“Trump providing legitimacy to Al Sharaa”

The visit of Syrian transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa to Washington and his meeting with US President Donald Trump caused great interest globally. It was the first visit of a Syrian Head of State to Washington since decades, brought about some agreements and indications of a major turning point in Middle Eastern politics.

We spoke about this visit and its repercussions with Dr. Fahri Erenel, retired general of the Turkish Armed Forces and an investigator at the Istinye University in Istanbul.

Erenel says that leading to this visit, the US has had its own priorities. “I think one of them here is to conclude these relations between Israel and Syria at least with a ceasefire. Of course, al Sharaa needs to be convinced about this. Sharaa says such a ceasefire can happen, but never an agreement. Because the condition for this is that Israel must withdraw from the Golan Heights, which it unilaterally occupied in 67, and then from those parts, including Mount Hermon. And he even says that an Abraham Accords can never be in question.”

In exchange, Trump offered al Sharaa “legitimacy”, says the expert, in a very hostile environment. “Trump invited him to Washington despite all the suspicion Israel has against the Syrian President, despite all the lobbying of Israeli pressure groups in Washington. On top of it, Trump described him in front of the press as a strong leader. This was a move to provide him legitimacy, because regional countries were thinking that Sharaa’s days were numbered, that he was going to leave office soon.”

Erenel says this was a message also to all Syrian domestic groups, the Alawi, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Druse, that despite US support for them, they should not ignore al Sharaa.

A further step on that was the prolongation of the sanction’s waiver for al Sharaa for 180 days. A lifting of the so-called Caesar Sanctions can only be done by the Congress, but the president extended the exemption from them, opening some opportunities.

“A number of Arab countries were being stopped by these sanctions, which had stopped them from investing in Syria. On the other side, their exemption and the flow of funds will present new problems for Sharaa. There are different armed groups that have zones of influence, and without constitutional order and unity established before, the flow of funds might incite new conflicts among them. Thus, I think that the US will control Sharaa while these funds flow, via its Special Envoy Tom Barrack. In effect, the US is offering Sharaa a kind of mandate government, worse than a protectorate.”

Economic relations with Russia and Iran are not exempted from the sanctions, meanwhile, in other words, they continue to be forbidden – a point Erenel emphasized later in the interview.

Syria joins anti-ISIS Coalition

A major agreement in Washington was Syria’s joining of the global anti-ISIS Coalition. Erenel says with their militants being released day by day, SIS 2.0 may emerge. Besides, he emphasizes that the SDF repeatedly used ISIS as a trump card against the US.

Al Sharaa coming from an Islamist terrorist background, may again gain legitimacy with this step, he says, mentioning that prior to the visit, certain operations against the group were pursued.

But given the lack of personel and arms, the retired general does not expect the Syrian army to conduct major military operations. For him, the major threat for the Damascus government emerges from the radical groups in the north, the Idlib province, and Sharaa joining the coalition may well create tensions among these radical armed groups. Erenel reminds that there were cooperations between ISIS-affiliated groups and Heyet Tahrir al Sham, prior to the fall of Assad. “Some of these HTS elements have integrated into the army, without abandoning their prior thinking”, Erenel adds, warning that foreign fighters, for instance from Xinjiang Uyghur in China might turn Idlib into a new terror camp.

Overall, Erenel considers Syria’s integration into the coalition as a political alliance and orientation. “Limiting distrust in the West is one point. In Washington, Sharaa stated that Russia had great responsibility for how things went bad in Syria. And then, there is Iran. It is obvious that the US tries to create a new triangle here. Previously, the Astana trio was dominant here. Russia, Türkiye and Iran have provided some sort of stability, agreements, an imperfect peace, though they have different ideologies. This is now gone, with the fall of Assad. Now, the US tries to replace that structure with Türkiye, Israel and Syria.” There were according statements from both the US and Israel, adds Erenel.

Iran and Syria

The opponent is obviously Iran. “I don’t think at all that Iran’s influence has diminished in Syria”, says Erenel. “Because Syria owes a very serious debt to Iran. This is an official loan, and it is not just a secret transfer. Sharaa makes statements against Russia, but keeps silent against Iran.”

“Will Hezbollah forces in Lebanon abandon weapons? I think that Hezbollah forces can also intervene quickly and cross into Syria. Al Sjaraa also knows that Hezbollah still has influence in Syria. And Hezbollah means Iran to a large extent.”

“Iran is not defeated at all, maintains its oil income, has signed new military agreements with Russia and China on weapons, and can easily enter into tactical alliances with different groups”, says Erenel, and adds a social factor.

“Back then, Assad made his first trip after long time to Iran, in a period when the people of Damascus were struggling with hunger, and that he borrowed some more money after his meetings with Khamenei. That provided a revival. Otherwise, Syria would have collapsed at that time. Therefore, Syria-Iran relations do have some social, public support, despite that the majority of Syria is Sunni. Iran gained influence in Syria in the past, the country has experience and knowledge on that, and it can regain it today again, with the slightest instability.”

Therefore, says Erenel, is Syria’s joining of the anti-Isis coalition directed against pro-irani forces, and he expects some operations being planned against these.

Form the Turkish perspective, Erenel says that the March-10 memorandum between Al Sharaa and the SDF has not been implemented at all, with the deadline running out end of year. He emphasized that the three foreign ministers of the US, Türkiye and Syria have presented themselves side-by-side in Washington, expecting that a new memorandum may be announced soon.

All in all, the retired general describes a fragile Syria as an object of a number of plans, but still far away from any political stability.