Conclusions in the aftermath of the Iran-Israel War.
Conclusions in the aftermath of the Iran-Israel War.
The Iran-Israel war and the use of NATO bases in Türkiye to provide intelligence assistance to Israel have once again brought Türkiye’s NATO–US ties and US–Israel relations back into focus.
We asked Prof. Dr. Atakan Hatipoğlu, faculty member at Aydın Adnan Menderes University of Türkiye, two questions:
What does Türkiye’s NATO membership mean in the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war? And how should we interpret Trump’s policy on Israel?
Potential enemies
President Erdoğan recently said that Türkiye’s defense capacity will soon reach the level of a great deterrent and that no one will even think of attacking Türkiye. This is not just a grandstanding statement; the Turkish state sees that some threats can drag us into a conflict after a while. But the key is to be proactive. That is, destroying the support that the potential enemy hopes to rely on starting from today.
Contradiction between NATO’s and Türkiye’s security concepts
For example, a Türkiye that is still a NATO member, that has opened space for American military power on its territory under the name of “NATO bases”. Ankara hopes for prosperity through debt strategy based on hot money, thus remaining fragile to economic interventions. Türkiye also tolerates the existence of YPG/PYD across its borders that is encouraged by the US and Israel not to lay down arms, strengthens hopes of the ones hostile to Türkiye that its capacity for resistance can be weakened.
China and Russia are Türkiye’s friends, not enemies. Türkiye sees no threats from them. So there is a contradiction between NATO’s security concept and Türkiye’s national security concept. This means that Türkiye is heading towards a moment of decision, whether it be conscious or not.
A determinant beyond Trump and individual countries
When we look at the issue from a conflict of systems perspective, it is possible to understand why the attack on Iran was immediately embraced by the US. President Trump even went to the extent of supporting Israel at the expense of contradicting the line and discourse that brought him to power.
MAGA actually created an expectation that the Trump administration would focus more on the US’s domestic issues. However, the fact that the system has to protect and maintain itself is a determinant that goes beyond Trump and individual leaders. Actually, this is also what determines the course and nature of the ongoing dispute within the US. The security of the system transcends the subjective security expectations of the individual countries within the system, even the president of the US, as I said.
Recall Kennedy
Recall that President Kennedy’s attempt to reduce the nuclear capability marked the end of his presidency in the process of détente with the Soviet Union. In those years, the strength of the American economy was based on the military-industrial complex. The ones that were pulling the strings of the economy saw Kennedy’s attempt as a threat. They eliminated President Kennedy and guaranteed that US-Soviet relations would be shaped by a permanent threat perception. Today, if President Trump wants to live, he has no choice but to surrender to the necessities for the system’s security.