This war is just one of the many front lines. Lasting peace seems only possible when the old order comes to a final end.
This war is just one of the many front lines. Lasting peace seems only possible when the old order comes to a final end.
By Onur Sinan Güzaltan
February 24, 2022…
More than three years have passed since Russia launched its military operations in Ukraine.
During this time, the world has changed irreversibly.
The world has changed irreversibly
Ukraine has lost a significant portion of its territory and become a failed state.
The economic and political sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and the EU have backfired like a boomerang: In the US, Trump, advocating ending the war with Russia, won the election, while Europe plunged into a deep political and economic crisis. Trump’s US and Europe began to drift apart rapidly.
Russia and China have grown closer than perhaps at any point in their histories. Political, economic, and military cooperation between the two countries continues to deepen.
Meanwhile, on the southern front, the war between the US/Israel and Iran has spilled over into Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen. Despite committing genocide, Israel failed to achieve its objectives in Palestine. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s resistance pushed back the IDF (Thazal). And in Yemen, the Houthis continue to target Tel Aviv and global trade routes via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
By the end of 2024 came a countermove. Syria fell. HTS, backed by the US, UK, and Israel, took control of Damascus. Israel expanded its occupation in the Syrian territory. In the north of the country, steps are being taken toward establishing a PKK/YPG state (the Second Israel) under US protection. The connection between Iran and other resistance hubs through Syria was effectively severed.
In the very back of the front, tensions between China and the US have escalated into a trade and customs war. The possibility of a direct military conflict over Taiwan is not so far-fetched…
Is rewinding the tape possible?
And now, we are discussing whether it’s still possible to rewind the tape by reconciling Russia and Ukraine.
Americans and Russians met in Riyadh. In Istanbul, American, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations came together. There are claims that the next meeting would take place in the Vatican. The new Pope is American, so anything is possible…
But how will Moscow and Kyiv make peace?
The US pretends to have withdrawn its support from Zelenskyy and is taking steps toward normalizing relations with Russia.
It is said that Trump’s medium-term goal is to pull Russia away from China.
However, with each meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping, it becomes clearer that Trump’s plans are falling flat. Meanwhile, the comprehensive trade agreement signed between the US and the UK should be noted as Trump’s “Plan B”.
France, Germany, and Poland are encouraging the Ukrainian government to continue the war. After all, one way for the government of these countries to maintain grip on power is to continue the “war against the Russian threat”. These governments are trying to generate economic, social, and political momentum by fueling anti-Russian sentiment.
However, political movements that advocate normalization with Russia are increasingly putting pressure on governments across Europe. In many parts of the old continent, especially in France and Germany, calls to restore relations with Russia are growing louder.
In Romania, such calls were suppressed through an “electoral coup” But how long can they last?
The Russian leadership is focused on turning its gains on the battlefield in Ukraine into concrete results at the negotiating table. It is pushing ahead without making concessions, but there are more than one actor across the table.
Russia, one day, is negotiating with Zelenskyy, the next day with the Americans, and simultaneously with Europeans. Even if it can convince one of them, the other comes and rejects, so the negotiations resemble a blind struggle with no clear end in sight.
The global system question
The state of the world today, the deepening contradictions within the current global order, indicated that any “peace” achieved at the negotiating tables will likely be short-lived.
What we are witnessing is a major confrontation between the West and the rest of the world.
And Ukraine is only one of the many frontlines.
Even if you manage to patch up one part of the global system, it will tear somewhere else tomorrow.
A lasting peace between the West and Russia in Ukraine does not seem possible.
Peace will only be possible with a new world order and a true balance of power it would establish.
But for that new order to come into being, the old one must be entirely fallen apart.
And now we will continue to live through this collapse. Until the new is born…