And recent conflicts in West Asia.
And recent conflicts in West Asia.
The proposal of Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is part of the ruling coalition in Türkiye, for a “Türkiye-Russia-China (TRÇ) alliance against the US-Israel evil alliance” has sparked discussions about the possibility and conditions of such an alliance. One wonders how this alliance proposal resonates in the world and especially in Russia. We had an interview with expert Dr. Kamran Gasanov, faculty member at the People’s Friendship University of Russia, on the reflection of this proposal and the current/possible alliances in the world.
Europe has failed to integrate Türkiye into its alliance
Wars are ongoing in Ukraine and the Middle East. What fundamental conflicts gave rise to these wars, and is there a possibility that they could escalate into a global war?
These conflicts are undoubtedly the result of fundamental conflicts. In the case of Ukraine, it is the expansion of NATO and the conflict between Europe’s and the Euro-Atlantic security concept and Russia’s security concept. In the case of the Middle East, it is the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict, one of the longest-running conflicts of our time. Could this turn into a global war? I believe that in the Middle East, if Israel expands its aggression against other neighboring countries, such as Türkiye and Iran, it could at most turn into a regional war. I do not expect a global war there. On the European front, however, a global war is possible because on one side there is the nuclear power Russia, and on the other side there are the nuclear powers Britain, France, and the United States.
What alliances emerged because of these wars? Can we expect new alliances to form in the future?
In the case of the Ukraine conflict, we can talk about an alliance being formed between Europe and Ukraine, and to some extent between the United States and Ukraine. On the other hand, at least under the Trump administration, the alliance between Europe and the US is weakening and becoming less solid. Meanwhile, the UK is trying to establish its own alliances alongside Europe. There is a certain initiative in the UK to return to Europe after Brexit, and at the same time, the UK wants to act independently by forming an alliance consisting of the UK, Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries. They wanted to include Türkiye in this alliance, but this did not succeed. As for the Middle East, Arab countries have formed an alliance as a result of the war in Gaza. Arab countries are currently discussing the creation of a structure to serve as an alternative to NATO, but it is still too early to take practical steps. On the other hand, the alliance between Türkiye, Qatar, and Syria is growing stronger. Thirdly, Israel’s actions are forcing the Islamic and Arab worlds to act more closely together. So, we see constant meetings between Islamic cooperation organizations and the Arab League. The conflicts between Iran and Arab countries, Türkiye and Arab countries, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia are becoming less pronounced, and negativity is now directed more towards Israel. Regarding the emergence of new alliances, I believe that an Arab NATO will emerge in the long term, but what has happened so far is not enough for this alliance to emerge. Because, in my opinion, countries have not yet fully assessed the extent of the Israeli threat. Additionally, one of the consequences of the Ukraine conflict was the establishment of the North Korea-Russia Alliance.
The Condition for Alliance is Türkiye’s Withdrawal from NATO
In Turkiye, Devlet Bahçeli proposed a Turkiye-Russia-China alliance against the US-Israel axis of evil. How was this proposal received in Russia?
I have not yet seen an official response regarding Bahçeli, but I must immediately point out that they approach Bahçeli with some suspicion, because there is a negative attitude in Russia towards the MHP and the Bozkurtlar organization associated with it. The Turan map that Bahçeli recently presented to Erdoğan comes to mind when thinking about such recent negative events. But the idea itself is quite logical and understandable for Russia. Russia is interested in strengthening the Eurasian structure and consolidating the global majority. It is in Russia’s interest for Türkiye to act independently first and foremost, and secondly to move closer to Russia. In my opinion, Türkiye’s attempt to join BRICS and the SCO and Erdoğan’s participation in the meetings of these two organizations are part of this process. However, if this alliance is to exist, it may be less formal, because formalizing this alliance will be difficult as long as Türkiye is a NATO member. Furthermore, there is no military alliance between Russia and China either. Therefore, certain steps need to be taken here. I think such an expectation is higher between Russia and China than between Türkiye and Russia or Türkiye and China.
Under what conditions could this potential alliance exist?
The conditions for this alliance are Türkiye’s withdrawal from NATO and the resolution of all troublesome issues between Russia and Türkiye. This is because there are crisis points such as South Caucasus, Ukraine, and Syria. Until those points of crisis are resolved, forming an alliance is not realistic.
If this alliance becomes a reality, what would be the echoes around the world? How might the US and Israel react?
Any strengthening of unity among countries in the global south runs counter to the US agenda, which seeks to be closer to these countries than they are to each other. It would hinder plans to weaken China and Trump’s proposed rapprochement between Russia and the US against China. If America continues the conflict, this alliance will strengthen Russia, which is not in America’s favor. Trump’s reaction when he said he would impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries is a possible reaction to the potential alliance between Türkiye, China, and Russia. There will be a strong reaction. It is unlikely that Israel will be pleased with this alliance because it strengthens Türkiye, a strategic enemy, and Israel does not look favorably upon this alliance. However, it is unlikely that Israel will take action against Russia, China, and Türkiye at the same time.
If war breaks out, the Turkish army will destroy Israel
Do you foresee the possibility of war between Türkiye and Israel? What would be the consequences?
Türkiye-Israel relations are deteriorating day by day. Israel used to fight Iran, but now it has started fighting Türkiye as well. At least at the level of experts and journalists, we see that the Israelis have allowed attacks not only on Palestine, Iran, and Qatar, but also on Turkish territory. In other words, Türkiye is listed as a threat in official Israeli intelligence documents. And I believe that once the conflict in Palestine ends, if it ends in Israel’s favor, Iran weakens, and Arab countries become powerless, Israel may turn its attention to Türkiye. However, the consequences for Israel will be negative because, as Admiral Cihat Yaycı also said, Türkiye could reach an army of 40 million, and nothing will be left of Israel. Therefore, if Israel decides to engage in such a provocation, it could lose a lot. And I am not sure that America will stand behind Israel. Still, we must also consider the factor of nuclear weapons. I do not dismiss the possibility that Israel could do this. There would be major consequences and destruction for Türkiye. However, this would still not prevent the Turkish army from destroying Israel.
Israel is more important to the US than all other countries combined
What does the current state and outcome of the Israel-Iran war tell us?
The conflict between Israel and Iran showed that Israel took advantage of Iran’s weakness, the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas, and the regime change in Syria to directly strike Iran. I cannot say this was ineffective. After a while, the Iranians also began to admit that their nuclear infrastructure had been damaged. Nevertheless, Iran’s willingness to continue negotiations with the US proves that Israel’s strategy was successful in principle. Iran is currently unable to help the Gaza Strip in any way. Hamas is also practically left without help. As for the consequences, I believe the main outcome for the countries in the region is that Israel will not hesitate to do anything. Netanyahu will establish Greater Israel, and other countries should be on alert about this. It is no longer possible to rely on US support. The US has shown that it will not protect Türkiye, Arab countries, or any other country that believes in US security guarantees when Israel attacks. In other words, for the US, Israel is more important than all other countries combined.