Political Scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan evaluated Iran’s attack on Israel for UWI. The full interview is available below.
Will Iran stop here or not? Will Israel respond in some way?
Let me start with some point that permit us to understand the impact and possible consequences of Iran’s operation.
Firstly, Iran’s operation destroyed the belief that Israel is untouchable. Actually, one can say that has been the case since Hamas’s Al Aqsa Storm operation on 7th October.
Secondly, the alignment inside the camps of Eastern and Western countries has become clearer. While most Western countries backed up Israel, many Eastern countries, including Russia, supported Iran’s position.
Thirdly, the world is heading towards a showdown in which everyone should choose a side. There is no room left for a policy of balance between the East and West.
Fourth, Israel’s response to Iran’s operation would be decisive for the future of the conflict.
Fifth, the US has reached an edge to take a decision, either to accept the defeat or to enter an open conflict with Iran. The reactions and statements from the US till now indicate that they aren’t ready for a direct conflict with Iran, which shows that the US is losing in West Asia.
Sixth, the US-centered unipolar world is coming to an end in West Asia. The US and its Western allies are no more a hegemonic power in West Asia.
Seventh, in this period we can witness some provocations from the US to incite Sunni-Shia division in the region, aiming to split the resistance front against the US and Israel. The peoples in the region should be careful here.
Eighth, the leaders of the Arabic countries are on the verge of a difficult decision. It is impossible to maintain power in the medium term for those siding with Israel. If some Arab leaders keep on siding with Israel, we can see some popular movements against them soon.
Ninth, in general for the region, the reactions of Türkiye and Egypt would be important. A block formed by Türkiye-Egypt-Iran would push back Israel’s aggression and restrict the influence of the US and other Westerners.
And the tenth and last point: Israel, as the outpost of the US in the region, has started its suicide process with the ground operation in Gaza. And now, if Israel responds to Iran again, that would be the beginning of the end for Israel.
Will this ping pong format continue? Does Iran still have the resources left to continue the conflict?
I think there was already a ping pong game between Iran and Israel, but it was a proxy war. This last operation was a direct one, not through some other powers.
Now the situation is more serious because Israel has nuclear power backed by the US and West, and Iran is a big country. The key factor here is what the US would do.
The Netanyahu government wants an open and direct conflict with Iran. Is the Biden government ready and brave enough to open a second front against the East? They already have one in Ukraine. That is the question. If the US doesn’t do that, their hegemony in West Asia will collapse, and if they do, then the response of the Eastern countries, not only that of Iran, would fasten the destruction of the unipolar world order.
Is Iran capable of waging this war?
Iran has been under embargo for a long time, but it has oil, gas, and industry. In the technological field, they are also good. They can handle to confront with Israel and the West in various fronts: Lebanon, Gaza and Palestine, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Iran proved its capabilities. The question is rather whether Israel can wage this war. Israel is losing the war in Gaza.