By Mohammed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt
The task was not very difficult for Russia under Vladimir Putin, the new Tsar in the Kremlin, in restoring old relations in the Middle East, and even winning new friends, whether in Iran or the Gulf states, most notably the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The recipe was not complicated, but rather a little patience and a lot of respect, intertwined interests, and most importantly, proving that the new Russia is strong and a “trustworthy” partner, and not a comrade who abandons you in a moment of crisis like the West.
Most likely, the “trump card” was the West’s mistakes towards the peoples of the region and Washington’s sins towards its friends among the rulers, and the growing hostility towards America in light of its endless wars and its blatant support for the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, or the crimes of George Bush Jr., former President of America. and Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, against the Iraqi people during the invasion of Iraq.
Perhaps the leaders of Washington and the West did not realize that “history does not die” in the Middle East. But Putin and his companions and his heirs, the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire, realized this, and they did nothing but bet on “the growing hostility” to Washington. Now, Moscow is playing this card and threatening the West, in the midst of its raging conflict with it, and in light of the accelerating escalation of the war in Ukraine, that it will provide advanced weapons to countries and active groups that are hostile to Washington in many countries of the world, especially in the Middle East. See how Moscow is winning and Washington is losing at this moment, and how the Middle East is now in the “eye of the hurricane” of the new Cold War, and are the accelerating tensions threatening the ability of the active parties in the region to extinguish the fires?
Winning Russian strategy
Putin was able to revive the Russian nation, get the country back on its feet, and exploit the legacy of the Soviet Union. We are now witnessing Moscow’s return to previous Soviet policies in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, supporting anti-Washington, Paris, and London forces, and exploiting the growing hostility to American policies.
On the other hand, Putin is working hard to form a global alliance against Western hegemony, developing a new concept of politics, which has made it closely related to the economy. He has strongly succeeded in strengthening his relations with the countries of the South from the economic perspective and has been able to establish a working relationship and coordination with Saudi Arabia and Iran regarding producing oil, maintaining good prices for producers, and not responding to Washington’s desire to increase production and reduce prices. This is the opposite of what happened before and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Among Putin’s most prominent successes comes the growing relationship with Iran. Putin’s visit to Tehran on October 16, 2007 was a success, which was the first in 64 years, and the second by a Russian leader after Joseph Stalin, in moving Russian-Iranian relations to the level of strategic partnership in various fields. Three basic axes can be identified for the growing strategic partnership between Russia and Iran: energy, weapons, and regional issues of common interest.
At the same time, researcher Cyril Ordanio confirmed Russia, led by Putin, is pursuing a winning media and political strategy in the Middle East, and the RT Arabic channel and “Sputnik” constitute its “long arm” in the countries of the region. It was able to convince public opinion of Russia’s point of view regarding the war against Ukraine, and that it is part of its war against Western hegemony.
The retired colonel and researcher at the Baltic Defense Institute wrote that the Russian “Minimax strategy” is based on minimum commitment in exchange for achieving maximum gains.
Demanding Russia as a negotiator on Middle East issues
In a remarkable development Deputy Head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Musa Abu Marzouk, told RIA Novosti that Hamas wants Russia to become the guarantor of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
For his part, the Israeli expert in international relations and national security, Simon Tsippis Recently said, Israel has become another arena of conflict between Russia and the United States. The Gaza war is witnessing differing positions on both sides. The Americans supported the Jewish state, while Moscow maintained neutrality, which Tel Aviv sees as slightly in favor of Hamas.
Meanwhile, Hamas has no other choice but to use Russia as an intermediary. In the past, Qatar played this role, but it failed during the entire conflict in Gaza to achieve significant success. There are no longer many countries willing to help the parties achieve peace. However, all participants in the confrontation are interested in achieving agreements. “Therefore, there is a need for a mediator.”
Other Arab countries that support Hamas are unlikely to replace Qatar. For a long time, Türkiye has been considered a mediator, but there is a complex history of relations between it and Israel, so negotiations with its participation are unlikely to end successfully.
On the other hand, the Israeli expert believes that Russia has great opportunities to resolve the conflict in Gaza, given that there is a long history of cooperation between Moscow and the Jewish state, which can help in the negotiations.
Tsippis asserts that Washington will not want to appoint Moscow as a mediator, although it will likely have to agree to this fact, because the last word on this issue belongs to the warring parties.
On the other hand, Russia presents itself as an important player in the Gulf region with a different vision from the West. Through a correct reading of the reality in the Arabian Gulf region, it believes that maintaining security and stability in the region remains dependent on the will of a group of influential countries in the region and outside it, and that consensus and understanding between these forces is the decisive factor in achieving regional stability. Therefore, developing a collective security system is the ideal formula for ensuring the security of the Arabian Gulf from the Russian point of view, similar to other experiences such as the Shanghai Group. The Russian vision in this regard is completely different from the vision of other major countries such as the USA, which sees the bilateral relations and understandings between it and the Gulf states as the most important factor in achieving stability in the region.
At the same time, informed Arab sources recently reported that Russia appears to have succeeded in opening the way for a Turkish-Syrian reconciliation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed last Friday that “there is no reason” not to establish relations between Ankara and Damascus, indicating that Türkiye has no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs, and expressed his readiness to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Circles close to President Erdogan expect this meeting to put the dots on the path to final reconciliation between Damascus and Ankara after a series of intensive military, intelligence and diplomatic meetings, to be crowned by an expected meeting of President Erdogan with President Assad in Baghdad, and perhaps with the participation of some leaders of the region, including President Sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah of Jordan, President of the Emirates Mohammed bin Zayed, and the Iranian president-elect.
At the same time, the Aydinlik, Turkish newspaper, reported last week that two military delegations from Syria and Türkiye met at the Russian “Hmeimim” air base, southeast of Latakia. The Turkish newspaper claimed that the meeting took place the day after the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and reported that the second meeting between the two delegations will be held in Baghdad.
In May last year, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Türkiye and Syria was held in Moscow to formulate a road map to improve tense relations between Ankara and Damascus. This was the first official meeting of their top diplomats since the beginning of the Syrian civil war.
Do not allow Russia to win in Ukraine and “ignite” the Middle East
To begin with, the connection between the war on Gaza and the Russian-Ukrainian war is no longer strange or ambiguous. And the danger of ignition in the Middle East exists due to America and Europe’s confrontation with Russia and China.
The reality of the situation is that we are witnessing a complex game of nations, in which every move of one party is linked to the move of the other party in the game, and the process of “move” and “counter-move” is like a frighteningly silent game of chess. Because players move slowly and have no desire to stop until the end of the match.
What is sad here is that we are facing a horrific meat grinder. The Western side does not want to stop, does not care about the number of victims, is obsessed with the lust for revenge, is driven by its narrow interests in dominating the world, and is encouraged by the fact that the Palestinians And Ukrainians are the ones paying the price, and Europe is helpless and participates submissively in financing and supporting Washington in its “endless wars.”
It may seem strange that Ukraine continues in a war that should not have occurred, but it continues despite the fact that it is losing the lives of its best young people, more land, and its independence, and what is more dangerous is that it is gambling with its existence as a country, for the benefit of Uncle Sam.
The deep state in Washington seems relaxed, as it only wants to exhaust Russia, China, Europe, and the rest of the allies in Asia and other places, so that the “single superpower” continues by the fund of others, whether with their money or their lives.
While Ukraine loses, Zelensky the puppet does not stop, and Netanyahu’s madness increases the more he dives deeper into the Gaza quagmire. In both cases, Zelensky and Netanyahu seem “hostage” to Biden’s move, which is governed by the calculations of the deep American state and his electoral calculations.
I believe that all indicators confirm that the Ukraine war will continue and will never be allowed to stop. The West is working to increase the degree of escalation and will not allow Putin to declare any victory, even partial.
Hence the decision to allow Ukraine to use NATO weapons against targets deep in Russia’s territory, and the restrictions imposed on supplying Kiev with advanced weapons, most notably F-16 aircraft and long-range missiles, were lifted, with French President Macron threatening to send Western experts to train Zelensky’s forces inside Ukraine.
Most military experts agree that Russia will not leave these threats unanswered.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, recently threatened to supply “enemies of the Western world” with all possible weapons, in response to the sanctions imposed on Russia. Medvedev wrote on his Telegram account that the new Western sanctions must be dealt with in a way that causes the greatest harm to those countries that imposed restrictions. He said, “Is the West afraid of Russian weapons reaching its enemies?” He added: “Then we must provide them with all Possible weapons, except nuclear weapons for now.
Medvedev said that the United States “declared war on Russia without rules,” and “there may be new European sanctions,” but Russia “does not need to respond to these sanctions, as it has learned to coexist and adapt to them.”
This came after the US Treasury Department announced, last Wednesday, the imposition of a new package of sanctions linked to Russia, including 33 individuals, 327 entities, and 7 ships. Since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, many Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, providing financial and military support to the Kiev regime.
Earlier, Medvedev confirmed that the United States and its allies may face direct use of Russian weapons by third parties.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced earlier that Russia might consider supplying regions of the world with its long-range weapons, to direct sensitive strikes against countries that supply Ukraine with weapons.
Meanwhile, Russian Special Forces Colonel Anatoly Matveychuk revealed a serious surprise about how Moscow may respond, saying, “Of course, we cannot, now, simply direct our guns and missiles and start firing at military targets, for example, in the territory of Poland, Romania or Germany. But we can actually perform proxy actions,” here he explodes the surprise.
Colonel Anatoly clearly says, “We have many allies around the world who hate the United States and the West, and launch attacks against them, primarily in Iraq and Syria, where there are bases and facilities for the American military. And we can provide the Houthis, for example, with coastal missile systems such as the Bal or Bastion, which can strike ships belonging to the British, US, and other NATO navies.”
I believe that this represents a new shift in the conflict between Russia and the West. In the beginning, both sides used foreign fighters, then the West increased weapons aid and its quality, the volume of training and intelligence information, and now advanced weapons and Western incitement to strike the Russian depth.
Is the confrontation sliding towards a destructive war, and all goals and means have become legitimate? This appears to be the case, despite the presence of unannounced negotiations at the level of military diplomatic channels, and Moscow’s continuous warning to the United States and Britain that it will destroy reconnaissance aircraft if the air sorties they carry out near its borders are not stopped. But despite all that, the war continues amidst unserious demonstrations of peace, which seems far away now.
It remains that the American administration and the European Union on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other hand, are playing a complex game of nations. On the one hand, Washington will not allow a humiliating defeat now, and Europe is afraid of the arrival of Trump, shaking his hand and leaving it to face the remnants of the confrontation with Moscow, diving into the Ukraine swamp or dragging its tails. The disappointment and failure to achieve results justify the billions of dollars spent and highlight it’s shameful inability without Washington. As for China, it feels comfortable that Washington and Brussels are drowning in this war that has no end in sight.
On the other hand, Russia does not have the luxury of accepting the West’s peace and returning everything to Ukraine. This is political suicide for Putin, and the West has left him no choice but to rush forward. The closer it gets to victory, the more the West escalates to confront it, which prompts it to escalate a step further. Now, the most dangerous step is to expand and ignite the “proxy war” from Ukraine to Syria, Iraq and Yemen, resulting in a war in Gaza and Lebanon, and dragging Iran into the war.
Here the choice will be either to calm Gaza and make promises for a political path for the Palestinian issue and try to restore Iran and integrate it into the region through reconciliations and understandings, to attract her Far from Moscow and Beijing. Or, on the other hand, the Middle East will ignite in a game of “biting fingers” waiting for the announcement of stopping this round and moving to the Asian theater to start the “Taiwan War.” All scenarios are open and will appear clearly after the US elections.
What does Moscow think?
If we try to pause for a moment to see how Moscow thinks, then in reality some experts consider Russia’s arms sales, military ties, and paramilitary activity throughout the Middle East to be the cornerstone of expanding its influence in the region and advancing its anti-Western strategic interests. As conflict across the Middle East continues to escalate, the future position of Russia and the United States in the region remains at the forefront of foreign policy discussions both in the West and the East. However, this discussion would be incomplete without considering Russia’s role in the region and, specifically, how Moscow uses defense ties to engage in long-term competition with the West in the Middle East.
In light of the continuing escalation between Iran and its allies on the one hand, and the United States and Israel on the other, the issue of long-term competition between the great powers in the region emerges. For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he is fighting an existential battle with the United States, and the Middle East is the arena in which he believes Russia is capable of shaping this competition.
And before the war against Ukraine in February 2022, the Middle East and North Africa region emerged as the second most important market for Russian arms. Russia has once again emerged as one of the world’s largest arms exporters, second only to the United States.
However, with Moscow’s focus on Ukraine, it is inevitably tracking the status of the Russian arms trade and how Russia works through its defense relations in the Middle East to enhance its influence and overall strategic interests. The Russian defense presence in the Middle East is based on three pillars: arms sales and joint military exercises, access to military bases, and the use of paramilitary forces, most notably the “Wagner Group,” which was recently renamed “Africa Corps.”
Arms deals with the Middle East
Data available from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Russia’s share of global arms exports declined by war with Ukraine. However, the main reason for this trend is that India, the largest buyer of Russian arms, has significantly reduced its imports of these weapons, although India has recently significantly increased its imports of Russian oil.
Russia has continued to focus on arms sales in the Middle East, which compete with traditionally dominant sales from the West. In February 2021, the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation reported that military exports to the Middle East amounted to about $6 billion annually over the past five years, or between 40 and 50 percent of total military exports. Russia has also emerged as Algeria’s largest arms supplier by 2021, in particular, by supplying it with some of its most advanced systems, such as fighter jets, including the Sukhoi 57.
And after the war in Ukraine, reports citing US government officials said that Russian arms supplies have become restricted by sanctions, export controls, Russia is banned from using the SWIFT payment system, and its focus has shifted towards supporting its forces in Ukraine. Indeed, officials in the Middle East privately expressed concern at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine that Russia would not be able to fulfill existing contracts. Two years later, these fears were confirmed after the Russian arms industry was forced to turn its full attention towards maintaining and reconstructing its forces in Ukraine.
And with The progress of the war, some wondered whether Russian military performance in Ukraine would limit interest in Russian weapons in the region. However, there was no decline in interest as there was after the US-led coalition destroyed the Soviet-trained and equipped Iraqi army in 1991.
The reasons for this current reality are likely to include the types of weapons that Russia exports, which mainly involve aircraft, aircraft engines and missiles. Weapons which were not performed good In Ukraine, such as tanks and armored combat vehicles, are not essential exports.
Russian air defense systems have not proven to fail. Thus, interest in Russian aircraft, missiles and air defense systems is likely to continue. In contrast, the use by The Houthis of drones against Saudi oil terminals in Abqaiq in September 2019, and the Houthis’ use of these drones and ballistic missiles, keeps Russian air defense weapons an important commodity and desired by countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Indeed, in recent months, some regional officials have indicated in private circles that Western sanctions are preventing the purchase of more Russian weapons, implying that their interest in Russian weapons has not diminished. In May 2023 came Representatives of several sanctioned Russian arms manufacturers with direct links to the Russian military – which include companies that produce helicopters and have been deployed to fight in Ukraine – traveled to Saudi Arabia to participate in a trade event.
At the end of the year, Putin personally visited both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where he declared that the UAE was Russia’s main trading partner in the Arab world. According to some reports, topics of discussion during those meetings included trade in advanced technology. For its part, Algeria held a military dialogue with Russia at the end of 2023.
To be sure, there are signs that things are not good with Rosoboronexport, the Russian state arms manufacturer. Russia has sought to recover parts of defense systems that it exported to other countries to replenish its own stock of weapons that it consumed in Ukraine.
This overall picture suggests that while Russia’s ability to export weapons to the Middle East may be limited in the long term, Moscow remains interested in the region, which it views as an important factor in balancing the great power competition sweeping across it. Arms sales are likely to remain at the top of Moscow’s foreign policy spear in this contest.
“A relationship governed by interests” between Moscow and Tehran
On the other hand, the relationship between Moscow and Tehran must be taken into account, despite what seems like an ideological contradiction Between the Russian Federation, the heir to the collapsed Soviet Union in 1991, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, founded on jurist mandate theory. The overlapping national interests of both Tehran and Moscow, especially in recent years, was the motivation to enhance relationships. The duality between them, in a way that appears that it may be overcome differences Ideological and historical hostilities. Since Vladimir Putin took power in Russia in 2000, he has sought to move towards the Middle East and move on more than one front with the aim of challenging the United States and the Western powers allied with it. And on this floor, the Russian partnership came with a number of Middle Eastern countries, most notably Iran.
Some experts say that these alliances gave Russia great influence in the region, and this was reflected in Iran’s regional situation, its intervention in a number of countries in the region increased, most notably Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Experts point out to The manifestations of Russian interference in the region appeared through supporting the Iranian nuclear program, and adopting a vision that makes… Iran area of influence Russian in the region, due to what it enjoys Iran From a geopolitical position, it overlooks the Caucasus and the Arabian Gulf And area Asia Central on the one hand, and on the other hand the Iran for the region, it constitutes a scarecrow through which Russia can influence the countries of the region and the West alike. And these experts go to Through this alliance with Tehran, Russia aims to achieve interim tactical or strategic gains that would crystallize a Russian imperial project.
Closer military relations with Iran
The invasion of Ukraine accelerated strategic cooperation between Russia and Iran, including in the military sphere. This trend is likely to continue.
In the wake of the invasion, multiple reports pointed to a broader high-tech and defense partnership, and US officials began to express their concerns publicly. In late 2022, John Kirby, an official at the US National Security Council, noted that “Russia is providing Iran with an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is changing their relationship.”
Iran’s provision of Shahed attack drones for use in Ukraine has received a lot of attention, and is certainly significant, as no other country except Iran has willingly helped Russia in Ukraine. But what Russia is offering Iran deserves at least as much attention. At the end of 2023, the Iranian Deputy Defense Minister told Tasnim News Agency that Iran had finalized arrangements for the delivery of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and helicopters to Tehran.
The Russians have not yet confirmed the deal, but what has been confirmed is the export of training aircraft to Iran, which would enable Iranian pilots to make the leap to the much more advanced aircraft, the Su-35. If this deal is implemented, it will significantly increase Tehran’s ability to conduct offensive air operations by replacing its old stock of American aircraft from the 1970s, which the Shah purchased before the outbreak of the “Islamic Revolution.”
In the eyes of some, Iran still represents a major threat to the Gulf states, and providing Su-35 aircraft to Iran would change the military balance within the region in favor of Iran, prompting the Gulf states to change their security planning. But even if the agreement is not implemented, a trend of strategic cooperation has already emerged, including through bilateral Russian-Iranian maneuvers and multilateral Russian, Chinese, and Iranian maneuvers, in a pattern dating back at least five years.
In late 2019, when Russia, China, and Iran conducted their first trilateral military exercises, Brigadier General Gholamreza Tahani told Iranian Press TV that the exercises were an indication that relations between these three countries had reached a “useful level.” This was the first time that Iran conducted joint exercises with two global naval forces of this size.
This trend has continued ever since. At the end of 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced progress in the Russian-Iranian treaty on the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” At the beginning of the year, the Russian “TASS” agency reported that the document was being finalized and was set to confirm bilateral respect for each country’s sovereignty.
With diplomatic and military ties becoming more frequent and intense, it is not surprising that Iran is among the newest members to join BRICS. The UAE joined, while Saudi Arabia remained invited but did not agree on officially joining the group. With Russia assuming the presidency of the group on the first of January of this year, it will be important to watch whether Russia will try to win over many in the Middle East and Africa by signing defensive contracts.
Read future papers
The question remains: How will Putin behave in the coming days in his confrontation with the West and America? Has he lost all his hopes for a difficult coexistence with Washington, and his desire for Russia to be accepted in Europe as a great nation, possessing what it offers to the economies of European countries in terms of oil, gas, foodstuffs, and nuclear energy technology? Or will Washington and Europe force him to turn forcefully towards the Asian East, the Middle East, and the strongly rising Global South, which is now imposing itself as a party to a new world order that is now being formed?
It is important to follow up on the translation of the threats of Putin, Medvedev, and the Russian elite regarding supplying countries and groups hostile to the West and America with advanced weapons, and who will appear strongly on the scene of events, the bold or the cautious Putin. What appears now is an escalation of the Russian attack and an escalation of warnings to NATO countries of the necessity of taking up the demand for non-escalation to settle the Ukraine conflict peacefully. However, previous evidence has taught us that Putin carries out his threats in the end.
I believe that the Iranian arena is a strong candidate for Putin’s next response, and we will witness a significant growth in military cooperation between the two countries during the coming period. The most important reasons are Russia’s desire to respond to NATO’s escalation in Ukraine, and its desire to restore its position in the arms market and increase its share in this market, given the revenues from the arms trade that represent an indispensable resource for Russia. In addition to Iran’s awareness that Russia is the primary source available to it for obtaining weapons and military technology, in light of the embargo imposed on it by the United States and Europe.
Russia always emphasizes that its military cooperation with Iran is not directed against any third party, and that it is to enhance Iran’s defense capabilities, and that Russia is helping Iran modernize its military machinery to confront the various threats to which it is exposed.
On the other hand, Russia will accelerate its nuclear cooperation with Tehran, and it distinguishes between the peacefulness of the Iranian nuclear program at the present time, which Russia accepts, and what it may develop into in the future, if Iran decides to convert its nuclear capabilities to military use, which is What Russia is trying to prevent. Russia wants a strong Iran, but not to the extent that it threatens Russia itself. However, the fact that Iran possesses nuclear weapons can be exploited as a bargaining chip with the West, Israel, and the countries of the region.
Moscow can justify its cooperation with Iran by intensifying its desire to cooperate with countries in the region in the field of nuclear energy.
In the face of Arab fears in general, and Gulf countries in particular, about the Iranian nuclear program, Russia supports the right of the Arab Gulf states to possess nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially since they are members of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and Moscow has expressed its full readiness to develop Cooperation in this field, and this was among the areas that were discussed during President Putin’s visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in February 2007.
This is consistent with the general orientation of Russian policy regarding the spread of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, as Russia adopts a purely economic vision towards this matter, seeing it as a “deal,” and does not place any political restrictions on cooperation with any country in the world in this field. I believe that Putin has important cards, and is not in a rush to escalate, but he is controlling the pace of feeding the growing feeling of hatred for the West, Europe, and America. He is ready and close to picking up “the fruit when it falls,” which is what is happening in Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, India, Türkiye, Hungary, and Serbia, and what we are witnessing strongly with Libya, Sudan, and the Sahel and Sahara countries. The French and American presence and influence are evaporating, especially in Africa, and Moscow comes to seize the “fruit” without a high price, but because of growing hostility towards the West. Do you think it’s time for the Middle East? Most likely, it will be a long and bitter battle.