“Doomsday scenario”

“Doomsday scenario”

There is a great conviction that there is a close link between the war in Ukraine and the tragedy in Gaza. They reflect the West’s struggle against Russia and China, and the feverish desire to maintain Western hegemony and American unipolarity. For this reason, American power is doing everything it can to support Ukraine and protect Israel. Some say that the West, led by America, is ready to go to great lengths, and here everyone is talking seriously and fearfully about the Doomsday scenario. I believe that the fears are justified, especially since the fire in the Middle East has become closer due to the heavy losses of the war in Ukraine. If Washington loses in Kyiv, it will not accept another loss in Gaza. Most likely, it will require a great effort to distance the world from the doomsday scenario. So, you see how we reached the edge of the abyss and the way to avoid falling into it.

More than two years ago, the West decided to turn Ukraine into a battlefield with Russia militarily and politically, with the aim of encircling it, suffocating it and isolating it from its surroundings, and also, to curb its rise as a country with economic power in the world.

But after more than two years, during which the West sought, with massive economic sanctions and inciting speeches and propaganda against Russia and its president, to support Kyiv and break Moscow, the numbers, analyzes and facts show that the West “made a mistake in its calculations” and failed in its bet on subjugating Russia and obstructing its rise and spread in its surroundings. And the growth of its economy, and it is now running in presidential elections, in which Putin is expected to be the winner, in the absence of any serious opposition to him, after all the challenges that the country has faced in the past two years.

At the same time, it is no longer an exaggeration to warn of a major fire extending from Gaza to the rest of the region, and most of the forces have begun serious warns of this conflict turning into a doomsday scenario, and after regional leaders intensified their warnings against the situation erupting, here is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko warning of the outbreak of a third world war in the Middle East, if the world allows the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict to escalate. Perhaps the most dangerous thing he said was: “A third world war may break out from there, if they start fighting with Iran. It is no longer Iran that is dragging them, rather they are starting to drag the Iranians… What are you doing?”

What can be done in the face of the ‘Doomsday’ scenario?

I think that the Arab street is angry and indignant, and “sympathy alone” is no longer sufficient in the face of the Israeli massacre against the Palestinian people, and in the face of the Israeli occupation’s aggression against Lebanon and Syria. The street asks Arab leaders, Islamic countries and the rest of the world to do more to stop these barbaric Israeli-American crimes.

It is no longer a secret now that the seriousness of the Israeli threat and the American-European complicity against the security and even the existence of the Arab countries… And after the threat of the “alternative homeland” in Jordan, here we are waking up to the arrogance of the threats of “forced displacement” of Palestinians towards the Egyptian Sinai, and it is no secret to anyone that this would throw these countries into vortexes of chaos, distracting them from the battle of development, dragging them to be on high alert and increasing defense allocations, and casting more clouds and doubts about the stability of these countries and the entire region. It has become clear that the Middle East has already entered the “eye of the hurricane” and the heart of the conflict. Between the West, led by the United States, and the East, led by Russia and China.

With a deep and cold review, the West heralds its attempt to impose the new Middle East – or whatever it is called – in another miserable wave of uncreative chaos to redraw the maps, by adding a Kurdish state at the expense of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Türkiye, and detonating a conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran to seize the territory of Azerbaijan-Iran and its annexation of Azerbaijan, and the division of Sudan, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. It is no longer a secret that American and Western research centers are talking about the necessity of drawing a new Sykes-Picot to redraw the old maps and correct the old Sykes-Picot, from the point of view of American interests specifically before the interests of the West.

Hence, it is clear that everyone is targeted, and their national security is in grave danger, and that whoever believes that he will gain a few crumbs is delusional, and that whoever cooperates or tries to avoid American evil is ignorant or blind to reality, and it is sufficient to point out the fate of the Shah of Iran and Washington’s deception of Saddam Hussein by invading Kuwait. America conspired against the Arab regimes in times of the “Arab Spring”, and now using Ukraine as a “meat grinder” in a proxy war against Russia, and before implicating Iraq and Iran in an internecine war for eight years, and its attempts to implicate Egypt in the Syrian quagmire and enter a war with Türkiye in Libya, and implicating Cairo in a war with Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam.

And now there is a strongly exposed attempt to wage a fierce war against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and in this war, they will try to explode ethnic and religious conflicts between the Arabs and Türkiye on the one hand and Iran and its allies on the other hand. I think that China and Russia will be very hesitant to get directly involved in this terrible quagmire that will set the region back hundreds of years, and the scene of the region will be like the scene of a shattered Europe after World War II. I believe that the destruction of Gaza is just a “sample” of what is being planned for the region, and the message is in blood: Accept to serve America as it wants or wait for your fate.

How to avoid the “Doomsday” scenario in the Middle East

The Arab peoples responded loudly, the resistance responded by force of arms, and the Arab and Islamic forces gathered in a rare moment of unity in rejection of the aggression and these disastrous and barbaric plans. I believe that Arab unity and coordination with Islamic countries are the top priorities at this critical moment.

The most dangerous thing that threatens the Arab world is involvement in the process of “media bickering and throwing accusations and mud between two camps: the peaceful option and the armed struggle option. I believe that this destructive recipe was the cause of our defeats and disasters in 1967 and the first and second Gulf Wars, leading to the destruction of Iraq, Syria and Libya.

Hence, we must ensure that the Palestinian side must unite and reach a formula that both tracks are important and interconnected.

I believe that as the intensity of the battles escalates, and the Israeli enemy escalates its massacres, it is necessary to remain steadfast and not spread frustration and depression. Perhaps the beginning here is that our Palestinian brothers were dying daily before this historic confrontation, and no one heard of them, and their death did not have any resonance even among the Arab masses. While the spirit has returned to these masses today, and the horror that the Palestinians have lived through daily for 75 years has become a scene on all the screens of the world. After slow death was a normal thing that the world did not stop at, the resistance forces imposed a major battle in which the Israelis paid a heavy price for the occupation, and here they remember the following: more than 1,500 Israelis were killed, and more than 5,000 were wounded so far, and the Palestinian resistance was able to capture more than 220, including countless. Less than 50 officers, 50 soldiers, and the rest are all reserves.

At the same time, “Israel” suffered huge economic losses. The shekel lost more than 30% of its value, and tourism in “Israel” was destroyed for the coming years. Ashkelon and Sderot, which have a population of no less than 68 thousand settlers, were also evacuated, and I do not think that anyone will return to them in the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, perhaps the greatest outcome of the current round of bloody conflict is the psychological defeat that “Israel” suffered, especially its “army,” which has not fought any real war since 1973, the return of the Palestinian issue to the forefront of world issues, and the return of spirit in the Arab and Islamic peoples, as well as the free people of the world. And the ugly face of “Israel” appeared to the whole world despite systematic media misinformation.

For every American veto to ensure that “Israel” is not condemned, we witnessed Russia using its veto not to condemn Hamas, and the majority of countries in the world demanded a humanitarian truce, expressed their sympathy with the Palestinian people, and stopped the free train of normalization between “Israel” and the Arabs.

It remains that the battle is long and the scenario is terrifying, but there must be steadfastness and unity, exposing the aggression, activating all weapons, including oil and gas weapons, and freezing the balances in the western banks, and most importantly, coordination between the Arab and Islamic countries, and affirming that the Arabs reject the scenario of the Great Fire and will not be a party to it. And cooperation with international powers such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and the rest of the world so that the world does not burn in the battle on the Day of Resurrection so that “Israel” escapes defeat, especially after it has become a strategic burden on the United States.

Mohamed Sabreen
Mohamed Sabreen is Managing Editor of Al-Ahram Newspaper, Cairo. Contributing Editor for Forbes Arabia Magazine, United Arab Emirates, and a member of EUROMED and the Media Task Force. Among the numerous positions he held previously include the Managing Editor of Al Bayan Newspaper (2006- 2007), Media Advisor for the European Union’s Trade Enhancement Program (TEP-A) (2005-2006), Media Coordinator at Al-Riyadh Development Authority, Saudi Arabia (1991-1994), and has been the Contributing Editor for Al-Shark Al-Awsat Newspaper,  Al-Eqtisadiah Newspaper, Sayidaty Magazine, and Al-Majallah Magazine. He is the Permanent Fellow of the World Press Institute and has been a member of the Egyptian Press Syndicate since 1982.

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May 2024