Honduras turned into Monroe Doctrine battleground

6.5 million citizens are called in Honduras to elect their next president today. Three candidates have chances to win in an election that the US president has turned into his own competition.

Already in the recent parliamentarian elections in Argentina had Donald Trump presented his policy. US meddling into elections elsewhere is nothing new, but usually done with some discretion. Not so in Argentina, where Trump openly called citizens to vote for President Milei’s party, even threatening that in case of his defeat, relations would worsen. To sweeten the offer, the finance minister and leading banking figures had been sent to Buenos Aires to prepare credit agreements with the crisis-battling country.

Next chapter seems to be Honduras.

Today, Hondurans will elect their president, parliament and representatives in the Central American regional parliament.

The Honduras 2025 elections come at a critical juncture. President Xiomara Castro’s administration—the first leftist government in the country’s history—is seeking to secure a second term for its political project under the banner of the Liberty and Refoundation (Libre) party. But it faces fierce opposition from traditional elites and mounting external interference, including explicit U.S. backing for a conservative candidate.

For the presidency, three candidates have leading chances: Rixi Moncada of the Party of Liberty and Refoundation, the current governing force; Salvador Nasralla, 2022-24 Vice President and candidate of the Liberal Party, and Nasry Asfura, National Party of Honduras.

With five presidential candidates officially registered and polls showing a tight three-way race, the outcome hinges on a large bloc of undecided voters—between 20% and 35% of the electorate—who could tip the balance in a system where a simple majority is sufficient to win.

In prior political eras, under the leadership of both National and Liberal Party administrations, Honduras consistently functioned as an amenable and cooperative partner, actively aligning with the United States’ established policy objectives. This alignment was particularly evident in key areas such as migration control, where Honduran authorities collaborated closely with American initiatives aimed at managing population movements. Similarly, the nation played a significant role in counter-narcotics efforts, working in tandem with U.S. agencies to combat illegal drug trafficking. Furthermore, Honduras was a reliable ally in the broader geopolitical strategy of containing leftist movements across the region, reflecting a long-standing pattern of cooperation with American foreign policy.

But in the first term of LIBRE government, things changed, most visibly in the foreign policy, where Honduras stopped recognizing Taiwan and established relations with the People’s Republic of China. Honduras has been governed since 2021 by President Xiomara Castro, who has forged close ties with Cuba and Venezuela, two countries whose governments the Trump administration sees as dictatorships. Current President Xiomara Castro had even announced to establish socialism, though the practice is more adequately described as advancing social policies – still a high bet in a country battled in narcotrafficking and depending on remedies migrants send back home from the US.

The elections are taking place in a context of accusations of fraud and violence. In audio recordings released October 2025, oppositional politicians discuss “plans manipulate the popular vote”.

Days before the elections, US President Donald Trump entered the race. “I cannot work with Moncada or with the communists. Nasralla is not a trustworthy partner for freedom. I hope the people of Honduras vote for democracy and choose Tito Asfura as president,” Trump said on Truth Social. “If he (Asfura) doesn’t win, the United States will not be throwing good money after bad,” he added, echoing threats he made in support of Argentine President Javier Milei’s party in that country’s recent midterms. Trump stated he could work together with Asfura “to combat the narco-communists and provide the necessary aid to the Honduran people.” Trump added that Asfura “stands up for democracy and fights against Maduro,” the Venezuelan President.

In another step, President Donald Trump said Friday that he will be pardoning former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who in 2024 was convicted for drug trafficking and weapons charges and sentenced to 45 years in prison. Hernandez’ wife has been a precandidate against Asfura.

Meanwhile, Trump’s anti-immigrations policies are affecting Hondurans deeply. Nearly 30,000 Honduran migrants have been deported from the United States since he returned to office in January. He has also revoked the temporary protected status of a further 51,000 Honduran migrants, making them vulnerable to expulsion.

The clampdown has dealt a severe blow to the country of 11 million people, which received $10 billion in remittances from overseas citizens in 2024, representing 27 percent of GDP.

Amid domestic fraud accusations, US intervention, the armed forces’ stance, Hondurans face a tense election day.

For Latin America, the outcome in Honduras carries symbolic weight. A Libre victory would reinforce the “pink tide” resurgence seen in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico. A return of the National Party could signal a rollback of progressive gains and renewed U.S. dominance in the Northern Triangle.