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05/14/2024

A long summer is coming

A long summer is coming

The world is watching the developments on the Russian-Ukrainian and Palestinian-Israeli fronts with bated breath.

We are not talking about limited or ephemeral wars, but about the big explosions of the process that, in the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, will end the West’s “500 years of world domination”.

We are approaching the critical developments on both fronts.

Russia is preparing to expand its military operation towards the Black Sea

There are signs that Russia will expand its military operation in Ukraine to the Odessa-Nikolaev-Kherson triangle on the Black Sea.

The number of interviews in the Russian press with pro-Russian underground resistance groups living in this region and individuals who do not want to share their names is increasing.

Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to take preventive economic measures against the possible currency fluctuations expected to occur with the expansion of the war.

The constant emphasis on Odessa by the US, UK and France is another indicator. At this point, the Crocus attack, which was obviously organized by Western intelligence services, can be considered as a move to distract Russia just before the onset of suitable weather conditions to accelerate the operation.

Ramzan Kadyrov’s call last week to seize Odessa and Kharkov without delay and then negotiate with Zelenskyy can be added to these.

And finally, the changes in the Russian security bureaucracy, especially in the Ministry of Defense, are another sign that Russia will take the military operation to a new phase.

Russia’s summer offensive in the Black Sea explicitly announces itself coming. Well, but what would be the consequences of the expansion of the operation towards the Black Sea?

1. The Ukrainian army, which is short of personnel, weapons and ammunition, is likely to be quickly disbanded. Such a development may also bring the end of the Zelenskyy government. Developments similar to a coup attempt may occur within the Ukrainian state.

Since the Western countries are aware of this, they are trying to deter Russia by saying things like they can “send troops to Odessa” and there are “red lines” for Russian operation.

2. If the war intensifies towards the Black Sea, Western provocations against Russia through Moldova, centered on Transnistria, may increase.

3. Ukrainian attacks on the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant and similar areas may intensify in order to increase the nuclear threat.

4. Attacks on the Russian economy can be expected, especially through exchange rate speculation.

5. A war centered in the Black Sea would mean that the US would increase pressure on Türkiye through the Montreux Convention. In this context, the US may engage in all kinds of provocations similar to the assassination of Ambassador Karlov in order to disrupt Türkiye-Russia relations.

6. If the Ukrainian state is further weakened by the loss of its Black Sea connection, Poland may become more vocal in its claims to control over western Ukraine, particularly Lviv.

7. In order to slow down Russia’s moves, Western intelligence agencies may attempt to turn the current unrest in the former Soviet Republics, particularly Georgia and Armenia, into a new wave of color revolutions.

8. In the event of a complete defeat of Ukraine, the European states will turn to a strategy on finding a compromise with Russia. In such a situation, we can see new moves independent of the US. France and other European countries can join the joint German-Chinese peace plan.

9. With the prospect of a complete Russian victory in the war looming, China will turn to policies to distance Europe from the US and facilitate Eurasian integration in line with the Belt and Road Initiative. In order to resolve the issue in Ukraine, a Russia-China-Europe peace table can be established, which will include Europe and limit the USA.

10. Elections in the US are approaching. If Biden loses in Ukraine, he is likely to lose in the elections as well. That Trump is more positive on relations with Russia is a given. If Russia gets what it wants in Ukraine in the military field, it will turn to a restrained policy to protect its gains and against new provocations of the Anglo-Saxon front until the US elections in November.

The beginning of the end for Israel

The war in Gaza, another point where the West and East are at war, is on an important threshold.

Israel is taking steps to expand its operation in Gaza, which has become a genocide, towards Rafah where Palestinian civilians took refuge.

Recently, the Rafah Border Gate, which connects Egypt and Palestine, was seized by Israeli tanks. 1.2 million civilians, half of them children, are surrounded.

I have already written that a ground invasion of Gaza would be suicide for Israel itself.

Despite Israel’s ground offensive, missiles continue to rain down on Israel from Gaza, Israeli trade is disrupted by the cutting of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Hezbollah’s increasing operations, the Israeli army unable to provide more than a timid response to Iranian missiles, the deepening economic crisis, the rise in anti-Israel protests around the world, and the never-ending street protests at home…

In parallel with all these developments, the fact that Israel, which was built on immigration, has started to lose population is another sign that the suicidal journey of Israel I mentioned is progressing rapidly.

If Israel enters Rafah:

1. It would be a clear violation of the Camp David Accords. At this point, Egypt’s stance will be decisive. The Sisi government’s lack of reaction will increase the anti-government reaction in the country, which is already struggling with a severe economic crisis.

2. Türkiye has decided to completely halt trade with Israel. In case of an attack on Rafah, other countries may take similar decisions. It does not seem possible for the Israeli economy, which is already in a bottleneck, to survive for a long time only with the hot money coming from the US.

3. Gulf countries may make moves on oil prices in order to encourage the US to restrain Israel.

4. Iran’s pressure on Israel through Hezbollah and Houthis will accelerate. The risk of the war spreading will increase. Particularly, the South Lebanon may become a battlefield at this point.

5. The aftermath of the attack on Rafah, home to 1.2 million civilians, half of whom are children, could further escalate the anti-Israel protests that have been already rising worldwide.

6. If the possibility of regional war increases with the operation in Rafah, China, which has emerged with global leadership claims, is likely to take more concrete steps against Israel.

7. In the event of military failure and a prolonged and widespread war, it will become even more difficult for the Netanyahu government to control the reaction within Israel.

Yes, a long and hot summer is approaching.

A summer to decide the fate of the world between the West and the East….

Onur Sinan Güzaltan
Onur Sinan Güzaltan was born in Istanbul in 1985. He had his Bachelors's degree in Law, from the Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne Universty /Paris XII and a Master's degree in International and European Law. He got his certificate of diploma equivalence at Galatasaray University. Later, he got a Master's degree in International Trade Law, at the Institut de Droit des Affaires Internationales, founded jointly by the Sorbonne Universty and the Cairo Universty. In this process, he had served as the Cairo representative for the Aydinlik Newspaper. He has several articles and television streams within the international press, in such as People's Daily, Al Yaum, Al Ahram, Russia Today FranceAl Youm Al Sabea. In addition to being the author of the Tanrı Bizi İster Mi?, a work that studies the 2011-2013 political period in Egypt, he had also contributed to the multi-author study titled Ortadoğu Çıkmazında Türkiye, with an article that focused on the Turkish-Egyptian relations. While currently working as a lawyer, he also writes a weekly column for Aydinlik Newspaper on the subject of international politics and geopolitics.

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