming years it may become a material reality that will witness a Chinese political and security strategy.
The Arab Spring revolutions in 2011 represented a turning point for China in the Arab world and the Middle East, when it was forced to evacuate 36,000 Chinese workers after notifying them to leave Libya as a result of the escalation of violence due to the civil war. This evacuation posed a major challenge for China due to the lack of military forces or infrastructure nearby, which practically forced it to carry out a long-range rescue mission that included the deployment of four aircrafts and a frigate, in addition to using tourist infrastructure in neighboring countries to temporarily shelter its nationals. This incident highlighted the fragility of Chinese economic interests, coupled with the absence of a political and security strategy. As a result, China sought to establish its own maritime infrastructure, especially in the Red Sea ports, which can form important focal points for carrying out security operations and rescue plans in the future, which developed the Chinese response to the unrest in the Arab world and contributed positively to China’s contribution to the efforts of evacuating 600 of its nationals and 225 of the nationals of ten other countries from Yemen in 2015. In addition to its efforts to evacuate citizens from conflict countries in the Arab world, Beijing participated in anti-piracy and maritime security missions in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden and increased its mediation efforts in the Syrian and Yemen crises. Albeit with caution, China also appointed special envoys to the disputed Middle Eastern countries. Moreover, China’s establishment of its first overseas military base, in Djibouti, as well as the potential militarization of the Pakistani port of Gwadar, are contributing to the growth of the country’s military presence near the sea lanes of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
A number that will not be surpassed in the Middle East
It remains for us to acknowledge that China and Russia were able to find footholds for themselves in the Arab region and they acted on promoting their presence and their alliances with a number of countries in the region, taking advantage of the American confusion in dealing with regional issues and the rise of Arab leaders who are more sensitive in their dealings with interference in their countries’ internal affairs, and more rebellious against the old alliances with the United States and the West, especially after they discovered that they were unreliable allies in the unrest taking place in the region.
At the same time, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative addresses development concerns in the Arab world, and some Arab leaders view the Russian role as a factor of stability in the region and that Moscow is an ally committed to fulfilling its obligations towards its allies, as was demonstrated in Syria. Also, the soft power of these two rising powers works to strengthen that image in the Arab world, which was evident in the reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A global opinion poll showed positive reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine outside the Western countries in China, Malaysia and others and in a number of Arab countries such as Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. This shows the success of Russian soft powers in enhancing Moscow’s image and the Russian narrative of events in the world.
But there are obstacles to this Chinese-Russian role in the Arab region. Whereas, while the two powers seek to inherit the American role in the region, they are not spending the resources required to achieve that role. Russia, despite its growing military presence in some countries of the region, lacks the economic resources to expand to other countries. On the contrary, China’s economic development and investment presence requires Beijing to assume a security and military role, especially to secure energy resources and enhance stability in the vacuum areas left by Washington.
I believe that Beijing and Arab leaders are keen to push the rapprochement further. Despite all the difficulties, there are great opportunities to enhance Arab-Chinese cooperation in the economic field, because there are great benefits for both parties from this cooperation. The global geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine and the rise in traditional energy prices enhance these opportunities, especially in Arab countries. The Chinese newspaper Global Times reveals in a recent report that Chinese-Arab cooperation has shifted from focusing on economy and trade to the “troika” of economy, security and culture, to achieve sustainable development.
My friend Hussein Ismail, an expert in Chinese affairs, says that Beijing is showing a willingness to work in the field of digital infrastructure and the fields of artificial intelligence, at a time when the Gulf countries have begun to move their economies beyond oil. Those areas particularly are one of the most important signs of qualitative development in relations between the two parties, which raises concerns in Washington. One example is the work of the Chinese maritime transport giant “Cosco” in Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates, which the United States fears it will one day turn into a military foothold for China in the region, so I think that security cooperation is inevitably coming.
However, this cooperation, no matter how strengthened it is, will remain surrounded by caution against angering Washington, which enjoys historical and well-established economic and political relations with the Gulf states and is a strategic ally, especially in the security and military fields. It also enjoys a strong military and security presence in the Arab world, especially in the Gulf states, in a way that makes it difficult for any country to tamper with these relations. This presence would ensure that Chinese-Arab relations remain in the future within a framework in which American interests do not conflict with danger. In this context, the warning of the National Security Council spokesman to China on Wednesday, December 7, 2022, can be interpreted. It stated: “Washington… is aware that the Middle East is among the regions in which the Chinese want to expand their influence, but we believe that many of the matters they seek to achieve, and the way they seek it, is not compatible with maintaining the international order governed by specific rules.”
It remains to be acknowledged here that the close intertwining between China and the Arab countries, especially the leader of the Arab world, Egypt and the Gulf states, is incredible, and cannot be reversed or taken back. There is no doubt that an enormous network of interests has been patiently woven, and Beijing cannot abandon it at any cost. The Arab countries, especially Egypt, are adopting a policy of “strategic balance,” and strong openness to the East will work, along with the rest of the Arab countries, to encourage Beijing to become more involved, and to maintain its presence as an “indispensable party” in the balance equations in the Middle East, and in the new multipolar world.