New Diplomatic Balances from Alaska to Shanghai
A Multilateral Transition in an Era of Great Uncertainty
New Diplomatic Balances from Alaska to Shanghai
A Multilateral Transition in an Era of Great Uncertainty
By Yıldıran Acar, Political Scientist
We live in an age of great uncertainty. Hegemonic competition, global injustice, deepening crises, and hybrid threats—when combined with the opportunities provided by new technologies—are making the international arena increasingly unpredictable. Traditional rules and norms are bending under the pressure of power balances, leading states away from seeking security through a centralized model towards more flexible and multilateral alliances. The pains of this multilateral transition manifest in strategies of attrition, regional tensions, and norm erosion. In this context, the strategic choices of states are reshaping not only security maps but also economic and social dynamics.
The Transition to a Multipolar World: Signs and Dynamics
The legitimacy sources of the international order have been eroded. The selective application of laws and norms has accelerated the questioning of the Western-centered singular narrative. Simultaneously, supply chain vulnerabilities, climate-induced migration, and digital competition are pushing the definition of security beyond the military realm, requiring multilayered strategies that encompass economic, environmental, and cyber dimensions. In this new era, alliances are more temporary and issue-specific, with actors forced to position themselves across multiple platforms simultaneously.
Alaska and Washington: Emphasis on Diplomatic Multicentralism
The Alaska summit demonstrated the diminishing capacity of unilateral American power to provide solutions to global issues independently. Without key actors such as Russia, lasting and actionable solutions cannot be produced. This points to the clear limits of U.S. hegemony and indicates that a multipolar world order is becoming an increasingly dominant framework. The Washington meeting made clear that the views the European Union as an increasingly ineffective actor in global affairs. This observation strengthens the need for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy and adopt a more proactive role in multilateral diplomacy. The parallel diplomatic actions in Alaska and Washington show that the current international agenda cannot be explained through a singular perspective; states are now forced to manage multiple networks and spheres of activity concurrently. In this context, a sustainable balance between flexibility and strategic consistency must be established in diplomacy.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was initially established in 1996 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, focusing on border security and economic cooperation. This entity, initially known as the “Shanghai Five,” institutionalized in 2001 with the addition of Uzbekistan, transforming into a broader regional cooperation mechanism. The organization significantly expanded its geographical and political scope with the full membership of India and Pakistan at the 2017 Astana Summit. Subsequently, Iran’s membership at the 2021 Dushanbe Summit and Belarus’ anticipated membership at the 2024 Astana Summit will bring the total number of SCO members to 10. Mongolia holds observer status, while Afghanistan was listed as an observer but has not been able to maintain an active status since September 2021. The organization has also established “dialogue partnership” relations with 14 countries, including Turkey. The strategic significance of the SCO is supported by geographical and demographic indicators: the total land area of its member states covers a significant portion of the Eurasian continent; the organization represents about 40% of the global population and approximately 30% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This scale not only makes the SCO an influential actor in regional security but also in economic and geopolitical balances. The expansion of memberships and dialogue partnerships illustrates the increasing importance of the SCO in both regional cooperation and the formation of a multipolar international order. For actors like Turkey, the dialogue channels established with the SCO offer both strategic opportunities and risks in areas such as infrastructure and energy projects, the development of transit corridors, and security cooperation.
The 25th Heads of State Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: New Impacts on Global Security and Diplomacy
The 25th Heads of State Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which began in China, reinforces its potential to create direct global influence, moving beyond its role as a regional cooperation platform. What makes this summit extraordinary is not only the weighty issues on its agenda—such as the Ukraine War and security guarantees—but also the simultaneous diplomatic movements that have unfolded alongside it.
The meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, held in a context distant from the West, laid the groundwork for reshaping global security issues. This meeting, conducted without the participation of European Union (EU) leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, signals the diminishing role of the EU in global diplomacy and the shift towards strategic calculations made by the U.S. and Russia, excluding Europe. Following this, peace talks in Washington with the participation of NATO, the EU, and Ukrainian representatives reflected Trump’s active mediation efforts, further highlighting the EU’s increasingly passive role in this process.
Another key issue is the leasing of the Zangezur Corridor to the U.S. for 99 years, which emerges as not only a regional security matter but also a sign of how major powers in Asia are influencing strategic cooperation.
Furthermore, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in this summit, after a long absence, symbolizes India’s re-emerging role in global politics. India’s involvement can be interpreted as an expression of strengthening its strategic relations with China and positioning itself as an active player in the construction of a multipolar order in Asia. Moreover, Trump’s tax increase and embargo on India stands as a critical development in reshaping global economic balances and plays a significant role in the background of this summit. All these dynamics transform the Shanghai Summit from a regular diplomatic meeting into a platform capable of directly influencing global power balances.
Ultimately, the 25th Heads of State Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization marks the beginning of a period in which not only regional security issues, but also global diplomatic and economic relations are being reshaped. The strategic moves reflected in the summit can be considered a crucial diplomatic turning point that will determine the future course of global power dynamics, starting from Asia.