Reports have emerged suggesting that Russia and China started delivering weapons to Iran.
Reports have emerged suggesting that Russia and China started delivering weapons to Iran.
By Mohammed Sabreen, from Cairo / Egypt
“What will happen now?” is the question being asked most urgently at the present time. There is no escape from Iran’s aggressive escalation in the face of Israeli aggression, given the risks of regional escalation, the current war spiraling out of control, and the involvement of the United States and the West in the war. There is a broad consensus that we are heading toward escalation before efforts to stop the war take effect. At the moment, the fighting between Israel and Iran appears to be limited to the two countries. At the United Nations and elsewhere, there have been numerous calls for restraint. But what if these calls fall on deaf ears? What if the fighting escalates and expands? How and with what intensity will Iran respond? How much restraint, if any, can the United States exercise against Israel? Much will depend on the answers to these two questions. The following is an attempt to examine the possible scenarios for a war without borders.
What will happen now?
Now, things are not going as the occupation leaders envisioned, and just as Netanyahu’s aggression in Gaza and Lebanon failed to succeed, it seems unlikely to succeed now.
Israel’s current aggression was intended to undermine Trump’s recent diplomatic efforts to restore something resembling the original nuclear agreement with Iran, and we will see what the results of the bombing will be at the end of the war. There is now a growing conviction that Israel’s attacks could accelerate Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, as its leaders will increasingly believe that this aggression demonstrates the country’s need for a nuclear deterrent. Furthermore, Iranians are patriots, and foreign bombing could rally people around their banner. There are even fears that the war could ignite a nuclear arms race in the region.
Nicholas Christopher, writing in the New York Times, warns the US administration, “We could witness a cycle of escalation leading to a regional war that no one wants, and American forces and embassies will be at risk.” Abdulrahman Al-Rashed believes that what has been achieved so far is a “half-victory” for both sides. In his opinion, this is not enough for either Israel or Iran. Many fear that Netanyahu’s aggression against Iran could lead to another war in the Middle East. The challenge facing President Trump will be to protect American forces in the region and stay out of this chaos. Today, Trump faces the consequences of acquiescing to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu justified his recent military campaign by saying that Iran posed a “clear and present danger.” With strong support from Netanyahu, Trump withdrew in 2018 from the nuclear agreement reached by President Barack Obama, which largely contained Iran’s nuclear program. Trump apparently expected Iran to come roaring back and make concessions. Instead, Iran accelerated its uranium enrichment. A former Israeli security official described the decision to cancel the deal in 2018 as a “catastrophe,” while another said it was a “historic mistake.” Now that the confrontation has erupted, all that remains are questions. The beginning is: Can the war be stopped in its first week? Israeli sources say they achieved immediate success in dismantling Iran’s defense systems, missiles, and command. However, Iran’s strategic capabilities remain, as not all facilities have been destroyed. Al-Rashed asks: Will each side be satisfied with half a victory, stopping the war, and returning to nuclear negotiations? Tehran may be willing to do this until the destruction process stops, while the Israelis still don’t seem satisfied with the results and want to “complete the mission” to prevent Iran from threatening them for the next twenty years. On the other hand, another question is whether Iran will target US forces in Iraq, Bahrain, or anywhere else in the Middle East, and to what extent. The danger is that we will witness a cycle of escalation leading to a regional war that no one wants. US forces and embassies will be at risk, and the best way Trump can protect them is to stay out of this conflict and try to revive the nuclear agreement. Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, warned that Netanyahu has engaged in “a reckless escalation that could ignite regional violence,” and many seem to be right. Trump has been wary of getting involved in foreign wars, and let’s hope he shows restraint this time instead of engaging in a conflict with Iran.
Different Goals
While the war between Israel and Iran intensifies, another war is raging between American weapons on one side and Russian and Iranian weapons on the other. This comes at a time when some reports indicate that Chinese weapons have entered the battlefield. Experts are assessing the outcome of the current battle between Iranian missiles and drones, versus the Israeli Air Force, the pride of American industry, the F-35 stealth aircraft, and the Iron Dome air defense systems. Military experts said that Israel’s efforts are focused on destroying air defense systems, missile platforms, and their warehouses in Iran. However, it faces the reality that Iran manufactures its own ballistic and hypersonic missiles, air defense missiles, and radars. Therefore, it is replacing its damaged air defenses and returning them to operation, as is evident from the interceptions taking place in more than one area. Meanwhile, Iran is working to destroy the Iron Dome batteries in the occupied entity. It has destroyed the American THAAD missile batteries, which protect the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and a number of other irreplaceable batteries because they are imported, like the Patriot. Rafael factories were heavily targeted and may have been taken out of service. They supply the occupation army with locally manufactured Iron Dome missiles, while America’s supply capacity is limited. Therefore, the number of missiles penetrating Israeli air defenses appears to be increasing from wave to wave, while shelters and fortified rooms are beginning to become a burden, with dozens trapped under the rubble of buildings in fortified rooms.
Russia Supports Iran with S-400 System
A report by the Turkish Defense Industry website revealed that the number of S-400 air defense systems Russia has sent to Iran remains a mystery, and the areas where the systems will be deployed are also unknown.
Meanwhile, the New York Times recently reported that Russia has begun sending S-400 air defense systems to Iran at Tehran’s request. Iranian media sources confirmed this news, which comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel following the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. In addition to media sources, a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also reported that the S-400 Triumph high-altitude air defense system ordered by Russia had arrived in Iran. In addition to the S-400 air defense system, it was reported on August 5 that Russia had also sent GT-01 Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems to Iran. Military analysts confirm that the Iranian military has taken steps to acquire these two systems to counter Israeli missile and air strikes. In addition to the S-300PMU-2 systems currently in active service and purchased in 2016, the Iranian Air Defense Forces’ inventory includes the 9K37 BUK and 9K330 TOR systems.
S400 Triumph High-Altitude Air Defense System
The S-400 air defense system is an air defense system developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau in the mid-1980s, immediately following the introduction of the S-300 system in 1979. The most significant difference between the S-400 and the S-300 is that it can track more targets simultaneously and has advanced electronic countermeasures.
In September 2017, Türkiye signed a $2.5 billion agreement with the Russian Federation to purchase two squadrons (four batteries) of S-400 air defense systems (HSS) “to meet urgent needs.” Under this agreement, Türkiye became the first NATO member state to acquire the S-400 system from Russia.
Parts of the first S-400 fleet, valued at $1.3 billion, were delivered to the Turkish Air Force as of July 2019. The second S-400 fleet, also known as the second batch, has yet to be delivered. Under the agreement, the Russian Federation will undertake the transfer of technology to Türkiye during the delivery of the second fleet of S-400 systems.
Conditions for US Involvement
A diplomatic source defined the conditions for US involvement in a war against Iran as conditions of internal legitimacy and near-consensus within the US, because the decision to go to war would entail a heavy price. He believes that the first scenario is the targeting of US bases and interests, and the second scenario is the imminent and certain defeat of Israel. He says that Iran appears to be aware of this, as it avoids including US bases in the target bank, despite describing the Israeli war as an American-Israeli war and despite its previous warnings that it would target US bases if it were subjected to Israeli aggression. Iran links the targeting of US bases to the US initiative to engage in the war, and adds two cards of strength and deterrence, should this occur, that would push America to reconsider its calculations before getting involved: the possibility of Iran declaring its possession of a nuclear weapon, and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and other waterways, causing a major global energy crisis.
If the United States Gets Involved
Despite US denials, Iran clearly believes that US forces supported—at least tacitly—the Israeli attacks. Iran may resort to striking American targets across the Middle East, such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the region. Although Iranian-backed forces, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have been significantly reduced in strength, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq remain armed and present.
The United States anticipated the possibility of such attacks and withdrew some of its personnel as a precaution. In its public messages, Washington has strongly warned Iran of the consequences of any attack on American targets.
But what if an American citizen were killed in Tel Aviv, for example, or elsewhere?
Donald Trump may find himself forced to act, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of seeking to draw the United States into his fight against Iran.
Military analysts say that only the United States possesses the bombers and bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating the deepest Iranian nuclear facilities, especially the Fordow facility.
Trump has promised his Make America Great Again supporters that he will not fight any more “wars” in the Middle East. However, many Republicans support the Israeli government and its view that the time has come to seek regime change in Tehran.
But if the United States becomes an active party to the fighting, it would be a massive escalation with potentially long-lasting and devastating consequences.
Gulf States Involvement
If Iran fails to damage military targets and other well-defended sites inside Israel, it may resort to directing its missiles at more vulnerable targets in the Gulf region, particularly those countries that Iran believes have aided and supported its enemies over the years.
There are numerous energy and infrastructure targets in the region. Recall that Iran was accused of bombing Saudi oil fields in 2019, and its Houthi militias targeted targets in the UAE in 2022.
Since then, relations have witnessed a degree of reconciliation between Iran and some countries in the region.
However, these countries host US air bases, some of which—unofficially—helped defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack last year.
If the Gulf region is attacked, they, in turn, may call for US warplanes to intervene to defend them, in addition to defending Israel.
Israel’s Failure
What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran’s nuclear facilities are extremely deep and well-protected? What if the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—the nuclear fuel that’s only a short step away from weapons-grade enrichment, enough to make about ten nuclear bombs—were not destroyed?
It is believed that this uranium may be hidden in deep, secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but there are no bombs capable of destroying Iranian knowledge and expertise.
What if the Israeli attack convinces the Iranian leadership that the only way to deter further attacks is to accelerate the acquisition of a nuclear capability?
What if the new military leaders at the decision-making table are more reckless and less cautious than their slain predecessors?
At a minimum, this could force Israel to launch further attacks, potentially entrenching the region in a continuous cycle of strikes and counterstrikes. The Israelis have a harsh term for this strategy: “mowing the lawn.”
Global Economic Shock
Oil prices are already rising sharply.
What if Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting oil flows?
What if, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis in Yemen intensify their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea? They are Iran’s last remaining proxy allies, with a history of unpredictable behavior and a willingness to take high risks.
Many countries around the world are already suffering from a cost-of-living crisis, and rising oil prices will increase inflation in a global economic system already suffering from the burdens of the tariff war launched by Trump.
Let’s not forget that the biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will see billions of dollars flow into the Kremlin’s coffers to finance his war against Ukraine.
It remains clear that the continuation of the war will not be in the interest of any party, and that the entire region is not prepared to withstand a major war, especially after the aggression on Gaza sparked outrage in the Arab street. What increases concerns is that the immediate repercussions of this conflict are already evident in the closure of airspaces in five countries and the disruption of economic activity. The Arabian Gulf is a vital oil artery for the world, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which is expected if the escalation continues—could deprive global markets of approximately 60% of supplies. This is in addition to the possibility of direct attacks on oil and energy facilities, threatening a global economic crisis.
It is well known that approximately 20% of the world’s oil and a significant portion of its natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe imports oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf states, a significant portion of which passes through the strait. If Iran were to prevent this, global oil prices would rise significantly, and Europe could face energy shortages, especially in fuel-dependent countries in the Middle East.
According to European estimates, rising oil and energy prices in general would lead to increased inflation and the cessation of industrial operations throughout Europe, and would also impact transportation and agriculture.
The Fall of the Iranian Regime
And what if Israel succeeds in achieving its long-term goal of toppling the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?
Netanyahu claims his primary goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but in his statement on Friday he made clear that his broader objective includes regime change.
He told the “proud Iranian people” that his attack “paves the way for your freedom” from what he described as an “evil and oppressive regime.”
The overthrow of the Iranian government may resonate positively with some parties in the region, especially some Israelis. But what vacuum might it leave? What unforeseen consequences might it have? What would the internal conflict within Iran look like?
Many still remember what happened in Iraq and Libya when the strong central government was overthrown. Much will therefore depend on how this war develops in the coming days.
There is no escape from stopping the war
At the same time, Arab elites and public opinion are increasingly convinced that Israel is seeking to impose its presence as an unstoppable, hegemonic power. Experts warn that if Israel succeeds in achieving a direct victory over Iran—with Western support—it will gain the upper hand in the region, which is dangerous.
On the other hand, Israel makes no secret of its ambitions for regional hegemony and boasts of its ability to use force without restraint. This would expose other countries in the region to a fate similar to that desired for Iran, amidst Israeli political discourse that considers some countries in the region as entities subject to fragmentation and displacement. This is evident in its talk of dividing Syria, considering Jordan an alternative homeland for the Palestinians, and attempts to displace the population of Gaza to neighboring countries. Turkish President Erdoğan also spoke of Israel’s ambitions for Turkish territory, its support for the establishment of a Kurdistan state, and the fragmentation of four countries: Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Türkiye. Given all of the above, the risks appear to be great, no longer imaginary but a real reality that will force several parties to rescue the region from the brink of the abyss.