Interview to Sputnik Türkiye.
Interview to Sputnik Türkiye.
UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan answered questions from Ceyda Karan of Sputnik Türkiye.
Güzaltan shared his views on the Munich Security Conference, the situation in the Atlantic alliance, the objectives of a possible attack on Iran, and Russia-West and Türkiye-West relations.
We present the interview translated into English.
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“Capitalism and the West as the owner of the system are collapsing”
Running deeper than the breakdown of the post-1945 order, Güzaltan thinks that Europe, the architect of the system itself, is facing profound problems:
“When you look at it as a whole, humanity seems suspended between the old and the new. This transition is being very painful. You can see this reflected in the remarks of Marco Rubio. It’s not merely the collapse of the order established after 1945. It is much greater and heavier. Capitalism and the entire economic system built upon it, along with the social, political, and moral structures surrounding it, are collapsing altogether. And the West, which owns this system, is collapsing along with it.
As this entire order collapses, everyone is asking the same question: ‘What will replace it?’ How will the rest of humanity, the Global South, the oppressed world, respond?
The Munich Security Conference became a platform where the West debated its roadmap for what is being described as a ‘multipolar and order not based on rules’ The statements made by Rubio and other officials were significant. Last year, the US Vice President JD Vance attended the conference and his remarks toward Europe were highly negative. This year, however, Rubio played the ‘good cop.’ He advanced the claim that in the new order, the US and Europe would stand together and that a Western civilization led by Washington would once again dominate the world. Whether that is realistic is open to debate.”
“The US is also internally divided”
Pointing to the social repercussions of Europe’s decline, Güzaltan highlighted the falling support for ruling parties across the continent. According to him, a similar process is unfolding in the US too, in different forms:
“In Europe, the collapse is much more visible. Polls in France, Germany, and the UK show ruling parties losing popularity and economies in decline. Europe is grappling with migration and with conflicts stemming from the difficulty of different ethnic groups living together. Europe is experiencing this collapse most clearly.
The US, too, is deeply divided and fragmented internally. We saw this in the ICE incidents. Clashes between supporters and opponents of Donald Trump have at times escalated to deadly confrontations. Economically they are fragile, and politically Trump’s future hangs by a thread. Although they staged a show by abducting the leader of Venezuela, they have grown weaker on multiple fronts. For instance, in Ukraine they have been unable to overpower Russia.”
“There are forces within Europe seeking closer ties with Russia and China”
Güzaltan argues that the notion of a “Civilizational Identity” which the US is trying to put in circulation, is essentially groundless. He points out that there are significant political forces within Europe that favor cooperation with Russia and China:
“There is this concept of ‘Civilizational Identity’ theorized by Irina Semenenko. It argues that the nation-state is no longer sufficient, and that Western-centric understanding of identity is flawed, and that the only viable path forward lies in ‘Civilizational Identity.’ The US is trying to apply this framework internally as well. It places itself at the center, defines the entire West around that core, and seeks to revive the Atlantic Alliance by giving it a new ideological armor. The repeated references to WW2 and the Cold War are not accidental in this sense.
But this lacks real grounding. There are many forces within Europe that want to distance themselves from the US, and instead rebuild relations with Russia and China. This was palpable in the Munich Security Conference. The Chinese foreign minister emphasized cooperation with Europe in his speech. The real question is which path Europe will choose. Will it continue as a US vassal, or will it pursue an independent course by building relations with Russia, China, Africa, and Türkiye? The Ukraine issue, in essence, was also about who would control Europe’s direction. The Munich meeting was also partly a debate about Europe’s future.”
“The Russians know that if they step back, the US will impose destruction”
According to Güzaltan, while Western media claims that Russia is in crisis, it is in fact the West is in that. He also says that Moscow is aware of the consequences of any potential retreat:
“Since the beginning of the Ukraine issue, the European press has repeatedly claimed that Russia is collapsing. But what we have seen instead is that it has led to Europe’s collapse itself.
Of course, sanctions have had an impact on Russia. But Russian society has been conditioned since the collapse of the Soviet Union to live under sanctions and in a state of semi-cold, semi-hot confrontation. I witnessed developments firsthand in 2022 with the start of the war and thought the society may panic. Yet daily life continued as normal. There were no long lines at banks or supermarkets. A certain level of social discipline allows economic and social life to carry on despite pressure.
There are naturally hardships of course. As I said, sanctions have had effects. However, politically, a large segment of the public supports the current government. Many Russians remember the chaos, corruption, and decay that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they have no desire to return to that period. They also understand that if Russia were to step back, the US would once again attempt to impose a destructive course on them.
Politically, Russia is consolidated. It is rich in oil and gas, and it retains an industrial base. It is expanding cooperation with China. Socially, there is also a strong emphasis on preserving values.
I had the opportunity to interview the French thinker Alain Soral. He began by saying, ‘France is currently in a state of civil war.’ Yes, this is true. When you speak to objective observers, you can conclude that Europe as a whole is undergoing a comprehensive process of decline.”
“The US and Israel are preparing to attack Iran”
Güzaltan argues that the US, Israel, and the broader West aim to neutralize Iran in order to weaken the Caucasus, Russia, Central Asia, and China, which moves us toward war:
“As the existing order weakens, the façade is crumbling. They no longer even feel the need to hide behind pretexts like human rights. They say openly what they want. They seek to seize Iran’s oil and change the regime. That is what Israel and the West want.
Iran is an important energy hub. By rendering Iran unstable, they aim to weaken Russia through the Caucasus by opening up a new front. They also want to destabilize Central Asia and China, effectively blocking China’s access to Europe via the Belt and Road Initiative.
They want to weaken Iran, thus strengthening Israel. From Palestine to the overthrow of Assad in Syria, from Iraq to Yemen, the moves have consistently aimed at limiting Iran’s power. Now they believe they have isolated Iran and want to strike.
They are conducting internal destabilization operations. The Iranian government responded by cutting internet access. Starlink terminals were sent in, and Iran blocked them likely by using technology obtained from Russia or China. That first move appears to have been thus neutralized.
We are also seeing signs of internal consolidation in Iran. We read reports of purges in bureaucratic and political circles. I believe we are heading toward war.
“Türkiye should pursue regional cooperation in Iran”
According to Güzaltan, Türkiye, which played a role in Assad’s overthrow in Syria, is losing out as long as it remains allied with the West. Now in Iran, he hopes for another approach:
“From the breakup of Yugoslavia to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, Türkiye has consistently been negatively affected. As long as Türkiye stays within the Western camp, it ends up paying the price. Not only Türkiye, but the entire region suffers.
The economic, military, and demographic costs of the war in Syria for Türkiye have been enormous, because Türkiye aligned with the West in Syria. I hope the approach will be different regarding Iran.
The only way to prevent further escalation is through regional unity. Imagine a framework in which Türkiye, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt act together in concrete terms. Türkiye has the capacity for that. In that case, we would not have to live under the constant anxiety of when the US might strike. There is only one solution: regional cooperation.
Today, Western outlets are circulating images of Turkish soldiers. The West’s intentions toward Türkiye are not benign. The real question is why Türkiye’s leadership remains so committed to stay in the Western camp despite all the heavy costs. That is what needs to be debated first.”
