What will determine the dynamics of Türkiye-US relations in Trump’s new term?
What will determine the dynamics of Türkiye-US relations in Trump’s new term?
By Adem Kılıç, political scientist, Türkiye
During Trump’s first term as the US President between 2017 and 2021, Türkiye and the US had disagreements on many issues.
During Trump’s first term, relations between Türkiye and the US were marked by periodic problems, ranging from the crisis over Trump’s letter to President Erdoğan to the Pastor Brunson incident, from the Halkbank case to the protection crisis during his visit to the US.
However, the structural problems that marked the period were the US support for the PKK terrorist organization in Syria and the S-400 with the related F-35 crisis.
Trump’s new presidential term, on the other hand, will go down in history as a new period in which the rivalry between the “US establishment” and Trump will mark the US foreign policy, and this will naturally be reflected in its relations with Türkiye.
However, the two countries’ sharply divergent Syria policy may evolve to a different point in this new period.
This is because the steps Türkiye took against terrorist groups in Syria “despite the US” even at that time have recently taken a much more structural form.
Türkiye’s policy of “drying terrorism at its source” and its ability to act independently, coupled with its achievements in the defense industry, continue to prevent US-backed terrorist extensions from reaching their targets in both Syria and Iraq.
Türkiye is pursuing a determined strategy against the terrorist organization and its extensions, which are trying to establish a so-called “autonomous” structure in Syria with its domestic and national defense industry products and especially drones.
Moreover, Türkiye’s neutral and independent policy in the Russia-Ukraine war, which started after the Trump era, has made Türkiye indispensable in international politics.
In light of these realities, Trump and the world now know that Türkiye has a stronger ability to act against the extensions of the terrorist organization in Syria, which the Pentagon calls “our ground force”, while acting as a “fully independent” country that acts with the understanding of “Türkiye first” with the neutral policies it follows.
The impact of the defense industry sanctions and possible threats such as “ending the economy” that Trump imposed against Türkiye during his first term is now much less than it was then.
How might Trump’s Syria policy take shape?
Trump’s understanding, which was particularly effective in his decision to withdraw the US from Afghanistan, does not seem to have changed at the moment.
In his speeches both before and during the election campaign, Trump promised to “end all wars in the world”.
However, the biggest obstacle to Trump’s promise can be seen as “the US commitment to Israel”.
Unable to implement a “peace plan” against Israel’s disproportionate and genocidal attacks in Gaza, the US had to give the green light to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
But it seems that the Netanyahu administration will not stop with its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.
Especially in the recent period, the Netanyahu government, using Iranian-backed groups as an excuse, has been carrying out more and more airstrikes beyond the occupied Golan Heights in Syria, even in the Syrian capital Damascus.
Although Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to withdraw the American presence from Syria, just as he did in Afghanistan, it is highly likely that he may not be able to realize this wish within the framework of “Israel’s security”.
At this point, Türkiye will step in.
Because Türkiye knows very well that the PKK extensions in the region, which sometimes act under the US flag and sometimes under the Russian flag and have become useful “mine donkeys”, will become “mine donkeys” serving Israel if the US withdraws its support.
This is precisely why President Erdoğan, in his first statement after congratulating Trump, emphasized “a 30 km deep safe zone”.
Since the first day of the Syrian civil war, Türkiye has never given up on this goal and has always made its stance clear against these groups that are allegedly used in the fight against DAESH.
In Trump’s new term, Türkiye will not give up on this determination even if Trump decides to continue supporting this terrorist group for the so-called “security” of Israel in line with the changing conditions, and will implement a wider border operation without hesitation if Trump signals that he will support it.