The Stratfor Institute’s forecast, Pt. 2: Date and sides of the Third World War

The signs of the Third World War appear

The decade after radical decisions made in the United States on immigration and technology, the 2030’s will create a golden era for the United States, so much so that the United States (especially because of the dissolution of Russia and the division of China into regional governments) will have the power to do almost anything they want in the world.

In these years, the most important issue in the world will be the management of the Pacific Ocean basin. Because of Japan’s naval forces and space-based combat systems, its presence in the Pacific Ocean will be alarmingly increased. Because Japan still imports its oil from the Middle East, it will use its naval forces to keep control of the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, which are transit routes. Japan will have to share the Pacific Ocean with the US 7^th fleet. It will also have to share space with the US Space Command.

The Japanese will also try to pull the US Navy out of the Western Pacific with hypersonic ship and submarine rockets. However, from the point of view of the United States, Japan’s most disturbing activity will be its military and commercial work in space. With all these developments, China will start working with the United States because of its fear of Japan in the 2040’s.

The state of Turkey in the 2040’s

Because of the gradual thawing of Russia, Turkey will slowly extend towards the Caucasus. This can take the form of direct military occupation and political alliances. Turkey’s advance in the Caucasus will extend into Russia and into Ukraine, as well as the Turkic republics in Central Asia. The Black Sea will become a Turkish lake, and there will be a very active commercial relationship with Turkey from the ports of Odessa and Crimea. A very significant amount of Turkish investment will occur in this region.

Turkey, meanwhile, will expand into Syria and Iraq due to problems in the South. It won’t want to see the United States re-enter this region like it did in the 2000’s. The Balkan countries will also have their share of land from the disintegration of Russia. The traditional Russian-leaning countries in the Balkans (Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia) will be in great turmoil. Turkey will also try to guarantee the Turkish presence in the Balkans based on the Muslim countries in this region. Thus, Turkey’s goal of becoming a major regional power will be completed in the 2040’s. In the meantime, taking advantage of internal turmoil in Egypt, Turkey invades and controls the Suez Canal. This will prove that it is a great power from the Balkans to Saudi Arabia, from the Caucasus to the Persian Gulf.

Japan will seek an alliance with Turkey because the Turks control oil centers in the Middle East. India, meanwhile, will be alarmed by the fact that the Turks are docking in the Indian Ocean due to the Muslim population in it. Turkey uses Islamist ideology as much as its economy in its expansion efforts. Because of this, India will form alliances with the United States. While all this is happening, the forces of Turkey and Japan will scare all countries, including the United States, as they will become quite significant at the two most important ends of the world.

Poland and the 2040’s

Poland has been historically occupied and used repeatedly by either Russia or Germany. Because of this, Poland, which knows the opportunity to weaken Germany and Russia, will want to expand both inside Russia and into the south of the Balkans.By the time it comes to this process, it has already made Poland a US ally. Poland will be highly developed both financially and in terms of technology. Because Turkey’s plans include both Russia and in the Balkans, they will conflict with Poland’s development plans.

By 2045, Poland had occupied both Slovenia and Croatia, adding it to the borders of Greater Poland and owning ports in the Adriatic. Because of these developments, Turkey will realize that it is facing both Poland and the United States, which is its supporter. America will prepare both Poland and India against the Turks. The United States will use everything it can to destroy or prevent Turkey and Japan from directly fighting them.

In order to break the resistance of the parties and destroy their resources in such regional wars, the United States will follow a strategy such as spreading the struggle for a long time and ensuring that regional powers fight with each other. In order to do this, it will raise issues such as the right to self-determination in Turkey and Japan, or human rights and democratization, and try to weaken these two countries. In addition, the United States will support nationalist movements in China, Korea and India, as well as in Russia and Ukraine, which are under the influence of Turkey, and will ensure that both Turkey and Japan deal with these problems and get tired.

The United States will organize Serbian insurgents in the Balkans against Turkey and extend this guerrilla war to Macedonia. As soon as the Balkans are made a battlefield, Turkey will be imprisoned in the region. The main goal of the Turks will be not to lose control of the Straits. In the meantime, the United States will also support Arab nationalism in the Arab countries under Turkish influence in the south and try to ensure the control of the Turks.

The state of space and space wars: the 2040’s

The United States and Japan will already have developed their bases in space during the 2030’s under the image of both military and commercial use. They will do this especially in relation to energy production under the name of space commercialization. During this period, the United States aims to develop combat stations in space and be able to hit any point of the world from space, as well as to hit any desired target with hypersonic rockets on earth by controlling it from space. One of these space stations will be located in the south of Turkey and one in the south of Japan. Since such systems are already being developed even today, for example, in 2047, such a system will be thoroughly tested and ready for use.

It seems that by 2045, Japan’s naval power will be able to grasp both the Western Pacific and the South China Sea and reach the Indian Ocean. The Turks, on the other hand, will start from the Balkans and the Caucasus and affect Central Asia and even the Muslim regions of western China. Japan and Turkey are forming an alliance for the future. US intelligence is aware of communications between Tokyo and Istanbul on this issue. (Istanbul has been the capital in Turkey). The biggest fear of the United States is a Pan-Eurasian alliance.

US moves against Eurasian Alliance

Alarmed by all these activities, the United States will organize a boycott of both Japanese and Turkish goods worldwide. It would also limit the transfer of technology to the two countries. There will be a huge increase in US military aid to China, Poland and India. The aim here is to create as many problems as possible to prevent Turkey and Japan from coming together and forming an alliance against them. All of these counter-activities of the United States will be perceived in Turkey and Japan as aimed at destroying these countries. Turkey’s Islamic rhetoric will also find a voice in Southeast Asia, and Japan will be allowed to use Indonesian ports. In this way, the presence of US naval forces in both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean will also be compromised.

All this will be perceived as a new Cold War in the United States, because no one will believe in the possibility of a real war until this moment.

Philosophy of the New World War

In this new war, no one is aiming to wipe the other side from the Earth. It will only do so much damage to the other side that the enemy will accept that both sides live in peace within their sphere of influence. Because of this, the idea that whoever makes the first hit will be the winner of the battle is also valid here.

As this new battle will be conducted with space stations, Japan is also monitoring the US plans and work on space warfare from the 2030’s. Japan will have secretly built a space base on the dark side of the moon. Since space is already commercialized and all countries are doing something there, these Japanese studies have not attracted attention. Japan’s goal in this new war is to be able to hit the United States without alarming it, before it takes precautions.

Just as before the war, Turkey and Japan will not give any impression of mobility. In order to distract the US attention, Turkey will cause some friction with Polish military forces in the Balkans and on the territory of Croatia and Bosnia. After this local conflict, Poland will bomb a Turkish air base in the Balkans, causing a regional conflict. At this point, the United States will step in and ensure peace, but in the meantime, its attention will be focused on events in the Balkans. For control of the Balkans, it will also devote the Space Station, located directly above Uganda, to control the Balkans. In this way, the situation that Japan wanted was created.

Third World War: 24 November 2050; 17:00

The war will break out on the most important family holiday in the United States: Thanksgiving, when all soldiers and civilians are busy with the feast. At this time, the Japanese will launch dozens of rockets simultaneously from space stations on the dark side of the moon at US Space Stations. These Rockets, believed to be ”meteors”, will destroy all 3 space stations deployed in 3 different locations in space to spy on the world. Hundreds of US troops will also be destroyed in this attack. At the same time, Japanese hypersonic rockets will hit targets in the United States one after the other. Turkey, on the other hand, will be bombing targets in the Polish bloc and India in coordination with Japan. The goal is to leave the United States and its allies helpless. By 19 O’clock, all the US space stations, most of its hypersonic rockets and planes will be destroyed before they take off. In addition, all ships of the American Navy will be sunk. America’s European allies and India will also lose their power in this case.

The US counter offensive

The philosophy, which is the basis for this attack by Turkey and Japan, will be “now the United States understands that it is not the only superpower in the world and agrees to share the world with us.”

But in return, the United States will perceive these attacks as an act against its existence. The possibility that Japan and Turkey could create a united Eurasia is the alternative that the United States fears most. Therefore, it will reject the peace agreement proposed by the Japanese-Turkish alliance and the proposal to “share the world” and counterattack. First, it will try to destroy Japan’s space stations.

Just 72 hours after the allied attack, the United States will have destroyed all their surveillance mechanisms. Immediately after that, US hypersonic aircraft will carry out an all-out attack on Japanese and Turkish military facilities. The Americans will also destroy all of Japan’s bases on the lunar surface. On that way, the allies will lose both their ability to observe and their means of attack.

In the meantime, Japan will occupy parts of China and some territories in Asia. Turkey will also direct all its power towards the Balkans and the territories held by Poland. In a short time, Southeast Europe will fall into the hands of Turkey, as far as the borders with Poland and Ukraine. In February 2051, the United States will launch a multi-pronged attack on Turkish forces in the Balkans. And in this attack, Turkey will lose a lot of people and will see that it is no longer likely to win the war. Meanwhile, the Arab population in Egypt and North Africa will rise up against the Turks. Germany will attack Poland from the West and come to Turkey’s aid. In turn, the Germans will take Poland, while the Turks will have only the Balkans. To implement this, the Germans would have encircled the Poles from the west and attacked in the spring of 2051.

The end of the war: the summer months of 2052

By mid-summer 2052, the course of the war seems to be in the middle, while US space bases and intelligence recover and deal deadly blows to Turkish, German and Japanese forces. The United States aims to ensure that these countries are not completely eliminated, but that there is a balance to other growing powers in their region.

Therefore, in the post-war peace talks, Turkey and Japan are not completely destroyed. Turkey will withdraw to the south of the Balkans and give China all the areas it controls in Central Asia. The Japanese will withdraw all their forces from Chinese territory. Looking at the human losses of this war, it will be seen that only 50 thousand people died. Most of these deaths will be due to the activities of Turkish and German forces in Eastern Europe and the Japanese fighting in China.

The 2060’s: America’s golden age

The biggest result of the peace talks at the end of the war will be that the United States has a monopoly on the militarization of space. No other force in the world will be allowed to conduct military work in space. Turkey will remain the leader of the Islamic world, but will have a troubled future due to the minorities living on its territory.

Germany would shrink and weaken while Poland was restored to imperial territory in the size of the seventeenth century. The defeat of Germany and France by Poland will lead to a slow decline in the importance of Western Europe and an increase in the importance of Eastern Europe.

Turkey will enter into close relations with the United States due to the emerging power of Poland. The economic development of the United States in the 2040’s will not decrease due to this war, but on the contrary, it will increase. Because historically, the United States is a country that has come out of all major wars profitably.

This will also be the case this time, and it will experience economic growth and social transformation by the 2070’s. Fifteen years after World War III in 2050, as previous world wars have proven, the economic and technological “Golden Age” of the United States will begin. This will occur both through the militarization of space and through space-centered energy projects. Efforts to transport solar energy in space to Earth will gain momentum and infinite energy sources will be found.

At the end of the book, George Friedman cannot pass on the following positive propositions about the future power of the United States: “Considering that Arpanet, the ancestor of the Internet, was developed for the US military, it was impossible to reason with its use in 30 years. But it has finally become part of our lives. Space-centric electricity generation will be a similar process. In this way, the United States will become the world’s largest energy producer and become the world’s energy provider, including Japan and China. In this way, the US space energy monopoly will have much more importance on oil than Saudi Arabia’s current importance.”

2080’s and the end of the century

After the war, Mexico, the neighbor to the south of the United States, will become extraordinarily important for the United States. Historical events will play a role in this. Until 1848, many of the southern states of the United States were Mexican territory and were occupied by the United States and joined the United States. But the Mexican-born population here did not move to Mexico. They became US citizens and lived as Mexican-Americans for 200 years.

Millions of workers migrating from Mexico will also play an important role in the economic development of the United States in the 2040’s. The difference between Mexicans and other migrant workers in the United States is that the United States is de facto an extension of Mexican territory. For this reason, after the 2080’s, friction with the United States will begin, both due to population movements and due to the development of the Mexican economy. In all southern states of the United States, there will be a movement towards connecting to Mexico, and the 21^st century will end in such turmoil.