By Tahran Oruçoğlu
France-Azerbaijan relations are becoming more tense every day. In particular, France’s active arming of Armenia increases the tension in these relations. France is currently arming Armenia and preparing the country for a new war. Located thousands of kilometers away from the South Caucasus, Paris’ plans require a special analysis.
France’s failures in Africa led Paris to new targets, of which the South Caucasus seemed more attractive both geographically and politically. So, what are France’s future plans in the region?
In an interview to gdh.digital, Naim Asas, President of the Paris-based Strategic Analysis and Geopolitical Research Center, explained France’s plans in the South Caucasus.
Mr. Asas, France continues to actively arm Armenia even after the Second Karabakh War. Of course, countries can establish economic relations with each other. However, currently armament is a major obstacle to peace. How do you interpret this issue?
France’s involvement in arming Armenia can be viewed through multiple lenses. On one side, it reflects the continuation of traditionally strong bilateral relations between France and Armenia, evident in both economic and cultural exchanges. However, the intensification of these armaments comes at a time when the South Caucasus is experiencing heightened tensions, notably due to the Karabakh conflict.
The arming of Armenia is considered a step against Russia. Are the USA and France really arming Armenia for a new front?
From a legal standpoint, any arms sale must comply with the Arms Trade Treaty, which France is a party to. This treaty mandates that states must assess whether the arms sold could be used to facilitate violations of international humanitarian law or human rights. Thus, France is required to justify its arms sales not only in terms of bilateral relations but also in adherence to international standards.
Politically and geopolitically, this move can be seen as a way for France to maintain influence in a strategic region, countering other regional powers like Russia and Türkiye. It could also be interpreted as support for Armenia amidst its ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan, thus influencing the delicate regional balance.
The role of the large Armenian lobby in France cannot be denied. Are Armenian voters very important for the French government?
The significance of the Armenian lobby in France cannot be underestimated. Historically, the Armenian diaspora in France is well-integrated and politically active, influencing policies not only on specifically Armenian issues but also within the broader scope of Franco-Armenian relations. This lobby actively works to raise awareness and influence policymakers on issues such as the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and support for Armenia in its regional conflicts.
The French spy network in Azerbaijan was also exposed. There are French citizens currently in prison. Paris does not comment on this matter. What is the reason?
Relations between France and Azerbaijan are inevitably impacted by French support for Armenia. The arrest of alleged French spies in Azerbaijan might be seen as a sign of growing mistrust and deterioration of relations.
This situation could lead to a reassessment of diplomatic and economic engagements between France and Azerbaijan, potentially affecting bilateral agreements, especially in strategic sectors like energy.
How will the further dynamic development of France-Armenia relations affect the relations between Azerbaijan and France?
Continuing down this path, relations could become further strained, leading to reduced bilateral exchanges and increased regional instability. France may find itself needing to tread carefully to maintain its influence while balancing its relations with both South Caucasus nations.
In conclusion, France’s strategy in the South Caucasus and its involvement in arming Armenia are geopolitical maneuvers that require careful attention to regional balances, international standards, and the long-term implications for international relations and regional stability.