On Bahçeli’s call: Türkiye’s alliance with China and Russia means leaving NATO

By Onur Sinan Güzaltan

Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the government ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), proposed the “Türkiye-Russia-China [TRC] alliance” to counter what he described as the “US–Israel evil coalition”. Surprising to many, Bahçeli’s call stirred a new wave of debate in the country’s alignments and position in the international system.

UWI author, political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was guest to Turkish TV channel Meltem TV to share his views. Güzaltan answered journalist Halil Nebiler’s question.

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Was Bahçeli’s statement a genuine proposal in the face of the threat of hardship and war in the region and the world, or, as some argue, was it meant to give the government more bargaining leverage against the US?

If we look at what’s happening to the north, west, east and south, the picture is clear. The Russia–Ukraine conflict, the political and social crises gripping Europe, the mounting tensions between NATO and Russia… To the south, there’s genocide unfolding in Palestine. That alone shakes the global balance. Israel hasn’t stopped there either—it has also targeted Qatar, a critical hub for global energy and financial capital, and has even attacked Iran. Turning to Asia, Nepal—wedged between China and India—is mired in political and economic turmoil. So what we’re really seeing is a global crisis, reminiscent of the build-up to the First World War, and again before the Second.

Seen in this context, Mr. Bahçeli’s remarks can mean one of two things. The first possibility is that, faced with this reality, he’s calling for a course correction. The second is that it’s a tactical move against the U.S. It’s hard to pin down the intent, because the government has swung back and forth so many times between the Atlantic and Eurasian camps. But one point must be made clear: a “Türkiye–Russia–China alliance,” considering that Türkiye has been part of NATO since 1952, would mean breaking away from more than seventy years of structural alignment. Making such a statement a reality would require revolutionary changes to Türkiye’s entire state and social order. That’s not something that can happen overnight. To truly form an alliance with Russia and China, Türkiye would have to leave NATO—changing not only its military structure, but also its intelligence, cultural, and media systems.

Under current conditions, and with the government’s existing cadres, I don’t believe that’s possible.

Wouldn’t the first steps in that direction be closing down US and NATO facilities that provide intelligence to Israel, like the Kürecik radar station or the Incirlik Air Base? Are such moves conceivable?

Those steps would, in practice, already amount to leaving NATO. That would be a radical break. On top of that, Türkiye’s economy is heavily integrated with the West, making it very fragile. Add to this the deep political divisions at home, the constant clashes between government and opposition. Given all that, can they really take such a step? It’s doubtful. However, if politics were to return to a more cooperative footing between government and opposition, and if serious measures were taken in the economy, then perhaps the ground for such a shift could emerge. But in today’s circumstances, it looks very unlikely.

In situations like this, there’s a comment in Türkiye: “Türkiye has its obligations. Whether the government wants to or not, it has to take certain steps.” Cross-border operations are often cited in this context. Do you agree? Are Türkiye’s obligations what determine its course?

If we look at the global climate today, those obligations have already taken shape. To Türkiye’s north, there has been a heavy war going on for three years between Russia and the West. This isn’t just a Russia–Ukraine war—it’s a Russia–West war. Many NATO soldiers are already on the ground, while Russia is, for example, bringing in troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. China has put its military on display through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Europe is facing a severe political and economic crisis. In Germany, the government is in deep trouble and the AfD has become the leading party. In the UK, there’s both a governmental and a social crisis. To the south, more than 105,000 people have been killed in Gaza. Israel is attacking Lebanon and Syria, and even daring to strike Iran.

Within these circumstances, Türkiye’s obligations are clear. NATO and the U.S. are Israel’s biggest backers. At the same time, the U.S. is also the chief supporter of the terrorist groups operating against Türkiye in northern Syria. In such a setting, it becomes inevitable for Türkiye to question its ties with NATO and the US.

But this is also a matter of cadres, program, and economy. It’s not something that can be brushed aside with day-to-day politics. If they are sincere about it, then corresponding steps must be taken. A healthier climate has to be built in the economy, in society, and in politics. Only then can Türkiye move toward a new position alongside Russia, China, Iran, and other countries in the region.

Türkiye is a major power, but it has to keep its domestic front solid. Otherwise, such moves could have very dangerous consequences.

But on the other hand, we’ve seen Türkiye take surprising steps in its relations with countries like Libya and Egypt—moves that had consequences against the Western bloc. How do you explain those?

Yes, up to now the government has indeed made surprising turns. As you pointed out, in Libya or in its dealings with Egypt, for example. But the question of a Russia–China alliance is a completely different matter. That would mean altering the very foundations of the state. It would require a new order in every sphere—from law to sports, from the arts to the media. Exiting NATO is precisely that. It’s not a tactical adjustment; it would be a fundamental transformation.

Could Iran also be part of this “alliance”?

It should be. Iran can certainly be part of this equation. In fact, Iran can already be seen as part of the Russia–China alignment. In the past, there was the Astana process between Türkiye, Iran, and Russia. A similar mechanism could once again come onto the agenda. And it’s not just Iran—there’s actually a very broad potential for such an alliance across West Asia.

But for that, you need the right program, the right willpower, and the right cadres. Because such a step would come with political, economic, and military costs. You need people who are prepared for that and who can withstand it. Look at Iran—it has lived under embargo since 1979. Russia has faced sweeping sanctions over the past three years. And these countries are building systems to endure that; both their states and societies are finding their own paths forward.

Kissinger’s words come to mind: “To be an enemy of the U.S. can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” What Mr. Bahçeli is saying now are things that some people in Türkiye had already been saying 20 years ago. Those people were faced with accusations, even imprisonment. What was their crime?

Some ideas simply “need their time.” Certain events have to play out so that both society and the state can learn their lessons. For the past 20 years, on issues like Syria, the U.S., the Western alliance, Russia, Asia, and multipolarity, things that some groups had been pointing out long ago are only now being understood. So be it. What matters is that they’re finally being understood, so that we can build our country’s future in the right way.

We’ve talked a lot about grim scenarios. How do we get out of this darkness? As we wrap up our conversation, sing me a song with blooming roses in it.

This is not the first time in history we’ve gone through dark days. Both the world and Türkiye have overcome many difficult turns before. Türkiye and humanity have the capacity and the strength to do so again. This period will be painful, maybe even bloody, but both Türkiye and humanity carry the accumulated experience to overcome it. Let’s keep our spirits high, and together think about how we will get out of this and chart a way forward.