By Ali Rıza Taşdelen
After the expected defeat in the European Parliament elections, President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections. The first round of general elections will take place on June 30 and a week later comes the second.
Currently, three election fronts have emerged: the Nationalists, the Social Democrats, and Macron’s weakened center-right front.
The Republican party was divided when Chairman Éric Ciotti decided to enter the election with the Rassemblement National (RN). The other faction of the Republicans is led by Gérard Larcher, President of the French Senate, who is aligning with Macron’s Renaissance Party. Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête is on the brink of dissolvement. In the European Parliament elections, Reconquête managed to get five deputies with the leadership of Marine Le Pen’s niece Marion Maréchal. But now Marion Maréchal, along with three other deputies, joined the RN, thus, Zemmour is left with only one deputy.
The Rassemblement National on the road to power
The RN is the most prepared force for the elections. They seem ready to secure an absolute majority in the Assembly. They aim to unite all nationalist parties and groups, whether large and small, under the “National Unity Front”. They have already declared that when they come to power, the government will not only consist of deputies from the RN, but also of the allied parties.
Contrary to what the Atlanticists claim, the central focus of their election program is not “immigrants” but urgent demands of the people like increasing the purchasing power and to repeal Macron’s pension reform, “starting from the fall” as declared.
Another issue they plan to address within the first two to three months is the high cost of living and poverty due to the energy crisis: they promise to reduce value added tax on electricity, gas and fuel from 20% to 5.5%. They will “immediately” start negotiations with the European Commission for exemption from electricity pricing rules, which they claim will “reduce bills by 30%”. They also plan to abolish value added tax on essential goods.
Jordan Bardella, President and Prime Minister candidate of the RN, stated that they will finance these measures by increasing taxes on large corporations, reducing France’s contribution to the EU budget by 2 billion euros from the summer and establishing an independent audit system to control public accounts.
The RN also stated that they are aware of the failed economy they will inherit if they come to power and will therefore create a short and medium-term program to implement their economic plans after thoroughly examining the situation.
Bardella’s statements indicate that they have softened their previously strict immigration policies. The election program mentions “controlling immigration” but does not provide details on the social rights and daily lives of immigrants. It only states that the “Droit du sol” which allows for French citizenship after at least five years of residence in France, will be abolished. The alternative to that is “Droit du sang” which grants French citizenship from birth to any child born in France or abroad if at least one parent is French.
In TV appearances (he is the “popular one” for channels these days), Bardella called on the French people to give his party an absolute majority in the Assembly. He says that he can fulfill his promises only by forming a government alone, so he does not want a minority government.
The Atlanticist “New Popular Front” of the Social Democrats
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the French Communist Party (PCF), the Ecologists (EÉLV), Raphael Glucksmann’s Place Publique (PP) – who is Soros-affiliated and even a “CIA spy” according to some– the Génération·s (G·s), la Gauche républicaine et socialiste (GRS) and the Trotskyist New Anticapitalist Party (NPA) have come together to form the “New Popular Front”. The term “new” is used to draw a parallel with the 1936 “Popular Front” led by Léon Blum and supported by the Communist International against the rising fascism of the time. They are now forming a front against the “rising extreme right and fascism”.
The Front partners will field joint candidates in all constituencies with LFI’ 229 candidates, the Socialists 175, the Ecologists 92, the Communists 50 and 31 candidates for others.
The New Popular Front’s only aim is to prevent the RN from coming to power. It isn’t likely that they get a majority in the Assembly. Apart from Mélenchon’s party, the others are Atlanticists, NATO supporters, anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine.
The Socialists and Ecologists are known for their pro-American stance. The Trotskyists are not worth discussing. Mélenchon, being closer to Russia in the war in Ukraine, opposed to the US and NATO, refusing to label Hamas as a “terrorist organization” and supporting the Palestinian cause in France. He distinguishes himself from the others in the Front.
Raphaël Glucksmann, the Socialist Party-Place Publique candidate who received 14% of the vote in the European Parliament elections, initially stated he would not join the Front under LFI’s terms. Later, he told channel France Inter that he supports the “unity of the left” to ensure the RN “does not win these legislative elections and govern this country”. Glucksmann imposed his conditions for support: unequivocal commitment to supplying arms to Ukraine, supporting Ukraine’s borders and resistance, supporting European integration, and labeling Hamas’s “October 7 attack” as a “terrorist attack”. Mélenchon’s ambition to become prime minister led him to compromise on these points.
Another notable thing is the candidacy of former President François Hollande in this Front. A total pro-Atlantic and anti-Russian politician… He said on TF1 on June 13 that the Popular Front “must confirm its European orientation and France’s presence in NATO”. Former Prime Minister Manuel Valls criticized the New Popular Front, saying, “They compromised with each other for parliamentary seats”.
The New Popular Front’s program includes increasing wages and the purchasing power, reducing energy prices, granting residency and work permits to irregular immigrants, canceling the pension reform and taxing super-profits and the wealthiest.
Macron’s party on the brink of collapse
Macron’s Atlanticist and neoliberal policies had already faced fierce rejection and resistance first from the Yellow Vests and then from retirees.
On top of all this, Macron, siding with the US in the war in Ukraine, imposed sanctions on Russia and plunged his country into an unprecedented energy and economic crisis. Now with a debt ratio of 114% of GDP, France became one of Europe’s most indebted countries. The farmers’ weeks-long protest, also in urban spaces like Paris, shook the country.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is leading the election campaign of Macron’s party. Despite all mentioned and not mentioned negative outcomes in their term, they promise to raise wages, pensions, purchasing power and reduce electricity prices by 15%. But: Who would believe them?
Macron’s presidential majority alliance had 308 deputies in 2017. Today, this figure is 254, and expected to lose half of these seats in the coming elections.
One of Observateur Continental’s recent headlines was: “Macronism is collapsing: Europe shifts to the right under France’s leadership”. Pierre Duval in the same news site writes, “Macron’s bloc, as well as the Republicans, is at risk of extinction”.