Trump 2.0 and Southeast Asia: A new chessboard

By Orçun Göktürk, Beijing / China

Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape the balance in Southeast Asia. The revival of the Trump administration’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy carries significant risks not only for China but also for other regional countries. For traditional US allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, a stronger stance shaped by the US “containment of China” strategy will undoubtedly be welcomed. On the other hand, developing countries in the region, particularly ASEAN members, are likely to be concerned about escalating military tensions.

For China, the world’s largest free trade agreement—the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—has made its economic ties in the region stronger than ever. As the competition between the US and China intensifies in this geography, some countries will try to balance their own interests, though it’s clear that many nations and regional populations face an uncertain future. Nevertheless, this uncertainty also holds the potential for significant opportunities. The Trump 2.0 era signals the beginning of a new chessboard in Southeast Asia.

Analysis from RAND Corporation

The RAND Corporation, a think tank with significant influence over U.S. foreign policy elites and especially the Pentagon, has provided some clues on this topic in an article by senior defense analyst Derek Grossman titled “ Trump 2.0 Could Give China a Headache in Southeast Asia.” The analysis, which argues that Trump’s return to the White House in January represents both “hope and danger” for Southeast Asia, highlights the following points:

• The Indo-Pacific strategy, focused on countering China and strengthening alliances and partnerships across the region, will be revived.

• This approach will be applauded by countries like the Philippines and Vietnam. However, others, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, may be concerned about the potential for war.

• Overall, Trump’s likely policies could position the US to compete more effectively with China in the region over the long term.

The author summarizes that “the clear winners of a more hawkish U.S. strategy against China in Southeast Asia will be the Philippines and Vietnam.”

What awaits China and the regional countries?

The primary stance that increases the potential for conflict in the South China Sea does not come from China but from the US. The US is increasing its military investments in countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, and Japan. From the perspective of developing countries in the region, let us examine the US-China power struggle:

Philippines

After the anti-imperialist Duterte administration, a pro-American government has come to power in the Philippines, which will continue to play the role of a “functional pawn” for Trump. Last year, the Philippine government granted the US access to seven military bases, four of which are newly added. Since presidential elections are held every six years, this “functional pawn” role could give Trump an advantage until the next general election in 2028.

Indonesia

Indonesia, one of ASEAN’s largest and Southeast Asia’s emerging “game-changer” countries, has a decisive role to play. Early this year, Indonesia signed a comprehensive arms deal with the US, including a Memorandum of Understanding for the procurement of F-15EX aircraft. The country also completed an agreement with France to purchase 42 Rafale jets. The total commercial value of these agreements exceeds $23 billion.

Indonesia also has particularly advanced trade relations with China. In 2023, trade between the two countries approached $150 billion. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner, and Indonesia ran a relatively small trade deficit with China of $13 billion compared to other countries. Large-scale infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative continue in the country. Furthermore, Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, could challenge Trump due to its strong stance against Israel’s inhumane attacks in Palestine.

Additionally, Indonesia’s president recently visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping. The Chinese Communist Party’s main publication, People’s Daily, reported the meeting under the headline that “Trust Deepens, Joint Efforts Increase in Relations Between the Two Countries.”

Vietnam

Vietnam experienced a relationship with the Trump administration between 2016 and 2020 that was both tense and close. Under Trump, Vietnam faced accusations of “currency manipulation” and a lawsuit was filed, which was later withdrawn during the Biden administration. In addition, a report prepared by then-Secretary of State Pompeo in 2020 titled “Communist China and the Future of the Free World”caused unease in Vietnam, as the country is ruled by a Communist Party.

Nonetheless, Vietnam also witnessed numerous “sincere” statements from Trump and Pompeo. U.S. elites often describe Vietnam as “authoritarian capitalist.” In recent years, Vietnam has become a growing investment hub for Western companies as labor costs in China have increased. In 2019, Pompeo even praised Vietnam, suggesting that “North Korea could achieve an economic miracle by following Vietnam’s path”.

Malaysia

Malaysia, alongside Indonesia, is a challenge for Trump’s containment of China strategy, particularly due to its stance on the Middle East. Officially supporting Hamas, a symbol of Palestinian resistance, Malaysia may resist Trump if U.S. policies on Israel remain unchanged. According to the RAND report, ” Trump’s likely strong support of Israel, which is unpopular in the Muslim-majority country. Malaysia has come out in staunch support of Hamas and would thus oppose Trump if his Israel policy remains intact. Notably, neither of the other two Muslim-majority nations in Southeast Asia—Brunei and Indonesia—have taken a similar stance to Malaysia’s.”

The Taiwan issue

Trump provided significant clues on Taiwan policy in an interview with Bloomberg last July. He stated, “How stupid are we? Taiwan has wiped out our entire microchip industry, and they owe us for protecting them militarily.” In the same interview, Trump acknowledged the irrationality of a potential war scenario from the US perspective, saying, “Taiwan is right on China’s doorstep, while we are thousands of miles away.”

Although the separatist Democratic Progressive Party won the recent presidential elections in Taiwan, it lost its parliamentary majority. While official rhetoric on the island has become more separatist, there is little public support for such a stance. In this regard, developments on the island are not moving in favor of the US

Opportunities arising from the US’s decline

Trump will likely attempt to redesign a major alliance against China using the AUKUS nuclear pact with the UK and Australia and traditional allies like Japan, India, and South Korea. Additionally, he will seek to reset relations with countries often labeled “authoritarian” in the Western media, such as Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

The most significant reality for the US, however, is that China is the largest trading partner for nearly every country in the region, and China is better prepared for the Trump era than ever before. Furthermore, the US is in stalemate situation in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea and has lost traditional alliances in Africa and Central Asia, where anti-imperialist struggles are gaining strength.

From China’s perspective, the RCEP agreement signed at the end of 2020 has enhanced economic and political integration between China and regional countries. Militarily, while the West’s characterization of a “China preparing for war” is baseless, China continues to focus on a “self-defense strategy” and has increased its “reserve forces” as part of the 2024 military budget.

The US will pursue a “global contraction strategy” during the Trump era, shifting its primary focus to the Asia-Pacific. Meanwhile, China may accelerate its “Global Initiatives” in the coming period. For oppressed nations, this could be an era of strengthening state independence, breaking free from the dependency imposed by imperialist powers, and adopting a more symmetrical and genuinely win-win philosophy in international relations.