The connection between Cyprus and Crimea.
The connection between Cyprus and Crimea.
Israel expands its military presence in Cyprus.
Israel has taken a series of strategic steps under agreements that also involve the US and Greece. Using the pretext of protecting the exclusive economic zone declared by the Greek Administration of Southern Cyprus, Israel has launched joint naval patrols and deployed its advanced Barak MX air defense system to Cyprus.
Tel Aviv also aims to turn Cyprus into a cybersecurity shield. Unit 8200, the Israeli Defense Forces’ elite cyber intelligence division, established a cybersecurity center on the island, which became operational in the first half of 2025.
UWI author, historian and political scientist Associate Professor Mehmet Perinçek, shared his assessment of this development with us.
Israel’s encirclement plan
We can clearly see that Israel is trying to push forward an encirclement plan targeting not only Iran and Türkiye, but Eurasia as a whole. Within this plan, Syria and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) have become the front lines.
Israel is deploying air defense systems on the Island, taking control of airports of the Greek Administration of Southern Cyprus (GASC), and Israelis are acquiring large amounts of land both in the south and in the north. Some even say that Israel treats GASC as its playground.
Israel’s intervention in TRNC?
Of course, Israel’s policy towards the Island is not limited to TRNC but aims to encircle Türkiye. Israeli media outlets have already begun discussing possible intervention scenarios in TRNC.
If that’s the case, if the TRNC has become a frontline and if Israel now regards the Cyprus question as its own matter, then Türkiye must place the international recognition of the TRNC at the very top of its agenda. It must be systematic, determined, and be backed by an accurate strategy.
Crimea, TRNC and Abkhazia: Reciprocal recognition
At the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea Conference held in Istanbul in July 2025, (https://uwidata.com/38345-eastern-mediterranean-black-sea-conference-2025-final-declaration/) the final declaration adopted a clear and realistic strategy. It included recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, recognition of the sovereignty of the TRNC, and recognition of Abkhazia’s sovereignty. In numerous meetings I held, the Russian side confirmed this position as well. Moscow is ready to recognize the TRNC if Türkiye officially recognizes Crimea as Russian territory.
Trump has long argued that Crimea cannot be taken back from Russia. This is even increasingly acknowledged even by Ukraine itself and by the warmongers in Europe.
Time is short
Türkiye must act quickly. Otherwise, any proposal about TRNC and Crimea will lose its significance.
If we are serious about resisting Israel’s plans for Cyprus, the very first step must be prioritizing international recognition of the TRNC. And the most realistic way forward is to address the issues of Crimea and Cyprus together. In this context, the issues of Blue Homeland and Libya will continue to carry great importance in the coming period.
Türkiye must also draw lessons from the Syrian issue. Confronting Israel cannot be achieved together with a hostile policy toward Iran.
It has become clear that Damascus cannot win Israel over by playing the Iran-hostility card, by saying to Israel “We have common enemies. We must work together to ensure the region’s security”.
Counterweight: Defense industry, Eurasian ties and home front
For both the security of the TRNC and the unity of Syria, it is essential to build strong ties with Eurasian countries, above all Russia and Iran, as well as with the Turkic world. That means to forge a counterweight strong enough to balance the threat.
Also, it is critical to develop defense industry alternatives that are not dependent on NATO and the US. The S-400s are a key example. Possessing the S-400 system is of vital importance for neutralizing the Israeli threat over Cyprus.
Equally important is maintaining the home front strong. When Israel attacked Iran, it didn’t rely solely on bombs, it also tried to weaken the country from within, even regime change. As Türkiye faces Israel over the TRNC, what will thwart Israel’s plans is not just weapons, defense technology, or international policy, but also keeping the home front resilient and unshaken.