Uruguay elects president. What foreign policy is at stake?

By Micaela Constantini*

Next Sunday November 24, the second round of elections will take place in Uruguay where the people will choose their new president for the next 5 years, in an international context that has changed drastically.

The first round held on October 27 had a large electoral turnout. 90% of citizens went to the polls, which left the candidate for the Frente Amplio (Broad Front), Yamandú Orsi, with 43.9% of the votes and the ruling National Party, Álvaro Delgado, with 26.8%.

In addition, in the first round of elections, the composition of the General Assembly was defined. In the Chamber of Senators where 30 seats were disputed, the Frente Amplio won 16 seats, taking the majority, while the National Party won 9 seats and the Colorado Party 5 seats. Even forming a coalition between the National Party and the Colorado Party, they do not manage to confront the Frente Amplio.

In the House of Representatives or Deputies, where 99 seats were disputed, the Gfremte Amplio won 48 seats, achieving a strong representation although short of an absolute majority. The National Party won 29 seats, the Colorado Party 17 seats, Cabildo Abierto won about 2 seats and the other 3 seats are distributed among minority parties.

These first results in October yield a series of forceful conclusions. On the one hand, the parliamentary results establish that after almost 20 years the government of the day will not manage with the majority in both chambers, so a complex moment of governability opens up for whoever assumes the presidency, of possible negotiations and agreements or the use of decrees. However, in the event of a victory for the Frente Amplio, the majority in the Senate, which would be presided over by Carolina Cosse, could give it a great advantage in decisions such as the appointments, designations or removals of officials of relevance in the country. In the case of the House of Representatives, the action of the Frente Amplio as a bloc also assigns it a certain advantage because this body admits approval by majorities by quorum and/or by affirmative/negative votes, in the face of a divided coalition that opens the possibility of negotiations individually and not as an opposition bloc.

On the other hand, for the right, it has been a terrible campaign resulting from not having been able to reach an agreement to go together into the electoral contest. However, it may be that after this sharp first round of elections, it will result in the alliance of the historic National and Colorado Parties that will stop competing to face the Frente Amplio.

Another point to mention that the result of the first round yielded was the deplorable result of Cabildo Abierto, which not only has not managed to meet its expectations, but has lost three seats in the Senate, reducing its participation and influence, and has also lost citizen electoral support. In fact, the leader of Cabildo Abierto, Guido Manini, will lose his immunity as a senator, which could impact the investigation of the prosecutor’s office where he is accused of concealment of information in cases of crimes against humanity.

The Yamandú Orsi – Carolina Cosse and Álvaro Delgado – Valeria Ripoll formulas are vying for the presidency in this second round of elections, where the Frente Amplio, even with a percentage of victory in the first round of elections, should have continued to dispute and militate every vote in these weeks because, if the unified right manages to maintain all the votes obtained in the first round, it may reverse the trend on November 24.

Whoever assumes the presidency in the South American country will be key to leading the strategic positioning in the regional framework in Our America, but also in front of

the challenges and opportunities posed by the consolidation of the multipolar world with the BRICS leading the process.

While for the National Party the focus of Foreign Policy is on economic and commercial insertion with an emphasis on greater openness to attract investment, the Frente Amplio has a geopolitical analysis positioned as anti-imperialist, in solidarity with the peoples who face imperial attacks, with awareness of how “some powers and sectors of transnational capital seek to ensure the possession, the control and administration of our resources”, with Latin Americanist and internationalist thought with strong opposition to considering that Our America is the “backyard” of the United States and to militarism in the region respecting what was agreed by the South Atlantic as a zone of peace and cooperation.

The National Party’s program headlines the international point “A Uruguay more open to the world,” and the Frente Amplio titles “A sovereign country in a new world situation.”

To deepen the analysis of Uruguay’s international politics, we spoke with Pablo Álvarez, president of the International Relations Commission of the Frente Amplio (CARIFA), with Agustina Alejandro, a member of the Frente Amplio’s international team, and with Mateo Grille, journalist, editor of the magazine Caras y Caretas de Uruguay and correspondent for Telesur.

Foreign policy perspective

Lacalle Pou’s government has been characterized by a type of foreign policy focused on trade and the economy with an emphasis on opening up to free trade by promoting bilateral agreements outside the framework of Mercosur, which has generated tensions within the bloc. Lacalle Pou has sought to strengthen ties with the United States based on bilateral free trade agreements; in the training of the Uruguayan armed forces and security forces under the well-known rhetoric of the fight against organized crime, cybersecurity, and the protection of critical infrastructures; in cooperation with the intelligence services.

The current government has also maintained a pragmatic stance with regard to China, with whom it has strengthened the relationship, becoming one of the main trading partners. Regarding Venezuela, Lacalle Pou has been extremely harsh with Nicolás Maduro, treating him as a dictator and having committed fraud.

The three interviewees highlighted the importance of a Uruguayan foreign policy focused on integration, focused on Mercosur and a vision that goes beyond the merely commercial and economic.

Pablo Álvarez stressed that the “Frente Amplio is going to bet strongly on regional integration as a central element of its foreign policy,” especially considering “a global scenario that is promoting integration, as a matter of fact, through the path of regionalism.” In this sense, he assured that “without a doubt he will try to strengthen Mercosur and make Mercosur also beneficial for negotiation with third parties.”

Finally, the president of CARIFA said that he expects a victory for the Frente Amplio to return to Uruguay in the historical position regarding “respect for the norms of international law, the peaceful resolution of conflicts and the right to non-interference and self-determination. This seems to me to be important, since we had a rather erratic policy in terms of foreign policy in this regard in the current government.”

For her part, Agustina Alejandro, stressed that “in a multipolar world that develops in blocs, the strengthening of multilateral spheres is of vital importance, and in that sense, everything that has to do with foreign policy policy, defense policy, etc., of the Frente Amplio is oriented towards integration and especially Mercosur,  even with the difficulties or vicissitudes that we may find in the region such as Milei’s government in Argentina, or what happens in Bolivia, aligned with Lula’s government in Brazil, but emphasizing regional integration.”

Mateo Grille, said he has no doubts that, if the Front accesses the government again, there are three pillars that will guide political action.

“The Frente Amplio (FA) has maintained fundamental principles since its foundation in February 1971. Its political principles, incorporated in its statutes, are, among others, that it is an anti-imperialist political force that respects the self-determination of peoples and rejects any kind of interference in the internal affairs of other states. In addition, it defines itself as a peaceful and pacifying force, values shared by all its members and that should guide its foreign policy,” says the journalist.

Therefore, if it wins on November 24, “the Frente Amplio aspires to a solid integration with the Latin American peoples, particularly of the Southern Cone, and plans to strengthen organizations such as Mercosur, as well as other continental cooperation entities, with a broad vision that goes beyond the economic,” says Grille.

Projection on Mercosur

Lacalle Pou has sought to reform some points of the functioning of Mercosur, especially in terms of greater flexibility and openness when trading with other countries bilaterally. The current president has advocated for a rapid implementation of the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, strongly resisted by other members who have positioned themselves seeking to defend national and regional sovereignty in the face of an unequal and asymmetrical agreement.

Agustina Alejandro, said that “Mercosur needs to be strengthened, it needs to renew its institutionality, which does not imply the same positioning of the president (Lacalle Pou) who considers Mercosur as a burden, but from a place where the strengthening of the bloc serves to be able to negotiate externally, since there have been historical obstacles.”

“Mercosur is an organization that is not created by ideological affinities, but that is weakened by a lack of ideological affinities and by the lack of cohesion within our own governments,” explained the militant of the international team of the Frente Amplio, and assured that this is why “a Mercosur that thinks about the 21st century is needed,  that thinks about the geopolitical and regional dynamics that are needed for the new global dynamics, for this a commitment to its institutionality is required but especially, political will”.

For Grille, “the integration processes in Latin America are complex and are highly conditioned by the correlations of internal forces of the countries, which are the ones that can be built at certain times.”

In this sense, the journalist clarified that there are many differences between the National Party and the Frente Amplio regarding Mercosur. For example, “the right wing campaigned talking about Mercosur as if it were a burden, it even wanted to break it but could not. For the current government, Mercosur does not seem to be necessary, although it is a purely declarative position because a large part of our trade is with Mercosur countries, mainly Brazil and Argentina. In other words, there are probably many things to improve, but Mercosur is very relevant and is our first trading partner, so far from making permanent propaganda against it, it should rather be strengthened and understood not only as a trade bloc, which it also is, but we should bet on deepening integration in other dimensions because it is also a way of supporting our own sovereignty.”

Geopolitical positioning in international conflicts

On this point, Pablo Álvarez, said that “the discussions on geopolitical matters in the Frente Amplio are an important element, the analyses and assessments of the impacts with respect to the positions in some of the conflicts for the Frente Amplio have had different views inside, but they find the focus on respecting and trying to fully exercise international law”.

“Regarding the situation in Israel and Palestine, the Frente Amplio has historically supported the two-state solution with mutually recognized borders as it existed until

the year 67, and in any case, today the situation of massacre that is being committed against the people of Palestine is also strongly denounced,” said Álvarez.

For Mateo Grille, “Uruguay’s position will change if the Frente Amplio enters the government.”

In this sense, he explained that although “Uruguay has a tradition and a coherence regarding its position in international conflicts, historically advocating peace and proclaiming its respect for international law, this current government modified the country’s historical positions and decided to break with that tradition on some very sensitive and current issues such as the conflict between Israel and Palestine.”

“In this sense, from the first moment [the current government of Luis Lacalle Pou] modified some historical positions of the country at the UN, at the Human Rights Council, and even with announcements such as the opening of a diplomatic representation in Jerusalem, contravening resolutions of the UN Security Council. The current Uruguayan government showed this alignment with Israel and continues to do so with almost periodic statements of support for its actions in the framework of the current phase of aggression against the people of Palestine,” Grille said.

The journalist also said that “it is painful to note the silence of the Uruguayan government in the face of the massacre against the population of Gaza that has already cost thousands of deaths, mostly women and children, tens of thousands of disappeared, hundreds of thousands of mutilated, millions displaced and the total destruction of the Gaza Strip and other territories.”  and assured that if the Frente Amplio wins, the government’s policy would change and “the country will once again assume a position of condemnation of violence, respect for international law, human rights, the recognition of the existence of two peoples and the coexistence of both peacefully” adding that the work for peace and for peaceful resolution “also applies to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as to everyone conflicts”.

Grille also stressed that “at the continental level, there are also notable discrepancies” between the National Party and the Frente Amplio, while the National Party aligns itself with the United States while the Frente Amplio bets on the emerging multipolar world and the defense of peace as the greatest guarantee for the peoples. For this reason, “while the current government condemns certain countries in the name of human rights, it avoids pronouncing on governments that have carried out coups d’état or persecute opponents, as happened when it briefly recognized the de facto government in Bolivia and Peru,” said the journalist.

Screening in BRICS

For Pablo Álvarez, in the face of a victory for the Frente Amplio, Uruguay’s projection towards the BRICS “will undoubtedly be on the table in the near future, especially because of the applications for membership that have been made by countries in the region and also because of the rejection that the current government of Argentina had.”

Journalist Grille recalled that “since 2018, during the last presidency of Tabaré Vázquez, Uruguay signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China and joined the Belt and Road Initiative. He has also been a full member for more than five years

of the Asian Investment and Infrastructure Bank and since 2021 it has been a member of the New Development Bank, the bank created by the BRICS led by former Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff. That line of action should continue and deepen.”

In this sense, Grille explained a great difference between the parties that are contesting the second round of elections, “the parties of the right also bet on deepening trade ties with China but encapsulate the relationship to those terms of economic trade exclusively. The Frente Amplio proposes much higher levels of cooperation.”

Links with Argentina and Brazil

Argentina and Brazil represent an important point in foreign policy ties for Uruguay since they are the two main bordering countries. Relations with Argentina have suffered strong tensions due to the Port of Montevideo projects due to its growing importance as a logistics and commercial hub in the South Atlantic; and the Paraná-Paraguay Waterway, one of the main river routes in South America, which connects Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay, facilitating the transport of millions of tons of products, mainly grains and minerals.

Pablo Álvarez said that “for Uruguay, the issue of ‘ports and waterways’ has always been an important issue. The current right-wing government in Uruguay has reached an agreement with Milei’s government on the depth of the Port, a point that Uruguay has been looking for for some time. So regardless of the political view that the governments may have, in the event that the Frente Amplio wins the national government, these issues will have to be discussed, in the interest of both countries.”

For her part, Agustina Alejandro said that the agreement between the Uruguayan government and Argentina was a “great stupidity on the part of the Argentine president and that Lacalle Pou took advantage of it since it is an issue of high national interest.”

“The dialogue between Uruguay and Argentina was stalled for several reasons, related to the Argentine national interest but also due to the lack of negotiators with knowledge of the facts who were on the Uruguayan side. Milei’s ‘sepoyism’ to deliver or make concessions with a ‘friendly’ government like Lacalle Pou’s made Uruguay obtain the 14 meters,” said the member of the Frente Amplio’s international team. However, he also explained that in any case later “it should be reviewed again, but for a matter of brotherhood, based on a negotiation that serves both countries.”

For Grille, “what must prevail in the bond between peoples is the well-being of the peoples, of all peoples. In this framework, we must work on national economic interests and seek their development.”

“It is understandable that the conditions for port development in Argentina are improved, for example, but not at the cost of worsening port development conditions in Uruguay, and vice versa. Is that possible now? It has to be and the conditions of possibility will have to be built. If there is a mediation where economic elites benefit at the cost of sacrificing popular interests, regardless of the shore, then we are not focusing the problem on the people’s well-being.”

“For Uruguay, Brazil today is a central actor for the Frente Amplio, it is a strategic actor in the relations between the Frente Amplio and the Workers’ Party, which are very close political relations and without a doubt the recognition of the Uruguayan left to Lula as a leader, to Lula as president, are very relevant. In that sense, we project the best possible relations with Brazil, but also undoubtedly this one based on Lula’s Brazil,” said the president of CARIFA.

In the face of an eventual victory of the Frente Amplio, Álvarez assured that “mechanisms will be sought so that regional integration, value chains, but also the possibility of direct investment in Uruguay help both the interests of Uruguay and Brazil in the region, because we effectively consider that regional integration is a strategic element and Brazil is a central player in that scenario.”

On November 24, Uruguay is defined between the continuity of the right-wing official project focused on the opening of the country or on changing towards a government with a clear anti-imperialist, Latin Americanist and internationalist route focused on strengthening regional integration in a global context of multipolarity.

*journalist and part of the PIA Global team.