Is India’s foreign policy undergoing a structural change?

India…

A leading actor in the new world order whose birth pangs are shaking the globe…

Therefore, every step it takes in foreign policy is closely followed.

I discussed India’s foreign policy aligned with the US, Russia, China, and BRICS, the trade agreement signed between India and the US, and the allegations that India has ended its oil purchases from Russia in connection with this agreement, with Dr. Shoaib Khan from Mumbai University.

Dr. Khan, one of India’s foremost experts on Eurasia, provides valuable insights into understanding India’s approach to foreign policy through his responses.

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Is it true that India has limited or even stopped its oil purchases from Russia following the trade agreement with the US? What does this decision mean?

A key element of the understanding, according to Trump, is India’s commitment to stop both direct and indirect imports of Russian crude oil, a move Washington considers essential to increasing economic pressure on Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. While the executive order says that India has committed to ending direct or indirect imports of Russian oil, New Delhi has reiterated that safeguarding the energy needs and security of its 1.4 billion citizens of remains its foremost priority.

Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, a move that could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington.

Although a U.S.-India statement on the trade framework did not mention Russian oil, President Donald Trump rescinded his 25% tariffs on Indian goods, imposed over Russian oil purchases, because, he said, New Delhi had “committed to stop directly or indirectly” importing Russian oil.

India fell to third place among buyers of Russian fossil fuels in December after Reliance Industries and state-owned refiners sharply cut crude oil imports, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted Russian crude after Western countries shunned Moscow following its February 2022 war with Ukraine.

The government cannot obviously be hoping that imports of all kinds of goods and services from the US would suddenly more than double in just a few months, even if tariffs are reduced to zero; it must therefore be banking on a reduction in Russian oil imports and its substitution by American oil, for that is something it can actually bring about. This not only amounts to acceding to what the Americans have been demanding for some time but would raise our oil import bill and give a push to inflationary pressures. This is because American oil is at least about 20% more expensive than Russian oil.

On average, about one-third of India’s total oil imports comes from Russia; this, of course, was before the government started cutting down on such imports in recent months, but such cutting down itself was a prelude to the Trade Agreement, so that its effect should be counted not separately but along with that of the Trade Agreement.

Will the decisions taken regarding Russia affect India’s place in BRICS? How do you see India’s future in BRICS?

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the United States of trying to prevent India and other countries from buying Russian oil, describing Washington’s policies as coercive and aimed at achieving global economic domination.

Trump had claimed while announcing a trade arrangement with India that New Delhi agreed to stop procuring Russian oil. In an executive order, he also rolled back an additional 25 per cent tariff imposed last August over India’s continued purchases of Russian crude. India, however, has maintained that energy procurement decisions will be guided by national interests.

In recent years, the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has emerged as a

prominent political force among the major emerging economies, seeking to reshape global governance and offer an alternative to western-dominated institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the United Nations (UN) Security Council.

India’s participation in the BRICS reflects its broader foreign policy objectives of maintaining strategic autonomy and strengthening its influence on global governance. 

I don’t think the decision will affect its position in BRICS till India is firm on its decision of neutral policy and think of its national interests like China where it does not succumb to any Western pressure.

Can we talk about a structural shift in India’s foreign policy in favor of the US?

The year 2025 was arguably India’s most challenging foreign policy year. The four day conflict with Pakistan in May was followed by a downturn in India–US relations. The Trump administration imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian crude and the failure to secure a trade deal by the agreed deadline. Adding insult to injury, Washington increased its outreach to Islamabad. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit India for the BRICS summit, and US President Donald Trump could visit India if the Quad summit goes ahead. New Delhi argued these developments vindicate its multi-aligned foreign policy, the cracks in India’s longstanding commitment to strategic autonomy are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

India’s careful international balancing act was clear in its response to the US attack on Venezuela. Among BRICS members, India was the least vocal in its response to the attack and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Its Ministry of External Affairs issued a brief statement that expressed ‘deep concern’ about recent developments, while the government’s main focus has been to support and safeguard Indian nationals in Venezuela.

India supports the growing reality of a multipolar world and of a multipolar Asia, and it actively participates in global negotiations to advance the common interests of the international community, including itself. Evidently, the emerging realist approach in India’s foreign policy underscores the country’s independent goals, to be achieved with a view to accomplishing its vital national interests, while discouraging alignment of nation-states into rival groups.

Over the last few years, India has made efforts to strengthen ties with the West to reduce its long-standing dependency on Russia and de facto enhance its strategic autonomy vis-à-vis the threats posed by China, including Beijing’s strong ties with Moscow and Islamabad. Now we are witnessing a shift: India is cautiously cultivating relations with China while keeping  Russia close. At the same time, India continues to deepen relations with other key partners such as the EU, Japan and Australia, so as to broaden its options. 

Are there any reactions within India to the trade agreement with the US?

The deal announced this month has rattled India’s powerful farmers’ unions, who argue that cheap US imports would throttle local producers in a country where agriculture employs more than 700 million people.

The most contentious pledge is India’s stated intention to buy $500 billion worth of US goods over five years. India’s annual imports from the US last fiscal year were around $45 billion.

Indian stocks and the rupee are set for strong gains after a trade deal that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers. In the other hand Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Sunday launched a pointed attack on the Centre over the trade deal with the US, reasserting that it could “betray” Indian farmers and compromise the country’s agricultural sovereignty.

Raising five specific questions to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he sought clarity on multiple points including, genetically modified crops, removal of non-trade barriers, and concerns about opening floodgates to American agricultural products.

US imports would throttle local producers in a country where agriculture employs more than 700 million people.

Do you think India will be part of the global de-dollarization trend in the medium term?

Recent financial and currency initiatives, particularly within the BRICS+ framework, seek to lessen dependence on the US dollar-dominated system (de-dollarization) and establish alternative mechanisms for global trade and finance. 

Oil trades have sometimes been settled in the Chinese yuan, Russian ruble or Indian rupee, but the idea of “de-dollarization” — or moving away from the U.S. dollar to settle trades in other currencies — is still far away. geopolitical upheavals such as US sanctions and economic uncertainties, have influenced a global movement towards de-dollarization – reducing dependency on the dollar in favor of alternatives like the Euro, Chinese Yuan, or domestic currencies.

This opens up the de-dollarization as an easy yet entangled possibility to India, an emerging country with encompassing economic power. Although India has not taken any direct steps to weaken the dollar as the global reserve currency, its moves to encourage the trading of Indian Rupees and bilateral currency agreements, among others, hold the indication that it is taking a practical step towards the diversification of its financial consumerism.

Indian approach towards de-dollarization is a cautiously active approach, which continues to balance the pragmatic approach of economic interests and long-range strategic positioning.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has also emphasized that de-dollarization is not part of India’s policy, reflecting that India need to have strong relations with the US, who is a key trading partner. As of 2025, banks from 30 countries, including Russia, Malaysia, and the UAE, are authorized to open Special Vostro Rupee Accounts for Rupee-based trade. 

India has already experimented with the ‘rupee settlement’ mechanism, where the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed trade settlement between India and other countries in rupees. This step was taken mainly to conduct trade with countries facing Western sanctions, mainly Russia. Although such measures may ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, growing uncertainty persists over the continued depreciation of the national currency against the dollar.

India will continue to face this dilemma if it continues to be a part of such arrangements, which are challenging the prevalent US-led norms of the international system. India continues to depend heavily on the West for its developmental objectives. India’s balancing act—between its identity as a leading voice of the Global South and its strategic alignment with Western powers—creates a constant tension in its foreign policy choices.

Continued participation in groupings that seek to reorient the global order, without undermining its development trajectory and strategic autonomy, will require India to navigate these dualities with extreme caution and pragmatism.

From an Indian perspective, how does the U.S.’s aggressive policies in Latin America and West Asia appear?

 In response to 2026 U.S. military actions in Venezuela, India has adopted a cautious, pragmatic stance, calling for peaceful dialogue and stability without directly condemning Washington. While facing pressure to oppose U.S. “imperialist aggression,” New Delhi prioritizes its strategic interests, balancing ties with the U.S. against its growing economic, energy, and South-South partnership with Latin American nations. 

India said recent developments in Venezuela are a matter of deep concern and that it is closely monitoring the evolving situation. New Delhi reaffirmed its support for the well-being and safety of the Venezuelan people and urged all parties to resolve issues peacefully through dialogue to ensure regional peace and stability.

Political leaders of different hues in India have unequivocally denounced US ‘aggression’ in Venezuela, terming it a gross breach of the UN Charter and the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign nations. They warned that attempts to destabilize governments or abduct elected leaders set a dangerous global precedent. The leaders also slammed the Narendra Modi government’s muted response to the US aggression and urged it to take a principled stand.

They strongly condemned US attack on Venezuela as US imperialist aggression against the Latin American nation and an alleged conspiracy to abduct the country’s democratically elected President and the First Lady, calling it a grave violation of international law and national sovereignty.

Amid the escalating Israel-Iran-Israel conflict and the ongoing genocide in the Gaza region, India carefully calibrated West Asia policy is facing its most serious test yet. What was once seen as a strategic diplomatic balancing act — fostering deepening ties with Israel, expanding energy and trade links with the Gulf, and maintaining a working relationship with Iran — now appears to be unraveling, revealing inconsistencies under mounting geopolitical pressure.

The reality is that there has been a steady strengthening of India’s relationship with Israel ever since the two countries established full diplomatic relations in 1992. In recent years, India has been more willing to carve out a mutually beneficial relationship including deepening military ties and countering the threat that terrorism poses to the two societies. Before 1992, India had made the normalization of relations contingent upon the resolution of the Palestinian issue. In 1992, India decided to delink the two, making it clear that it was not prepared to make an independent Palestinian state a precondition for improving ties with Israel. 

India’s silence on Israeli aggression, repeated abstentions at the United Nations, and its apparent hesitancy to fully engage with a rapidly evolving crisis have cast doubt on its global posture and ambitions to be the voice of the Global South. For a country aspiring to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, its current stance has sparked uncomfortable questions at home and abroad.

Indian foreign policy faces conflicting choices in West Asia, and India’s ties with Israel will remain a function of its relationship with other states in the region. There are no easy policy choices to be made, but the conflicting imperative of continuing to strengthen its ties with Israel, along with courting other states in the region, especially Iran, will be a tough task indeed for Indian diplomacy. And this is what got reflected in the most recent debate in Parliament on Israel as well as in India’s decision to vote against Israel at the UNHRC.

At the core of India’s foreign policy dilemma is its long-standing attempt to juggle strategic relationships in West Asia. For several years, India managed an impressive equilibrium: cultivating close defense and intelligence ties with Israel, while preserving historic links with Iran and strengthening economic partnerships with Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Trump administration is being shaken by the Epstein documents. Will this have repercussions for India-US relations?

The documents name some of the world’s richest and most powerful figures, including politicians and businessmen deeply embedded within the system.

The visual details from Epstein’s island, along with the language used in the emails — particularly in their references to women, underage girls and children — have left viewers shocked and dismayed, fuelling disillusionment over the alleged involvement of those in positions of authority who were meant to protect the public alongside an offender.

Documents released on Friday reveal conversations between Anil Ambani, the billionaire chairman of Reliance Group who is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Epstein. All the conversations took place in the years following Epstein’s first conviction for sex offences in 2008. The two emailed each other about a range of issues, from sizing up incoming US ambassadors to India to setting up meetings for Modi with top US officials.

Epstein Files is a case of absolute systemic failure of administration of law and justice in the USA, but it is equally a case of unprecedented legal jurisprudence on transparency, which the Indian lawyers enviously look at, given their track record on transparency in the judicial system in their own backyard.  

The unsealing of thousands of documents related to convicted offender Jeffrey Epstein has triggered a fierce political storm in India, following the verified appearance of high-profile Indian names in the records. The revelations, mandated by the Epstein Files Transparency Act, confirm backchannel communications and meetings but, crucially, provide no evidence linking Indian figures to Epstein’s criminal human trafficking network. The impact is instead focused on elite geopolitical networking and has become a flashpoint for political accountability.

The US India relations in the background of Epstein file is concerned may not be much affected in their initial stages. But as the developments takes place further and more names and information are revealed, the pressures from oppositions may mount on the respective governments. If more secret dealings come out, and if questions are raised on the level and state of contacts, will have effect on all types of relations between the countries.