Tom Barrack, US’s ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria, made a statement that led a new wave of discussion in Turkish media and public opinion on Türkiye-Israel relations.
Speaking on Saturday at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, Barrack said:
“Türkiye and Israel will not be at war with each other. In my opinion, it’s not going to happen. And you are going to get alignment from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.
(…) My bet, by the way, with Türkiye and Israel is if we hold together, if the momentum holds together, Jared and Steve and the great teams keep this moving in Gaza, that not too long of a time you will see a trade deal between Türkiye and Israel.”
UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan shared his views with us on Barrack’s remarks and the current dynamics in the region.
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Not a prediction, but a project
To understand Barrack’s comments properly, we first need to see that they reflect not a prediction but a new US project for the region. This project unfolds in several stages.
The first and most important stage is Syria. After the fall of Assad, the plan appears to be to normalize Türkiye–Israel ties under a US’s umbrella.
Secondly, the project aims to normalize relations between the Syrian government and Israel, thereby removing Syria as a potential threat to Israel.
Thirdly, they want to eliminate Hezbollah in Lebanon. Note that Barrack and other US officials have been visiting Lebanon frequently in recent months.
The fourth part of the project seeks to proceed with the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states that still do not recognize it.
And fifth, US-Israel aims to eliminate the Houthis in Yemen.
Isolating Iran
Viewed together, it points to a single picture from the US–Israeli perspective: Isolating Iran by normalizing and thus neutralizing states in the region relative to Israel and weakening the forces that resist Israel.
For Türkiye, this process has dimensions proceeding parallel to each other. The first is the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process in Türkiye. The second is to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces into the Syrian government within Washington’s framework, which is to remove what Türkiye perceives as a security threat. The US is trying to ease Türkiye’s concerns while tacitly securing Ankara’s and Damascus’s acceptance of Israel’s presence in southern Syria.
The ultimate outcome of all this would be Iran’s isolation. It would also cut the logistical lifelines of resistance movements in Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. That, in turn, would create conditions favorable for a possible US–Israeli attack on Iran.
US’s primary priority
For the US, the primary priority is ensuring Israel’s “security”. To achieve that, Washington seeks to harmonize the positions and expectations of various states and actors, at least to the extent that they can coexist within its project. That is why Barrack has repeatedly circled back to the same theme since taking up his office. I had written about this earlier. And with his recent statement, Barrack has now made the project explicit.
That is the picture for West Asia. If we widen the lens further, the US’s project of isolating and weakening Iran appears to aim for broader outcomes. One aim is to remove Russia’s foothold that opens into West Asia. A second aim is to create instability in the Caucasus, thereby opening a second front against Russia. A third aim is to block China’s access to West Asia.