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01/05/2023

Russia and the West: Towards a Long War

Russia and the West: Towards a Long War

Russia entered the New Year with rain, not snow.

Unlike previous years, the Kremlin and its surroundings were calm. The lights of the houses were on.

At five minutes to 12, President Putin appeared on Russian television. Lined up behind him were men and women in uniform.

Putin addressed his citizens from the Southern Military District Command, located near the Ukrainian border. His speech, broadcast on tape, was long and full of moral values.

Putin’s speech preparing for a long war

As I observed from Moscow, the Kremlin followed a line of trying to keep Russian citizens psychologically distant from the ongoing war against the West in Ukraine.

But as the war dragged on and Western sanctions became more severe, the Kremlin changed its attitude.

First, television broadcasts about the war increased.

Then posters of “Heroes of the Fatherland” appeared in cities, especially on public transportation.

Putin’s New Year speech signaled that the transition phase is coming to an end and that Russia is almost entirely preparing for a long war.

“The defense of the homeland is our sacred duty to our ancestors and descendants. We have the moral justification based on history,” Putin began his speech.

After expressing his gratitude to the soldiers, Putin made the following remarks, which remind that different sectors of society are part of the ongoing war and address the productive classes:

“Millions of people are with you in their hearts and souls, and will be raising a toast to you at their New Year’s table. Many thanks to everyone who provides ancillary support for military operations: drivers and railway workers who deliver supplies to the front, doctors, paramedics, and nurses who are fighting for soldiers’ lives and nursing wounded civilians. I thank the workers and engineers at our military and other plants who are working today with great dedication, builders who are erecting civilian facilities and defensive fortifications, and helping to restore the destroyed cities and villages in Donbas and Novorossiya.”

And he stated that the struggle against the West, which has declared a “war of sanctions” against Russia, continues.

During the course of Putin’s speech, the Russian and Ukrainian armies continued their mutual offensive and some Russian cities were targeted.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that US-made HIMARS missiles killed 63 Russian soldiers in a building in Donetsk on New Year’s Eve. According to media reports, more than 100 Russian soldiers were wounded in the same attack.

In the meantime, there are rumors of a new military mobilization in Russia.

It is an undeniable fact that the longer the war goes on, the tougher it gets.

The US and its European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, despite their cracked voices and their deteriorating economy.

As Russian officials have underlined in their statements, the US insists on its strategy of completely severing ties between Europe and Russia through Ukraine.

It is obvious that Washington is aiming for a regime change in Russia, which it plans to weaken in this way, just like it happened in 1991.

But the Russians are resisting militarily, economically and politically.

As the Russians resist, the positions of the Asian countries, especially China, and the states that oppose the unipolar world domination of the US, on the side of Russia, are becoming more and more clear.

How long will the war endure?

The world is going through a decisive change.

The US insists on preserving the unipolar order it has established. But we are in a multipolar world, as Western strategists and intellectuals also acknowledge.

So how far will the ongoing war go?

Possible scenarios are;

  1. The Kremlin takes a step back: This will lead to a return to the 90s in Russia, that is, economic, political, military and social collapse. If this scenario occurs, it is possible for Russia to break up again. In that case, the forces opposing the US imposition of a unipolar world in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East will suffer a major blow. Under Western rule, it will pave the way for new occupations, coups and destructions in our region. In this assumption, the strategy to be pursued by China and India gains importance.
  2. Peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: It is clear that such an agreement would only be temporary in order to buy time to build up forces. It is not possible for it to last long.
  3. Dissolution in the West: If this scenario occurs, it is possible to see some changes in the government and even in the system in Europe, triggered by socio-economic rebellions. Having lost Eurasia, the US will be left with two options;
  • Limited use of nuclear weapons and thereby preventing the integration of Eurasia,
  • Admitting defeat and retreating to its own continent.

In any case, the war between the West and the East over Ukraine is likely to drag on.

However, the world is no longer the old world, as the developments show once again.

And nothing will ever be the same.

Onur Sinan Güzaltan
Onur Sinan Güzaltan was born in Istanbul in 1985. He had his Bachelors's degree in Law, from the Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne Universty /Paris XII and a Master's degree in International and European Law. He got his certificate of diploma equivalence at Galatasaray University. Later, he got a Master's degree in International Trade Law, at the Institut de Droit des Affaires Internationales, founded jointly by the Sorbonne Universty and the Cairo Universty. In this process, he had served as the Cairo representative for the Aydinlik Newspaper. He has several articles and television streams within the international press, in such as People's Daily, Al Yaum, Al Ahram, Russia Today FranceAl Youm Al Sabea. In addition to being the author of the Tanrı Bizi İster Mi?, a work that studies the 2011-2013 political period in Egypt, he had also contributed to the multi-author study titled Ortadoğu Çıkmazında Türkiye, with an article that focused on the Turkish-Egyptian relations. While currently working as a lawyer, he also writes a weekly column for Aydinlik Newspaper on the subject of international politics and geopolitics.

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