Israel’s attacks on Iran: Israel has opened the door to a long and extensive war

By Onur Sinan Güzaltan

Israel has launched a wave of air strikes on Iran, hitting military leaders, nuclear and military sites overnight on 13th June.

Hours after Israel’s attack, UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was a guest on Türkiye’s Ulusal Kanal.

We present the question directed to Güzaltan and his answers.

We’d like to begin with your initial assessment of Israel’s attack…

Firstly, I express our feelings of solidarity with the brotherly and neighboring people of Iran.

There has been long-standing tension and limited strikes between Israel and Iran, but this time, with Israel targeting Iran’s military leadership, nuclear facilities, and civilian settlements, we’ve entered a new phase. In my view, this marks the beginning of a long and extensive war.

Secondly, despite statements to the contrary from US officials, Israel could not have carried out this attack without American support. Israel simply doesn’t have the strength and courage to do it alone. Iran’s statements point to this too.

I believe this war won’t be limited to just Israeli and Iranian soil. These two powers and their supporters will confront across several fronts -Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine. So as a region, we are entering a very difficult and turbulent period.

How do you think Iran will respond?

This attack has crossed all of Iran’s red lines. Therefore, it demands a response of equal force. Iran could strike directly to Israel or target US and Israeli positions in the region. At this point, we can say, “the genie is out of the bottle”. The era of “limited strikes” is over. We are now in an open-ended process. What matters most now is how strongly the powers backing Israel, primarily the US, and those backing Iran, mainly China and Russia, will stand behind them.

Recent history shows us that when you back down, imperialism only backs you into a corner. Look at Iraq, Libya, and Yugoslavia. Look at Ukraine. Russia draws red lines, and the West crosses them. Now it’s Iran’s red lines being crossed. This isn’t a problem that can be solved by simply drawing lines or postponing conflict. Only by striking back, and doing so in multiple locations, can the enemy be pushed back.

Another critical factor in Iran’s response will be the stance of the regional countries. If they don’t stand with Iran and instead try to exploit the situation -unfortunately this is what we’ve seen till now-then imperialism advances more rapidly and more easily. In this sense, growing ties between Iran and Egypt and between Iran and Türkiye are very important. These need to be strengthened.

Unfortunately, in Türkiye, there are people who see Israel’s attack on Iran as an “opportunity” to be taken advantage of. I don’t believe these people are speaking in the interest of Türkiye. They are acting in line with the interests of other countries. Anyone who truly cares for Türkiye’s sovereignty and independence cannot side with Israel.

Is it possible that the US could become more involved in the conflict? Russia has said that the door to negotiations is still open. Do you think that’s still realistic?

The US is already involved. Statements by US officials claiming otherwise say nothing. The US is using Israel as a tool to pressure Iran into a deal that goes against its interests. Could the US get directly involved on the ground? Well, in intelligence terms, they have been involved from the very beginning, standing fully behind Israel. Despite recent media reports about cracks between Trump and Israel, we still see these two forces moving together when it really matters. The US will not abandon Israel. Israel is Washington’s outpost in the region and is of strategic importance to the US.

To what extent will Russia and China stand with Iran?

As I said earlier, how firmly Russia and China stand behind Iran is of critical importance. If Israel’s attacks continue and Iran begins to weaken, or in the worst-case scenario if Iran falls altogether, it will trigger a vortex not just for the region, but for all of Eurasia and Asia as well. I believe Russia and China are aware of this and will act accordingly. Because if Iran is left alone against the US-Israel, yes, it is a strong country with a large military, population, economy, and deep-rooted statehood tradition, but the countries it faces are major powers.

In that worst-case scenario, especially after the genocide in Gaza and the fall of Assad in Syria which already pushed the region into chaos, we could see consequences extending even to China’s Xinjiang Uyghur region.

Iran and Russia had signed the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation” on 17 January 2025. That treaty has requirements. As for Russia, how far the West pushes the war in Ukraine will be a decisive factor. Because for Russia to fully support Iran, it needs to first gain the upper hand in Ukraine.

All of this tells us one thing: irreconcilable contradictions have emerged between East and West. And those contradictions will not be resolved until one side is decisively defeated. This war is a matter of survival for both Israel and Iran. Just like the Russia-Ukraine war, there may be temporary and partial compromises along the way, but I don’t believe a long-term peace is possible.