The four levels of analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (III and final)

The four levels of analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (III and final)

Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein

19 days of Nazi-Zionist bestiality in Palestine, and the world watches impassively as a genocide is committed without the mechanisms of the international system being able to prevent such barbarity. This event has made clear and reiterated the inoperability of the regime as it exists and the need to change it.

The COVID 19 pandemic showed the world the inability of the international system to act together against a common enemy. This was not possible because the capitalist market logic and the greater value of the economy were imposed, seen as the need for profit and profit for companies above the defense of the health and life of human beings. The UN showed total ineffectiveness when facing the pandemic.

Two years later, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine prolonged and deepened the terminal cancer afflicting the world government. Atlanticism as a doctrine and the Atlantic as a space where the most important decisions of the political future of the planet were made, is being surpassed by a network of alliances and organizations that are developed in the Eurasian territory where the United States does not have much to say given his shameful escape from Afghanistan and the failure of the coups he attempted in Kyrgyzstan (2020) and Kazakhstan (2022).

Now it is Russia and China that have built a web of political, economic, financial and security agreements around their great alliance. Expression of this are the BRICS 11, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the International North-South Transport Corridor (INTSC) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) among others.

All of this must be temporally dimensioned in a strategic framework that was clearly delimited by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he told his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin last March during his visit to Moscow that “changes never seen in 100 years were taking place and “We are the ones leading them.” In fact, in recent weeks it has been noted that while the United States makes agreements to sow terror and death, China is concerned about development, peace and international cooperation under the win-win principle.

The inability of the West to successfully confront the conflict in Ukraine in favor of its interests has set off alarm bells to the point that the anguish and tribulations that could have been hidden at first, today come to public light seasoned with extravagant expressions of dozens of ignorant and mediocre leaders, as never seen before.

The economy does not work, the sanctions against Russia have been reversed, affecting a Europe that by its own decision – and following the dictates of Washington – gave up continuing to consume the cheap and safe energy provided by Moscow, which was a fundamental pillar for its industrial development and to sustain their high standard of living.

On the other hand, NATO has shown total inability to confront Russia, its war economy is not up to par. The former Secretary of Defense of the United Kingdom, Ben Wallace, stated last July that the organization could not continue supplying ammunition to the extent of Ukraine’s needs because “the alliance did not adequately prepare for the possibility of a prolonged ground war in Europe after decades of relative peace.”

Likewise, the failure of the sanctions’ policy against Russia has become evident. An investigation carried out by the New York Times in September found that trade restrictions by Washington and its allies have not been entirely effective, since “Russia has not only managed to evade Western penalties that target its army, but is taking the production of projectiles and vehicles to higher levels.”

In another strategic scenario of the world conflict, China continues to increase its successes in its environment despite all the efforts that the United States makes to use Taiwan and those countries that have maritime border disputes with China as an instrument of intervention to maintain a situation of permanent tension that justifies its military and especially naval presence in the region in order to induce the countries of Asia-Pacific and Oceania to increase arms purchases in the United States as a way to overcome their economic crisis through the reactivation of its military industry.

But given the situation created in Ukraine, the US Department of Defense reported that it has already been forced to delay the resupply of its own troops, since failure to do so in time could harm the preparation of its army.

The Pentagon warned the US Congress that it is running out of funds to replace the weapons it has sent to Ukraine, and that it has already been forced to delay resupplying its own troops.

It is within this framework that the war in Palestine occurs. This is the 4th. level of analysis that we must study: the incidence of this conflict on the global stage because in today’s world it is impossible to assume that something happens on the planet that does not have an impact at this level.

As we said in the first article of this series, the decision to carry out the actions of October 7 corresponded solely and exclusively to Hamas and are part of the intention of this organization to bring the world’s gaze to the perpetual genocide being waged against the Palestinian people since 1948. I am not going to stop here to make moral judgments about the ethics of actions. I don’t believe in the two demons’ theory. Those who know me and read me know what I think about it. War is perhaps the most despicable of all actions linked to politics and in this, I adhere to the judgment of our Liberator Simón Bolívar, who taught us that: “War must be waged as civilized peoples do it.” Let everyone draw their own conclusions.

Returning to the topic, I want to reiterate that I have no doubt that the action of October 7 was nothing more than a dress rehearsal to measure the strength, quantity, quality and location of the enemy, but also a move to listen to the probable repercussions that these actions may have in the immediate environment, in the Arab and Muslim universe and throughout the world.

In any case, what has happened so far is a turning point in the long conflict generated in 1948 by the UN, which, created for peace, was inaugurated by establishing a situation of war. On October 7, the relative peace that Israel had established for its settlers on the blood of the Palestinians ended. Nothing will ever be the same. The illegal colonization policy has signed its death certificate. Even UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, usually faint-hearted and fearful of the power of the West, had to recognize it as the cause of the conflict, which led the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations to request his resignation.

At the international level, it is not possible to remain on the sidelines: organizations and countries will have to define themselves. What the United States has called the “international community,” which is made up of Washington and its 53 allies, once again, just as in Ukraine where they sided with the Nazis, in Palestine they have placed themselves in the trenches of Zionism.

This is just the beginning. Today we are waiting to know if Israel will carry out its announced ground offensive in Gaza, which could unleash a war of untold dimensions that would leave the conflict in Ukraine as a weekend stroll given the magnitude and impact of the events that would come. The powers know it. The United States, Europe and their acolytes have already assumed a position of unrestricted support for Israel. What’s more, Biden clearly defined it as a “smart investment” that, in his words, will provide “dividends.” His opinion suggests that the role of Ukraine and Israel is to provide the dead so that the United States can achieve its objectives in exchange for a few crumbs.

Hence, Israel has agreed to delay its invasion of the Gaza Strip so that the United States can bring defense systems to the region. The Pentagon is reportedly rushing to deploy nearly a dozen air defense systems this week, including those for U.S. troops serving in several countries in the region, to protect them from missiles and rockets.

The main concern of the United States now is that if the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza is unleashed, the situation could escalate given that Washington has around 40,000 soldiers in West Asia in bases located in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Türkiye and Oman.

In particular, the situation of the 5th fleet is a factor of superlative unrest. The US Navy Fleet consisting of a Battle Group made up of an aircraft carrier, its escort ships, an Air Wing, an Amphibious Group and various auxiliary ships to complete 20 ships with a total of 16 thousand troops. This fleet, located in Bahrain approximately 280 km from the Iranian coast and less than a minute away from the flight of the hypersonic missiles of Fattah that can travel up to 15 times the speed of sound, having a range of up to 1,400 km. and against which the United States does not have any technology that allows it to intercept or destroy them, it would be easy prey for the Iranian response to the ground aggression against Gaza.

Similarly, the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb would be covered by Iranian missiles and, in the latter case, also by those from Yemen, which would close the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea to the supertankers that carry 40% of the oil that is consumed on the planet. The debacle of the world economy would be immediate, since crude oil prices would rise to prices that were inaccessible to the vast majority of the countries in the world.

Hence, Secretary of State Anthony Binken traveled to Israel twice, almost simultaneously with the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and President Joe Biden himself, all in less than a week. The urgency of the event is accentuated by the realization that the President of the United States was forced to make a long journey to spend only 6 hours in Tel Aviv.

In the midst of this unbridled diplomatic activity of the United States trying to put out fires with gasoline, China held the third forum of the New Silk Road with the attendance of delegations from more than 140 countries, several of them chaired by heads of state and/or government that debated on the basis that “China will do better if the rest of the world does well, and the rest of the world will do better as long as China does well” as stated by President Xi Jinping during the opening speech of the event.

On the conflict in West Asia, Beijing has long-established a position: “China firmly supports the establishment of an independent State of Palestine, enjoying full sovereignty on the basis of the 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. “China supports Palestine to become a full member of the United Nations.”

In turn, Russia has expressed serious concern about the escalation of violence between Palestinians and Israelis. Their position, which they define as “main and coherent,” is that this conflict “which has already lasted 75 years, has no solution by force and can only be resolved by political-diplomatic means through the establishment of a full-format negotiation process on the known basis of international law that stipulates the creation of the independent Palestinian State on the borders of the year 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, which lives in peace and security with Israel,”

In this context, as Brazilian international analyst Pepe Escobar has said: “After its surprising attack […] an intelligent Hamas has already gained more negotiating influence than the Palestinian authority for decades. Significantly, while the peace talks are supported by China, Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Tel Aviv refuses. Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza, but if that happens, a broader regional war is almost inevitable.”

Likewise, it should be considered that as of January 1, three of the most important Muslim countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran will begin to form the BRICS 11 group, in the same way as the United Arab Emirates, creating a very positive correlation of forces in support of the struggle of the Palestinian people.

The situation created has led to unforeseeable consequences just a few weeks ago. In this sense, although the talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish relations were quite advanced, they seem to have “frozen” after the actions of October 7. A Saudi diplomatic official reported that his country ” has decided to suspend the debate on possible normalization [with Israel] and has informed US officials.” That is to say, despite Washington’s pressure on Riyadh to condemn the Hamas attack, the Wahhabi monarchy refused to do so.

In another area, on October 13, the Qatari government announced that it was willing to cut off natural gas exports to the rest of the world in support of Palestine. The Emir Sheikh Tamim ibn Hamad Al Thani, head of state of Qatar, was forceful and direct when he said that: “If the bombing of Gaza does not stop, we will cut off the gas supply to the world,” adding greater uncertainty to the planet’s economic future. It is worth saying that Qatar is the sixth most important producer in the world, while it has the third-largest gas reserves.

In this context, the tour of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian through the region cannot be ignored in the analysis. At the end of it, he reported that there was the possibility that other fronts would be opened against Israel in the midst of its current conflict with Palestine. In any case, the Persian minister made it clear that it would be the Resistance that would make the final decision on what it called “zero hour” for any action in the event of continuation of Israel’s aggression against Gaza.

Amir warned that if there is “delay” on the part of the international community, the United Nations and the activists who support the Zionist regime’s warmongering, “the response will be given at the opportune and appropriate time for the Resistance. Being decisive to “change the current map of the occupied territories”.

This idea was ratified by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who warned on October 17 that if [Israel’s] crimes continue, “Muslims and resistance forces will lose patience, and no one will be able to stop them.”

In this context, on October 19, a Hezbollah spokesperson stated that his organization will be at the center of the ongoing battle. In addition to the 12 operations carried out against Israeli border positions with occupied Palestine since the launch of the Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah participates in the joint operations room of Palestinian resistance factions that are working “together “continuously and intensely and coordinate with each other” after agreeing on the steps to follow to confront the Zionist enemy on the two Palestinian and Lebanese fronts for which they are exchanging information. Likewise, they announced that all actions on the ground are decided in this operations room taking into account the facts and political approaches.

It remains to be seen if Israel finally launches its ground offensive on Gaza, and what the response of the Axis of Resistance and the Muslim world will be in support of the Palestinian people. This will indicate the course of this conflict and the future of the planet, given the total ineffectiveness of the UN, which has been marginalized from its responsibility to make decisions that lead to preventing and preventing this genocide from continuing to occur.

Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
A Venezuelan international relations expert, Gelfenstein was previously Director of the International Relations of the Presidency of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, his country’s ambassador to Nicaragua and an advisor for international politics for TELESUR. He has written numerous books, among them “China in the XXI Century – the awakening of a giant”, published in several Latin American countries. You can follow him on Twitter: @sergioro0701

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May 2024