By Mehmet Enes Beşer
While the drive towards carbon neutrality is gathering pace around the world, the ASEAN community stands at a unique intersection of development and climate stability. The traditional goal of achieving carbon neutrality has been considered the domain of industrialized and wealthy countries. However, today, more and more middle income and developing nations view it as an achievable goal. Carbon neutrality is not just about environment but, rather, it is about building sustainability for economic resilience. Yet again, the path to carbon neutrality in ASEAN is diverse inasmuch as different member states may have different starting positions and capabilities.
ASEAN contributes about 6-7% to greenhouse gas emissions globally, and this share is likely to increase because of rising demand for energy in the region. This region, being one of the most dynamic economically, experiences rapid urbanization, industrialization, and demographic pressure that results in increasing consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas. Furthermore, ASEAN is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, extreme weather patterns, agriculture disruption, etc. That is why carbon neutrality has become a matter of regional survival.
Many countries in ASEAN have declared carbon neutrality goals for various timeframes. Singapore, being a developed country with a capacity for advanced technology and innovations, pledges to reach net-zero by 2050. Singapore relies on large-scale investments in green hydrogen, carbon taxes, and electricity interchanges in the region. Being a small country, its contribution to global CO₂ is low, but its experience in terms of regulating the climate can serve as an example to follow.
Both Thailand and Vietnam pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and 2065, respectively. Vietnam can boast a fairly good track record in deploying renewable energy, in particular, solar power. At the same time, the problem with coal remains, and overcoming it will take huge investments in building energy grids, storage, and coordination of policies. In turn, Thailand pursues its net-zero goals due to its more diversified fuel mix and thriving electric car market. However, the existing fossil fuel subsidies and fragmented policies impede efforts.
Indonesia and Malaysia represent a more complicated case, as both have pledged their carbon neutrality to come by 2060. Despite this promising commitment, they are dependent on coal and oil production. Indonesia faces the task of decarbonizing its numerous archipelagos while ensuring economic growth based on resource extraction. The Just Energy Transition Partnership involving international donors shows an attempt to make steps towards phasing out the use of coal for energy and deploying renewables. In its turn, Malaysia is rich in oil and gas and has to find a balance between fossil fuel dependency and its growing interest in other types of energy.
Finally, such ASEAN members as Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia have many problems to address when tackling their carbon emission issues. Laos uses mostly hydroelectric power, with the majority of electricity going to export; hence, its net-zero prospects are rather favorable. However, deforestation, land degradation, and uncertainties regarding water balance affect Laos’ situation. Moreover, the political instability in Myanmar impedes any attempts to tackle climate problems. Cambodia, similarly, deals with logging activities and its emissions related to agricultural production and land use. These countries face certain challenges in terms of reaching net-zero.
Drivers of carbon neutrality in ASEAN involve energy transition, green finance, sustainable land management, and technologies. Coal phase-out is one of the prerequisites for carbon neutrality in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines since all three rely on coal. There is potential for renewables in ASEAN, but it requires considerable investments in the electricity grid and policy measures. The project on regional power integration of ASEAN—ASEAN Power Grid—could ensure better interchanges of electricity within the bloc and allow accessing low carbon power.
Managing forests and ensuring sustainable land use is another key driver for carbon neutrality. ASEAN boasts some of the largest peatlands and tropical rainforests. However, due to such industries as oil palms and timber production, the problem with deforestation persists. Hence, the development of forestry, nature-based solutions, and land-use policies are of crucial importance for ASEAN in its fight against carbon emissions.
Green finance is also an important driver of carbon neutrality in ASEAN. To reach net-zero goals, the bloc will need substantial investment from both public and private sectors, which presupposes the development of regulatory frameworks. Moreover, the carbon price should be aligned with regional interests to ensure that financial resources are climate-related. Currently, ASEAN sees positive dynamics with the development of green bonds in Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, although overall regional capital markets lack climate integration.
The final driver is technology, which covers all types of innovative solutions ranging from electric cars to carbon capture facilities, smart grids, and green hydrogen. It is important to ensure coordinated research and development and balanced technology portfolios. Otherwise, there will be many duplicate projects leading to inefficiency.
To conclude, ASEAN’s path towards carbon neutrality does exist, although it is highly conditional. Apart from the need to change energy systems, finances, and land-use practices, reaching net-zero goals depends on political will. The diversity of ASEAN countries means that no universal template of actions can be designed. Still, there is an opportunity to specialize, learn from each other, and collaborate. Therefore, ASEAN may emerge as a significant player in terms of carbon neutrality.