What will come out of the peace talks in Istanbul?

Following Trump’s reelection, Washington and Moscow initiated contacts aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine. Trump’s team worked not only with the Russian side but also engaged in talks with both Europe and Ukraine.

From the Munich Security Conference to Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, from meetings in Europe to gatherings held in Ukraine, numerous initiatives were undertaken, but none yielded tangible results. Whether with soft or hardline approaches, Trump couldn’t impose his terms on Europe’s hawks and the Kyiv government.

In parallel with this process, Europe launched intensive efforts to develop a new security system independent of the US. Türkiye’s highest-level officials both publicly declared its intention to take an active role in this system which directly targets Russia and continued to “hold an umbrella” over Ukraine.

Naturally, these developments did not serve to bring Kyiv any closer to the negotiating table. On the contrary, they only strengthened its resolve to continue the war.

Putin cornered Kyiv

At this very point, Putin made a smart move. He declared that Russia was ready to sit at the negotiating table unconditionally going even further than Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal and mentioned Istanbul as the possible place for it.

With this move, Putin effectively blocked Ukraine’s strategy of using a ceasefire to regroup and rearm. Thus, Russia cornered Kyiv: either Ukraine would have to agree to negotiate in Istanbul, or it would risk losing Ankara by rejecting its mediation.

Putin, with his call, also drove a wedge between the hawks in Europe who are pushing Ukraine to continue the war and those in Ankara eager to include Türkiye in the new European security system.

In this way, Moscow threw a wrench into the plans of the warmongers and forced Kyiv to sit down at the negotiation table in Istanbul.

Peace is not that close just yet

Of course, this is a positive development for peace. It has even begun to yield its first results with the prisoner exchange. However, we can foresee that the peace process will not reach a conclusion as fast as Trump initially promised.

European hawks and Trump

Firstly, the pro-war factions are doing everything they can. In another article, we discussed Europe’s rearmament process and how the continuity of the war in Ukraine is essential to this rearmament.

Clearly, Europe’s hawks will continue their provocations. Indeed, it was the British who sabotaged the Istanbul talks in 2022. Boris Johnson’s visit to Kyiv made Ukraine walk away from the peace talks, which were close to producing results and had already yielded partial agreements. We are seeing similar efforts today.

Moreover, these European hawks have not completely given up hope of steering the US back toward Biden’s approach. Their insistence on prolonging the war in Ukraine and stalling for time stems partly from this hope. There are many in Europe who are counting on renewed tensions between Moscow and Washington, in case Trump and Putin can’t ultimately reach an agreement, if the US can’t fully satisfy Russia.

Meanwhile, in a year and a half, the US will hold Senate elections. Trump’s push for tariffs has failed to produce results, creating turmoil at home. These elections could turn Trump into a lame duck. If that happens, it could once again open the door for Europe’s warmongers to reassert themselves on the Ukraine issue. In short, the European hawks won’t give up easily.

No war, no Kyiv regime

Second, the survival of the Kyiv government is directly tied to the continuation of the war. Especially for Zelenskyy and his inner circle. Just think: if the war were to end now, Ukraine would be left devastated, having suffered heavy human and territorial losses. This would amount to a major defeat. On top of that, the Kyiv leadership has grown rich from the war. Trump and his team have openly said that aids to Ukraine actually went to corruption. If the war ends under these circumstances, it could bring some very unpleasant surprises for Zelenskyy and his entourage. It is a matter of life and death, not for their country, but them.

Russia is preparing for an offensive in summer

At the very least, it’s certain this summer the war will continue. Trump might completely withdraw from the process and say, “You’re on your own now”. He might stop sending weapons to Ukraine but continue to sell them through Europe. In that scenario, the war would only end if one side achieves a clear victory on the battlefield.

Russia is aware of this. It may launch a large-scale offensive in summer. Moscow wants further advances built on what it has gained so far. After all, many of the territories it has formally incorporated into the Russian Federation through constitutional amendments are still under Ukrainian control.

On the Ukrainian side, there are those who recognize Russia’s upper hand. For example, Ukraine’s former Chief of General Staff, now Ambassador to London, Valeriy Zaluzhny, said that the country should not expect a miracle that would return it to its 1991 or even to its 2022 borders.

Alternatives to Zelenskyy

Naturally, such statements are also tied to the power struggle within Ukraine. Zelenskyy has exhausted all of his political capital and may have no choice but to compromise under pressure from Trump.  Alternatives are being considered to replace him. One of them is Zaluzhny himself. Another is former President Petro Poroshenko. Europe’s hawks, primarily the UK, are looking for fresh blood for carrying on the war.

Europe arms itself, it drifts toward dictatorship

Of course, there are also forces in Europe that want the war to end. Some of them are even close to get the power in several countries. However, these parties are facing outrageous conspiracies and undemocratic practices. We are seeing this in Germany, France, Romania, and Austria.

As Europe rearms itself and sinks deeper into an economic crisis caused by the war, it is simultaneously sliding into dictatorship.

How to achieve peace?

So, how will peace come to Ukraine? At this point, forces around the world that really want peace must begin to act together. If enough weight can be placed on the side of peace, and if the Atlantic powers are no longer able to threaten Russia, and more broadly all of Eurasia, then Europe’s hawks can’t persist in their current stance, and Trump gets a stronger hand to reach an agreement with Moscow.

The role Türkiye must play

Türkiye has responsibilities as well, and these are directly tied to its own interests. Because in order to neutralize the threats Türkiye faces (link), the plans of the Atlantic in Ukraine must be disrupted.

Yes, Türkiye hosted the peace negotiations. But it can do more. Türkiye’s mediation will only serve for peace and its own interests if it manages to diminish the influence of the European hawks over Ukraine. If the warmongers can be kept out of the process, only then can Türkiye play a truly meaningful role.

But first, it’s necessary to abandon the Atlantic-aligned foreign policy path that has been followed, especially since the recent presidential election in May 2023. This includes stepping back from holding an “umbrella” over Ukraine and from trying to have a role within the European security system.