Türkiye: Rising power in an era of crises with an effective neutrality strategy

By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist

The world is going through a transition period in which the global order is now recognized as multipolar and the hegemony of the West, including the US, is disappearing.

In this transition period and in the global arena, where numerous crises ranging from the Russian-Ukrainian war to the Israeli-Palestinian war, from tensions in Africa and the Caucasus to the Pakistan-India conflicts, Türkiye has emerged as the guarantor of regional stability and the most effective actor in global diplomatic resolution processes.

In this period, Türkiye has become a power that everyone wants to be an ally both in the field and in diplomacy, thanks to the great steps it has taken in the field of defense industry and the effective neutrality strategy it has implemented.

Reliable mediator with an effective neutrality strategy: Türkiye

Considering its role in almost all recent developments in the global arena, it is clear that the success of Türkiye’s diplomatic and mediation moves is not a one-off initiative.

Putin’s recent reference to Türkiye for new peace talks is also a development that proves this thesis.

As a matter of fact, in addition to its influence in solving many global problems, Türkiye has also achieved successes in this global crisis since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In this process, Türkiye brokered an important grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, allowing millions of tons of grain to reach the world market. Türkiye’s success not only alleviated the global food crisis but also reinforced Türkiye’s role as a credible mediator at a time when the West was unable to establish a dialogue with Russia.

Immediately after this development, Türkiye, through President Erdoğan’s leading diplomacy, concluded the prisoner swap process that many countries, including the United States, had failed to resolve. President Erdoğan’s leading diplomacy led to prisoner swaps between the parties on more than one occasion.

Türkiye was also the first country to bring the parties together for the Istanbul and Antalya talks, which laid the groundwork for the Russia-Ukraine talks that will take place in Türkiye again this week.

The meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Türkiye was the most serious step towards a diplomatic solution to the war, which is now three years old. Both sides have defined and continue to define Turkey as a “neutral and safe country” partner.

Türkiye’s approach in these processes was not the classical “neutrality” model, but rather the “active neutrality” model, which will perhaps enter the international literature as an example from now on.

With this model, Türkiye has achieved a great foreign policy success by displaying an approach that protects its humanitarian, economic, and regional interests while keeping an equal distance from all sides

The country everyone wants to ally with: Türkiye

Türkiye has played and continues to play a role as an effective and reliable partner in different processes: Examples are the Azerbaijan-Armenia talks in the new reality that emerged after the liberation of Karabakh from occupation, the Libyan civil war, the Ethiopia-Somalia crisis in the Horn of Africa and the end of the 11-year civil war in Syria.

On the other hand, in the last five years alone, crises such as the COVID-19 crisis, the European energy crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, the migration waves and the security problems Europe is facing have led to a radical paradigm shift in the policies of all countries. Especially the US, the EU, and the Gulf countries changed stance towards Türkiye, and Türkiye has become a country that everyone wants to be an ally.

Europe has realized that cooperation with Türkiye has become imperative in the energy crisis. The transfer of the Caspian natural gas to Europe via the TANAP and TAP lines and Türkiye’s increased capacity to store Russian gas have transformed Türkiye into an energy corridor for Europe.

In addition, with LNG facilities and new pipeline projects, Türkiye has taken critical steps to diversify its energy supply and reinforced this role with new energy cooperation agreements signed with Hungary and Bulgaria in 2024.

With Trump’s return to the White House, Europe’s growing “security fears” have once again highlighted Türkiye’s growing global influence.

With the second-largest army in NATO and the largest in Europe, Türkiye is a balancing power in the Black Sea and Europe is now more aware of this.

For all these reasons, Türkiye is now seen as an indispensable partner by the US and Europe. Turkey has also become an actor that the Gulf countries want to ally with due to its critical roles in Syria, Libya, and Africa.

Playmaker and balancer: Türkiye

The whole world recognizes the fact that Türkiye has become an actor at the center of global diplomacy, not just a country struggling against the puppet structures on its borders.

In fact, a Türkiye that is strong in the field and effective at the table is becoming an indispensable ally and a playmaker, a country that determines the balances with an approach that transcends classical foreign policy patterns.

As a matter of fact, Türkiye will play a role again this week in the increasingly closed diplomatic space between the US, Russia, and Ukraine and will bring the parties together as a reliable actor in the establishment of peace.

Türkiye is now the first stop not only for those seeking diplomatic solutions, but also for those who want to take any step in the region.

All regional and global actors will feel more obliged to act together with Türkiye from now on.