By Mohamed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt
There is no doubt that Turkish-Syrian reconciliation is “inevitably coming.” Rather, we are witnessing a frantic race by the Turkish opposition to snatch the reconciliation card from the government’s hands and outperform Erdogan in the matter, head start to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It is surprising that Erdogan is rushing reconciliation, and Assad wants it very much, but despite this, agreeing on the details of the road map to reach reconciliation is what slows down the pace.
Recently, before the Turkish elections, Erdogan bet on Assad’s need to break his isolation and respond and meet with him. On the other hand, Al-Assad bet on time and the victory of the Turkish opposition because it might reach an agreement with him faster and deport more Syrians than the Justice and Development Party government. The bet of both Erdogan and Al-Assad failed, but the West did not stop in its bet on containing Türkiye and threatening its stability, by using the Kurdish card and the Syrian refugee card.
At the same time, it is no longer a secret that the West is betting on the post-Erdogan era, and the success of the alliance of Turkish opposition parties in reaching power. At that time, it is possible for the Americans and Europeans to use this change in the Turkish government for a new beginning in their relations with Ankara, and to distance it from the East, whether towards Russia and China, or adopt a positive policy towards Palestinians, Arabs and the Global South. I believe that the two men have reached the inevitability of reconciliation, and the necessity of hastening to seize the opportunity, just in case for speed transformations in the region and the international arena. So, you see what kind of fears are hindering the reconciliation train from reaching its final station.
Reconciliation is annoying and risks blowing up the situation
The Turkish-Syrian rapprochement attempts overshadowed the Middle East amid a dramatic scene last week, as incitement actions against Syrian refugees escalated in the city of Kayseri. This was followed by incitement actions against the Turks in northern Syria, but the atmosphere calmed down in a short time, and this is what disturbs the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK): That the settlement of the situation is still continuing.
Deputy Chairman of the Turkish “Patriotic” Party, Hakan Topkurulu, confirmed to the “Novosti” agency: International intelligence is planning provocations aimed at preventing a possible meeting between Erdogan and Assad, and normalization between Ankara and Damascus.
For her part, the writer Fadima Ozkan, in an article in the Turkish newspaper “Star”, discussed the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement, and how this affects the PKK. She explained that the continued pursuit of dialogue between Ankara and Damascus disturbs the forces that benefit from the chaos in the region, especially the PKK.
Ozkan reveals that the PKK, which expanded due to continuous American support since 2012, was unable to tighten control over the areas it occupied, so it began to hope to find legitimacy for its existence through reconciliation with the Damascus administration, but that did not happen. Therefore, the PKK is now trying to prevent Ankara and Damascus from creating a suitable ground for reaching a rational dialogue between them.
Stations on the Ankara-Damascus Road
Here it is necessary to stop quickly at important stations on the road between Ankara and Damascus. They are as follows:
Syrian-Turkish relations deteriorated with the outbreak of war in Syria.
– After a long period of severing relations between the two parties, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his Syrian counterpart twice, the first in October 2021, and the second in May 2023, and the path towards settling relations began, but it was a very slow process.
At the beginning of this year, there was talk about America’s withdrawal from Iraq. This coincided with the Russian special representative in Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, addressing the Syrian Democratic Forces, saying: “Sooner or later America will withdraw from Syria, so you must engage in dialogue with Damascus.”
These repercussions disturbed the PKK, which was said to be holding discussions with Damascus. Press reports also stated that the Syrian Democratic Forces offered the Syrian regime to share oil money, Syrian oil in the areas it occupied, to persuade it to make a settlement and cooperate in restoring the areas controlled by the opposition.
However, informed sources reported that no agreement was reached, and on April 8, the Syrian Democratic Forces were forced to announce that the discussions with Damascus had not succeeded.
In response to the failure of its talks with Damascus, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced on May 30, it had decided to hold local elections in the areas it controls, based on what it called the constitution that it approved in December 2023, noting that its constitution ignores the Syrian map.
– At a time when America was preoccupied with “Israel” and Ukraine, but Türkiye was in a good position, and objections to those elections began and the tribes of the region revolted against holding them. So, the elections were postponed to June 11, but Türkiye intervened again, while America prevented them from being held, declaring that conditions are unfavorable to hold elections. This time, the elections were postponed indefinitely.
– After these developments, the Syrian President stated: his readiness to hold a meeting with the Turkish side, and the possibility of Assad meeting with Erdogan has become disturbing to many Western powers, the PKK and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Erdogan wants to restore relations with Syria “as in the past”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “his country wants to restore relations with Syria to the point they were in the past,” reiterating that he will invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to visit Türkiye at any time.
Erdogan added: “We have now reached a point in Syria that the moment Syrian President Bashar al-Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Türkiye, we do not stand against him. We will respond appropriately, because we were not enemies of Syria yesterday, we were meeting with Assad as a family. We extend this invitation and I hope that we will return Turkish-Syrian relations to the same point they were in the past.”
Indicating his preference for a “direct meeting with Assad” in Ankara, in line with the desire of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Erdogan said in statements for journalists they recently accompanied him on his return trip from Berlin, where he attended the match between the Turkish national team and its Dutch counterpart in the quarter-finals of the European Nations Championship: “Our invitation to Assad may occur at any time. Mr. Putin has an approach to holding a meeting in Türkiye, and the Iraqi Prime Minister has his own point of view on this matter.” The issue is, we talk about mediation everywhere, but why don’t we talk to those on our borders, to our neighbors?”
Erdogan said in statements he made last Friday on his way back from Kazakhstan, where he participated in the Shanghai Development Organization summit and met Putin on its sidelines: “We may invite Russian President Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad to a joint meeting. “If President Putin visits Türkiye, a new, different phase could begin.”
He added: “All the years that have passed since the war in Syria have clearly shown everyone the necessity of establishing a permanent solution mechanism. We have always extended the hand of friendship to our neighbor Syria, and we will continue to do so with honor and honesty. We stand by Syria, which is working together on the basis of a new, just and comprehensive social contract. We have never and will never allow the establishment of a terrorist entity in Syria in our region.” He believed that “the winds of peace that will blow over Syria, and the climate of peace that will prevail throughout Syria, are also necessary for the return of millions of Syrians to their country.”
Erdogan had previously announced, in recent statements in Istanbul, his readiness to meet Assad “and restore relations between Türkiye and Syria to what they were before,” pointing out that he had met Assad in the past, and there were meetings even at the family level, and he had no problem meeting him again.
Why did Erdogan change his position?
What drives Erdogan to change his policy towards Assad is to consolidate the position of his ruling party, strengthen his position in the internal arena, and grab the important “Syrian refugees” card, which the Turkish opposition bet on, to deprive Erdogan and his party of retaining power in the recent Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections last year. Although he was able to win, the opposition achieved some success and toppled some of the leaders of the Justice and Development Party using the Syrian card. It has become clear to Erdogan that he needs to achieve tangible successes in the Syrian file and reach a formula to return millions of refugees who have become a burden, in light of pressure from the opposition and the Turkish street to close this file.
Erdogan hopes that he will be able to resolve two important issues in the current period with Assad’s help – the issue of the presence of about four million Syrian refugees in Türkiye, as well as the supposed existential threat due to Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and fears of local elections in the areas of the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of northeastern Syria in Next August, Türkiye considers it a step towards establishing a Kurdish state on its borders and wants the support of Moscow and Damascus to prevent it from taking place.
In addition to the economic pressures that push Türkiye to agree with the Damascus government to restart the crossings and open trade routes across the border to Syria and from there to the countries of the region.
The recent urgency in Erdogan’s desire to meet Bashar al-Assad can be attributed to many political and regional factors related to Turkish domestic and foreign policy, as Umit Nazmi Hazir, a Turkish political analyst based in Moscow, points out.
He says that the first reason is “the increasing problem of immigration in Türkiye,” and the accompanying internal pressures that stress the necessity of addressing this issue.
The Turkish analyst adds, “The immigration issue played a role in the loss of votes for Erdogan’s party in the recent local elections.” Therefore, the Turkish president now needs to find a permanent solution to this problem, and also to face the pressures he is exposed to in Turkish domestic politics.
Also, “successful diplomatic progress with Syria can be presented as a major achievement in domestic politics.”
On the other hand, Erdogan’s push towards Assad is linked to “the threat posed by the terrorist People’s Protection Units,” and Hazir believes that “changes in US policy towards Syria and the broader Middle East could also affect Türkiye’s strategy.”
If the United States reduces its involvement in the region, Türkiye may “feel the need to take more initiative in shaping regional outcomes.”
Neither Iraq nor Türkiye…The eye is on the location and time of the summit
Talk about Turkish reconciliation has not stopped over the past few years, but it has gained great momentum in recent days, especially since the Turkish President’s offers did not stop at restoring his country’s relations with Syria. Rather, he confirmed several times inviting Assad to visit Türkiye “at any time.” And in all cases, A Turkish official is keen to clarify that the date of the meeting that will bring the two presidents together is “unspecified.” So, where and when will the meeting be after 13 years of estrangement? Answering the last question will contribute to shaping the future of partnerships and alliances in the region.
It seems, up to the present moment, that Russia, along with Iraq, are the most prominent players playing the role of mediation between Türkiye and Syria and holding a meeting between Erdogan and Assad.
Khurshid Deli, a researcher in Turkish affairs, believes that Baghdad is not the appropriate place for this meeting, despite its important role, especially since Erdogan does not want to give Arab and Iranian depth to such a step. He added that, on the other hand, Baghdad does not seem to have any political influence on Damascus, unlike Moscow, which is linked to both sides, Syrian and Turkish, with an influential network of relationships, interests and accounts.
Informed Arab sources believe that the Iranian-Saudi reconciliation experience is being repeated. After the efforts of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman, the Saudi and Iranian sides decided to search for a guarantor of the agreement and chose China. They point out that Damascus prefers Russia and Iran.
Informed Arab sources confirm that the place of the reconciliation meeting will be at the table of Russian President Vladimir Putin, given that Russia is the one leading the mediation between them.
They also believe that Putin wants this meeting to achieve a turning point in Russian and regional policy towards the Syrian crisis, and to achieve a major leap in his Eurasian policies.
They indicated that the date of the meeting is linked to achieving understandings on a road map between the Turkish and Syrian sides, and that we are witnessing an unprecedented Turkish push, while the Syrian side is waiting and checking its calculations.
These analyzes came after a Turkish newspaper close to the ruling party revealed that the Turkish-Syrian talks that precede the meeting between Erdogan and Assad will take place at the level of the foreign ministers of the two countries after a meeting of other Turkish and Syrian officials.
At the same time, Syrian sources revealed that an upcoming Syrian-Turkish meeting is being prepared, and that the negotiation process with Türkiye will be long, but will lead to political and field understandings.
They indicated that the Turkish side had asked Moscow and Baghdad to sit at a bilateral dialogue table with the Syrian side, without the presence of any third party, and away from the media, to discuss all the details that are supposed to restore relations between the two countries to their previous state.
Assad and Erdogan meet in the presence of Putin
The Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Syrian settlement affairs, Alexander Lavrentiev, confirmed last Sunday, to Al Arabiya channel the possibility of holding a meeting between Assad and Erdogan, in the presence of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, after completing the road map for the normalization of Syrian-Turkish relations. He pointed out that the normalization process between Syria and Türkiye has not slowed down, but on the contrary, it is “evolving with time.”
According to the Russian official, “Initially, a meeting was held at the expert level, followed by a tripartite meeting at the level of defense ministers, then foreign ministers, who directed their deputies to implement the road map.” He added, “Work is underway seriously and intensively” to activate Roadmap”.
Lavrentiev said, “When the two parties complete this stage, the presidents will be informed of its results in order to organize a meeting between Erdogan and Assad, in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
Lavrentiev added, “Undoubtedly, there are some difficulties, but we do not give up.” We will continue “Working to bring positions closer together through Russian mediation.”
The spokesman pointed out, “If it were not for the American military presence in Syria, the situation would have been much better.” He concluded That “American forces are plundering Syria’s wealth to cover the expenses of their military presence there.”
Damascus’ conditions: Return to the situation before 2011 and other conditions
Damascus stressed that any initiative to normalize relations with Ankara must be built on foundations, foremost of which is the return of the situation that prevailed before 2011, and the fight against terrorist groups that threaten the security of Syria and Türkiye.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: “At a time when positions and statements are continuing regarding the relationship between Syria and Türkiye, Syria would like to recall that it has always been keen on making a clear distinction between peoples and the practices of governments that have harmed Syria.”
It stressed that “Syria was and continues to be based on the firm conviction that the interests of countries are built on the sound relationship between them and not on conflict or hostility, and based on that, Syria was keen to deal positively with the various initiatives that were put forward to improve relations between them and those countries, and within the same framework.” Syria has dealt with initiatives to correct the Syrian-Turkish relationship.”
It added: “Syria believes that the result of these initiatives is not a media goal, but rather a purposeful path based on existing facts and built on specific principles that govern the relationship between the two countries, the basis of which is respect for sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and confronting everything that threatens their security and their stability. It serves the common interest of the two countries and the two peoples.”
It continued: “Syria emphasizes that any initiative in this regard must be built on clear foundations to ensure reaching the desired results, which is the return of relations between the two countries to their normal state, and at the forefront of those foundations is the withdrawal of forces present illegally from Syrian territory, and the fight against terrorist groups that do not ” threatens the security of not only Syria, but also the security of Türkiye.”
Syria also expressed its “thanks and appreciation to the brotherly and friendly countries that are making sincere efforts to correct the Syrian-Turkish relationship.” It stressed that “the return of the normal relationship between the two countries is based on the return of the situation that prevailed before 2011, which is the basis for the security, safety and stability of the two countries.”
Damascus requests guarantees from Russia and Iran
The former Syrian ambassador to Ankara, Nidal Qabalan, confirmed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will not meet his Turkish counterpart unless the basic Syrian conditions are agreed upon, the most important of which is Türkiye’s exit from Syrian territory.
Qabalan said in statements to “Sputnik” that “Al-Assad will not meet Erdogan unless the basic Syrian conditions and clauses are agreed upon. What is most important for Syria is what happens on the ground, and a decision by the Turkish government, especially Erdogan, to withdraw from the lands it occupies in the north and northwest of Syria. It is a Syrian condition that cannot be negotiated with.”
He added: “We cannot talk about serious breakthroughs on the path to reconciliation between Damascus and Ankara, and perhaps what was discussed on the sidelines of the recent Astana meeting, and the Russian talk about a road map for reconciliation between Syria and Türkiye can be adopted as a largely theoretical basis, but unless it is accompanied by practical steps and guarantees from the Russian and Iranian side for pledges and the Turkish commitments regarding the Syrian claims that have become known, most notably the withdrawal from the Syrian lands occupied by Turkish forces, cannot speak of a serious breakthrough on the path to reconciliation.
Files stuck between Ankara and Damascus
For its part, Ankara revealed some obstacles to reconciliation with Syria, Ambassador Akif Cagatay, the Turkish president’s chief advisor said that meetings with the Syrian government are continuing at various levels, explaining that there are outstanding files that hinder reaching meetings at the highest level.
He stressed, in statements he made to a local channel recently, the stability and clarity of his country’s position on these issues, and that without resolving them, a meeting between Erdogan and Al-Assad cannot be held, stressing Türkiye’s respect for the territorial integrity of Syria, and its rejection of the control of any terrorist organization there. He added that Ankara has taken some steps to prevent terrorist organizations from controlling the region, for the sake of its national security and for the sake of Syria.
On the other hand, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Guler said that drafting a new constitution for Syria and adopting it is the most important stage for bringing peace there, stressing that the Turkish army will not leave Syria without ensuring the security of its borders and its people. Guler added in a recent local television interview that “Türkiye sincerely wants peace. But we have what we consider to be sensitive points. It is inconceivable that we would leave Syria without ensuring the security of our borders and our people, and I believe that Syrian President Al-Assad will act more rationally on this issue.”
Türkiye is committed to the presence of its forces until a political settlement is reached, a constitution is drawn up, elections are held in Syria on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, and the security of its borders is guaranteed from the threats of Kurdish militants. It believes that the Syrian army does not currently have the ability to extend control over the borders and prevent the establishment of a separatist Kurdish entity.
Calls not to exaggerate
It is clear that many complex matters have imposed themselves in the “Syrian issue,” and impartial estimates suggest that returning things to the way they would require no less than a trillion dollars and dozens of years to return construction and reconstruction of what was destroyed. Most likely, only time will answer the issue of the return of serenity, harmony, and trust within Syrian society, and between Syria and its neighbors, especially Türkiye, after all these stormy years.
Aside from emotions and good intentions, observers believe that Assad’s government cannot fulfill some of the requirements that must be included in any reconciliation agreement, whether to secure the borders or accommodate the return of about 4 million refugees in Türkiye, due to the deteriorating economic situation and the collapse of the infrastructure in Syria. In addition to its inability to secure trade routes, even if Türkiye showed a change in its position regarding military presence in the north of the country, relying on other formulas that guarantee it intervention when necessary deep into Syrian territory, such as amending the Adana Agreement of 1998, and extending the distance for the entry of Turkish forces, as Moscow proposes, Ankara is demanding that the entry distance of its forces be extended from 5 to 30 or 40 kilometers to pursue the Kurdish forces.
It is believed that Türkiye wants to take advantage of the period of preoccupation with the US elections expected next November, to end the issue of the Kurdish threat south of its borders, in agreement with Moscow and Damascus. To make her anxious towards Washington, which maintains its support for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units and the establishment of a Kurdish entity on its southern border.
For its part, Syria has softened its media tone in proportion to the current stage, and observers say that Damascus is no longer its first enemy in Idlib and the areas under Turkish occupation, but rather in northeastern Syria. Instead of inciting Ankara’s “terrorists”, the Kurdish separatists in the People’s Protection Units are now attacking them as “traitors” and “agents of the Americans.”
Observers believe that what we are seeing are steps towards Syrian-Turkish understandings, and that it is always possible to replace the image of the enemy – whether in Türkiye or in Syria. In this case, the Kurds must be considered the common enemy, with all the dire consequences for their self-determination. Realistic observers say that the “Kurdish issue” will not disappear, and it needs a joint effort from Türkiye, Syria, Iran and Iraq to reach a formula acceptable to these countries and the Kurds to end the thorny issue.
On the other hand, Erdogan’s offer to hold talks between Ankara and Damascus represents a welcome gift for Assad, for whom normalizing relations between the two capitals would be a big first step on the international stage. Al-Assad is now using the prospect of Turkish-Syrian meetings to put pressure on his Arab neighbors – who, of course, do not want to lose Syria permanently to their rivals Türkiye and Iran. But keep it Within their own sphere of influence.
Despite all this, in order to be able to agree to a face-saving meeting, Assad needs signs of goodwill from Türkiye – such as the opening of the strategically important M4 highway, which leads through various areas of influence in northern Syria from the city of Latakia on the coast to the Iraqi border. It was secured by Russian-Turkish patrols.
In addition, Erdogan must demonstrate his willingness to withdraw Turkish forces from Syrian opposition areas and leave their management to the Syrian regime. It is possible that the Turkish President will agree to do so on the condition that the Syrian President pledges to once again extend his full control over northeastern Syria. The Kurdish-controlled autonomy project will therefore be dissolved, and Damascus will take over the administration of these areas.
As for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which the West looks up to as allies to fight what is known as the Islamic State (ISIS) – while Ankara describes it as a terrorist due to its ideological links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party – it will be integrated into the Syrian army.
However, implementing these plans is complex. This is because of the Syrian refugees residing in Türkiye, where will they return to when Assad controls all of northern Syria?
It is known that most of these refugees fled Syria due to their disputes with the regime, and they are not welcome and do not feel that they will be safe in Assad’s areas, and therefore they will not return of their own free will. Questions about guarantees of their safety, livelihoods, jobs, education, and other vital matters will remain pending in need of satisfactory answers.
It is true that Türkiye has deported hundreds of Syrian refugees, and Human Rights Watch says that they were taken against their will to Syria, but these deported refugees still end up either in Idlib Governorate, which is under the control of the extremist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham militia, or in the areas occupied by Türkiye.
The role and interests of Russia and Iran
Some Arab and Turkish analysts argue that reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus depends on the role and interests of both Russia and Iran. They point out that the Syrian regime would have been on the verge of collapse had it not been for the intervention of Iran and Russia, which saved him.These experts conclude that because of this, both of them have great influence in Syria ,but they are partners in running the country; Russia entered the warm waters it had been seeking for centuries, and established one of its largest bases in the Mediterranean in Tartus. As for Iran, it has become a partner in trade, military sphere, and administration in Damascus. Experts confirm that without these two countries, the Assad regime cannot survive. If Russia does not press, the Damascus government will never negotiate with Türkiye.
They argue by saying, “But why does Russia want to solve Türkiye’s problems, establish a new administration in Syria, or add new elements to the government? What will it gain in return?”. These Turkish pessimists even go so far as to say that they did not see Russia doing anything for Erdogan and Putin’s friendship, so there must be another Turkish diplomatic stance for Russia to put pressure on Assad.
They ask the same question about Tehran, and say why does Iran want to relieve pressure on Türkiye? Why does it share the power it controls in Damascus with others? In their view, to convince Iran, it must gain much greater gains in resolving the Syria and refugee crisis, which is the biggest headache for Türkiye, which is considered its biggest competitor in the region.
.. I think that the answer to a logic like this is that states are not “charitable societies,” but rather entities governed by interests, and a “winner-winner” logic, and there is no state that provides anything for free.
Reconciliation is necessary because it will change the region
The current scene is unequivocally clear, and perhaps the most prominent thing we see is an overwhelming Turkish desire to reconcile with Syria, given the presence of several urgent “problems” that require a quick solution. The first problem relates to the issue of Syrian refugees, and the necessity of their return to their country.
The second is the “threat” posed by the “Kurdistan Workers’ Party” to Turkish national security, and the “Syrian Democratic Forces” that Ankara sees as linked to it. On the other hand, the Syrian regime wants to end its isolation from Türkiye’s gates and demands the necessity of “setting a timetable to withdraw Turkish forces from Syria,” and insists on “stopping support for terrorists” and discussing the mechanism for classifying them, in reference to the opposition factions that Ankara supports in northern Syria.
Informed Arab sources in Cairo believe that there are several pressing factors that are strongly pushing the “normalization” project between Ankara and Damascus, and the most important of these factors is the new Russian momentum in sponsoring the reconciliation path and Iraq’s entry into the mediation line.
The second thing is that Türkiye needs to involve Damascus in its new strategy to combat terrorism, similar to Iraq, and this “Turkish push” occurring now cannot be separated from “preparation for a possible shift in the American position in Syria in the event that Donald Trump returns to the White House.”
For his part, some experts on Turkish affairs believe that Erdogan’s push towards Assad “is related to the interests of Türkiye and the ruling Justice and Development Party.”
The feverish desire for the necessity of reconciliation with Syria is linked to the refugee problem and the recent events that took place in Kayseri, and Erdogan’s efforts “to emerge from the isolation imposed by his previous positions on the Arab Spring.”
It has become clear that the Turkish President wants to solve the refugee problem in consultation with the Syrian regime, so that there can be a return to the areas ruled by Bashar al-Assad.
Some knowledgeable sources consider that Erdogan’s moves are linked to the change that occurred in Turkish foreign policy, to seek interest rather than political and ideological positions.
I believe that the Turkish government, led by Erdogan, has returned to adopting a policy of “zeroing problems,” and has been working vigorously to build bridges throughout the Middle East in recent years, in harmony with the trends prevailing at the regional level. The main motivations behind Türkiye’s new direction include economic necessities, the decline of the American presence in the region, the arrival of Biden to the US presidency, and recently the possibility of Trump coming to power, the idea that the region is entering a post-Arab Spring phase, as well as the arrival of regional conflicts to a dead end, especially war. in Gaza.
These motives, in addition to several factors specific to Türkiye, contributed to accelerating a broader regional reset process. Some experts believe that on the geopolitical level, ending the anti-Turkish alliance in the eastern Mediterranean and forming a counterweight to Iranian influence constitute the two most prominent paths of current Turkish foreign policy. On the internal level, in light of the deteriorating economic situation, and after holding elections whose results were disappointing to Erdogan, the requirements of dealing with the economic deterioration forced him to recalibrate foreign policy. Moreover, while calm is the prevailing trend in relations between Türkiye on the one hand and the Arab Middle East region on the other hand, fears still exist of tension in Turkish-Iranian and Turkish-Greek relations. To maintain the ongoing regional reset, Ankara sees the need to enter the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, strengthen regional platforms for dialogue, manage differences, and avoid a new cold war between Türkiye, the Arab Gulf states, and Iran. Hence, reconciliation with Syria comes within the framework of Erdogan’s new policy.