China expands Egypt’s options.
China expands Egypt’s options.
By Mohamed Sabreen, from Cairo / Egypt
Egypt and China have begun their first joint air maneuvers, and there are reports that Cairo is purchasing advanced Chinese weapons. All of this coincides with Beijing’s massive investments in Egypt. What is the “coded message” from Cairo and Beijing behind the “golden decade” of partnership between the two countries? Is it a special message targeting the United States and Europe?
“Eagles of Civilization 2025″
Amid unprecedented regional and international tensions, the Egyptian and Chinese militaries launched the first-of-its-kind joint air exercises, dubbed “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” with the participation of vehicles, equipment, and multi-role fighter jets. The exercises held at an undisclosed Egyptian military base from mid-April to early May. While “Eagles of Civilization” is the first joint air exercise of its kind between the two countries, the two sides have conducted unscheduled “naval drills” more than once. Some Western experts have noted that Egypt and China are boasting about the joint air exercises.
Egypt Will Cut Off the Long Arm
In light of the joint Egyptian-Chinese maneuvers, which are being held for the first time in Egyptian airspace, and the uproar they have caused, Egyptian analyst Mack Sharqawi said that “Egypt has begun an attempt to diversify its alliances due to ongoing pressure from the United States.” He emphasized that the weapons Egypt could purchase from China are for defensive purposes “to cut off the long arm that will extend over Egypt.” During his participation in the “Daily Debate” hosted by Lauren Wehbe, Sharqawi addressed the advanced weapons China brought to the “Eagles of Civilization 2025” maneuvers, which included “the Chinese early warning aircraft that landed at Beni Suef Airport, capable of detecting up to a range of 500 kilometers, and giant transport aircraft capable of carrying 70 tons of military equipment.”
He emphasized that these are defensive weapons in the event that any party actively attempts to attack Egypt, “so that it knows that the long arm will be cut off.”
Chinese Fighters Over US Fleet in the Mediterranean
Mac Sharqawi emphasized that “what angered Trump and Netanyahu was the flight of Chinese fighters over US warships in the Mediterranean and their approach, from the Israeli border.
On the Israeli side, the maneuvers did not go unnoticed. Eitan Dangot, an Israeli general who previously served as secretary to several Israeli security ministers, raised questions about the timing of these maneuvers and expressed concern about the flight of Chinese pilots near the Israeli border. On the other hand, during his appearance on the program “This Evening,” hosted by Loren Wehbe, Dangot wondered whether “these military maneuvers carry a message with the approaching visit of US President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia and the region.” He emphasized that “mysterious matters are hovering around them.” In his opinion, “these joint maneuvers are pointless, and I am concerned about the flight of Chinese pilots near our borders.” These are the first air maneuvers between Egypt and China in Egyptian airspace, and they are being conducted over a period of ten days. The maneuvers, which began Saturday morning at an Egyptian air base and have already been dubbed “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” include Chinese J-10C fighter jets, a YU-20 aerial refueling aircraft, and a KJ-500 early warning aircraft. “The aircraft participating in the drills represent the main combat assets of the Chinese Air Force,” a Chinese expert told the Global Times.
Complex Calculations with the American Partner
There is no doubt that the comprehensive Egyptian-Chinese partnership is surrounded by “complicated calculations with the American partner,” particularly in the field of military cooperation between Cairo and Beijing, and its impact on the strategic balance in the Middle East.
The year 2024 witnessed an escalation in military cooperation. In August, the Egyptian and Chinese navies conducted a joint maneuver in the Mediterranean Sea, which included training in communications coordination, tactical maneuvering, and refueling. This was the first joint maneuver since 2019. In late August 2024, the Chinese Air Force sent eight aircraft to participate in an air show in Egypt.
At the same time, the most striking development was the spread of rumors about Egypt’s intention to purchase Chinese J-10C fighter jets to replace its aging fleet of F-16s, according to a recent report by the Arab Defense website.
The website attributed to some analysts that this move comes within the framework of Egypt’s efforts to diversify its arms sources and reduce its dependence on the West, especially the United States. Others see this move as a means of pressuring Washington after the freeze on a deal for 20 F-35 fighter jets promised by former US President Donald Trump in 2018. The Chinese fighter jet, which costs between $40 and $50 million, is a more economical option for Egypt.
However, the deal has not been officially confirmed, and there are several reasons for its failure. Most notably, the J-10C is a fourth-generation fighter, while the Egyptian Air Force is seeking fifth-generation fighters. These aircraft also do not provide the air superiority needed to protect Egypt’s gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, nor do they address Egyptian concerns about Ethiopia.
More importantly, according to military experts, purchasing Chinese fighter jets could affect Egypt’s foreign military financing from the United States, which reached $1.3 billion in 2024 and requires US Congressional approval. Given the competition between Washington and Beijing, the United States will not view the introduction of Chinese fighter jets into the Egyptian Air Force favorably. With Trump back in the White House, Cairo may hope to obtain the F-35s it has long sought.
Equal strategic partnership
There are a set of common goals and messages presented by Major General Dr. Sayed Ghoneim—a fellow at the Military Academy for Advanced and Strategic Studies and a visiting professor at NATO and the Military Academy in Brussels—for these maneuvers. The most prominent of these are:
As Cairo’s main ally outside NATO, it is conducting an air maneuver with “America’s rising enemy,” as if equating its strategic partnership with its most important longtime ally with an equally important, promising partner.
Both countries seek to present the maneuver as a milestone in practical military integration, providing a common platform for improving air combat coordination, evaluating equipment in operational conditions, and building institutional familiarity between their forces.
Do the maneuvers carry messages?
Major General Samir Farag, a military expert and former director of the Morale Affairs Department of the Egyptian Army, says that the maneuvers had been planned since the beginning of the year. While he emphasizes that they are not directed at any party currently and are not linked to regional events such as the war in Gaza, he emphasizes that they remain “a message to those concerned.” He explains that their importance stems from the fact that:
• They are a form of “moral deterrence,” demonstrating Egypt’s strength and ability to deter any potential threat.
• They are conducted with fighters from a military school distinct from Western ones.
• They include resupply and logistics skills, capabilities required at the current stage.
• They increase military readiness, especially for potential scenarios in the African interior or the Nile Basin.
Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Samir Ragheb agrees with the previous statement, stating that the maneuvers do not target a specific party. He adds that they reflect a move to rebalance military relations and allow Egypt to test Chinese fighters in a realistic combat environment, in terms of:
• Their maneuverability.
• Their ability to take off and land in the shortest range and corridor.
• The use of surveillance and electronic warfare systems.
• The efficiency of smart armament.
Ragheb believes that China possesses a comparative advantage in modernizing equipment and developing combat tactics, which provides countries cooperating with it with modern and advanced combat experience.
Egypt’s goals in diversifying its military arsenal?
Major General Ghoneim emphasizes that the maneuvers reinforce Egypt’s drive to diversify its arms sources, away from traditional reliance on the United States or Russia, especially with the decline in confidence in them in light of the war in Ukraine and unconditional American support for Israel.
He contrasts China’s flexibility, which is free from political sensitivities and mistrust, with the hesitation of other partners, such as France, which previously succumbed to Israeli pressure that prevented it from supplying Egypt with advanced missiles as part of the Rafale fighter deal.
He believes that the maneuvers provide a realistic opportunity to test Chinese aircraft, in preparation for the possibility of contracting them in the future without political restrictions or undesirable conditions.
This, according to Major General Ghoneim, reinforces Egypt’s broader foreign policy strategy based on non-alignment, allowing it to hedge against over-reliance on any single geopolitical bloc, with the possibility of technology transfer, assembly, and possibly future manufacturing.
Major General Samir Farag picks up on the same thread, explaining that the maneuvers provide Egypt with the opportunity to observe Chinese weapons in action on the training ground. Brigadier General Samir Ragheb agrees with him, noting that joint maneuvers typically serve as a prelude to arms cooperation and military contracts. They allow for close field testing and inspection of weapons specifications, not just through exhibitions, brochures, theoretical presentations, or military attachés.
Chinese Chengdu J-10 Fighter Jets
Regarding the deal for the Chinese multi-role fighter jet, the Chengdu J-10, which Egypt is reportedly considering purchasing—without an official announcement—Major General Farag confirmed that no consultations have taken place regarding it. However, he believes that the maneuvers are exploring the weapons and fighter jets China possesses, should Egypt ever seek them in the future.
Brigadier General Ragheb, meanwhile, believes that these fighters are a strong candidate as a potential alternative to the F-16, as they perform missions similar to the American fighter. Their presence in the current maneuvers may reflect this trend, but this does not mean a final decision has been made to purchase them. He pointed out that his country had previously trained with the French before contracting for the Rafale, and with the Russians on the MiG-29, which is equivalent to the Chinese fighter. He explained that Egypt is seeking a future alternative to the F-16 fighter jets, with their production halted, whether fourth-generation or advanced fourth generation. Consequently, increasing their number in the Egyptian fleet is no longer possible.
In the same context, Major General Ghoneim believes that Egypt seeks to achieve an important military objective from these maneuvers, namely, evaluating the electronic warfare capabilities and sensor fusion systems of the Chinese Chengdu J-10 aircraft, in addition to the strategic lift capabilities of the Chinese Y-20 transport aircraft.
He emphasized that this is of utmost importance in light of Cairo’s efforts to enhance its capabilities for exploration and rapid military deployment. These maneuvers also contribute to enhancing Egypt’s readiness and coordination of joint forces, which is essential given the volatile security environment extending from Libya to the Red Sea corridor and the Horn of Africa.
Experts believe that the air exercises serve objectives beyond the stated goals of “strengthening and exchanging expertise between the two countries’ militaries,” as China seeks to assert its military presence in the Middle East.
The region is experiencing instability with the ongoing war in Gaza and escalating tensions in the Red Sea, while the world is reeling from an economic war following US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on both his country’s adversaries and allies. However, the fiercest were directed against China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, said that the exercises “aim to showcase China’s new ability to deploy its air forces far from its own territory and interact with a key US ally in a region that has long been subject to extensive US dominance.” He added, “Such maneuvers were supposed to be planned a long time ago, to avoid appearing as a response to Trump’s tariff war on China, but their announcement highlights Beijing’s ability to demonstrate its ability to communicate and interact effectively with a key US ally—like Egypt—in a region where the US previously faced no real competition.”
Egypt’s Message Behind the “Golden Decade”
Even before Trump returned to the White House at the beginning of this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged last September to increase China’s support for the African continent with approximately $51 billion in funding over the next three years.
The beginning of 2025 marked the conclusion of what became known as the “Golden Decade,” a ten-year period during which Egypt and China witnessed growth in their bilateral relations.
Since assuming the presidency in 2014, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has visited China eight times, while former President Hosni Mubarak visited the Asian giant six times during his thirty-year rule. In a recent report titled “Beyond the ‘Golden Decade’ of Egypt-China Partnership?”, the Atlantic Council argued that Egyptian-Chinese relations have never witnessed such “engagement” before. The report noted that Egypt’s desire to strengthen ties with China “meets political and economic imperatives.”
China unveils strategic agreement with Egypt
Egypt and China accelerated their relations in January 2024 with a new strategic agreement, stipulating that the two countries continue to deepen mutual strategic trust and strongly support each other in protecting core interests.
The Chinese Embassy in Cairo revealed an agreement with Egypt that could bring about significant strategic, economic, and political change between the two countries.
The embassy announced that China and Egypt reached an important consensus during the Chinese Foreign Minister’s talks in Cairo, which took place in January 2024, noting that the two countries, over the past decade since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, have ushered in a golden age of developmental leaps in bilateral relations.
Supporting Egypt in Protecting Its National Sovereignty
According to the Chinese Embassy, the two countries agreed on an ongoing partnership and an agreement that includes several provisions. The first provision stipulates that the two countries will continue to deepen mutual strategic trust and firmly support each other in safeguarding core interests. China thanked Egypt for its valuable support on issues related to China’s core interests, especially the Taiwan issue, noting that China will continue to strongly support Egypt in protecting its national sovereignty and security and pursuing a successful development path that suits its national conditions.
The second provision of the agreement stipulates that the two countries will work together to build the high-quality Silk Road, achieving mutual benefits and win-win outcomes at a higher level. China expressed its willingness to work with Egypt to implement the comprehensive strategic partnership plan between the two countries for the next five years, deepen practical cooperation in various fields, continue to support Egypt in strengthening its economic and social development, import more high-quality products from Egypt, and encourage more Chinese companies to invest in Egypt. The third clause included strengthening civilizational dialogue, achieving deeper people-to-people exchanges between the two sides, and enhancing cooperation in the fields of culture, youth, research centers, and vocational education. The embassy indicated that China will continue to encourage more Chinese citizens to visit Egypt and experience the charm of its ancient civilization.
The fourth clause of the agreement included the need for the two countries to engage in closer communication and cooperation on regional and international issues.
The Chinese embassy indicated that China looks forward to working with Egypt to lead collective cooperation between China and Arab countries and between China and Africa to a new level, build a model of high-quality South-South cooperation, jointly promote global governance toward building a fair and orderly multipolar world, and promote inclusive economic globalization that benefits all.
An Egyptian Message Through China
Dr. Wael Awad, a journalist specializing in Asian affairs and a distinguished advisor at the Teletoma Foundation for Strategic Studies, believes that Cairo is seeking to send messages to its Western allies through China. Awad added, “This rapprochement represents a clear message to European countries and the United States that Cairo needs independence in its political decisions, and also needs a more significant role from these countries, which are trying to exert pressure on Egypt, whether regarding the situation in Gaza, which could harm Egyptian national interests.”
Awad continued, “Egypt has begun to diversify its resources and strengthen its relations with Asia, which were previously not at the desired level. The partnership between Egypt and Asia must rise to the level of a strategic partnership in the true sense of the word, as Egypt must realize that its natural extension is not only in Europe and Africa, but also in Asia, especially since we are living in the Asian century.”
For decades, Egypt has been one of the United States’ most important allies in the Middle East, but relations with Washington have witnessed considerable tension in recent years. As Egypt seeks to strengthen its relations with China, London-based political researcher Mohamed Kawas believes that these efforts will not occur without “harming Cairo’s relations with the United States and other Western countries.” Kawas added, “Egypt is signaling to its Western allies that it has ample room for maneuver, distancing it from exclusive dependence on any one party and freeing it from pressures that may be exerted on it on this or that issue.”
A “Major Leap” in the Future
There is consensus that Cairo-Beijing relations will witness a major leap in the future, especially after President Sisi’s landmark visit to Beijing last May, where he participated in the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum and the China-Egypt Summit. During the summit, Sisi discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping enhancing cooperation in the fields of information and communications technology, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, food security, finance, and cultural exchange, demonstrating the broad scope of relations between the two countries. Prior to strengthening defense ties, Chinese companies had increased their investments in Egypt, focusing on the Suez Canal Economic Zone, which would become a platform for exporting their products to the world.
The Vice Chairman of the Egyptian-Chinese Business Council, Mustafa Ibrahim, confirmed that between 20 and 30 new Chinese companies are seriously considering expanding into the Egyptian market this year. Recent years have witnessed a significant influx of Chinese investments into Egypt, in light of the trade pressures China is facing, which have prompted its companies to seek expansion opportunities in other countries to maintain their export rates, particularly to Europe and the United States. Beijing sees Egypt as a good alternative to China. It has low-cost labor and a huge domestic market of over 100 million people. It also has trade agreements that allow locally manufactured goods to transit duty-free to markets of 3.5 billion people worldwide.
Chinese investments are currently on the rise, particularly with China’s desire to relocate some small and medium-sized industries to other countries, focusing their operations on higher-value-added industries, particularly technology sectors.
The Egyptian market includes approximately 2,066 Chinese companies with investments exceeding $8 billion, according to estimates from Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Free Zones.
Cooperation between Egypt and China has focused on the economic and trade sectors, particularly in Egyptian ports, where investment deals worth billions have been concluded with Chinese companies in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
According to estimates from Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Free Zones last year, the Egyptian market included approximately 2,066 Chinese companies with investments exceeding $8 billion. At the end of last month, the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry announced that it had signed a contract with the Chinese company Xinfeng to establish an integrated metal industries complex project with investments of $1.65 billion.
Despite the escalating customs war between the two global economic powers, Egypt has so far managed to avoid Trump’s tariffs, as it was among the countries subject to the lowest tariff rates, at 10 percent.
Beijing’s Calculations
In light of this, experts are raising questions about China’s messages behind strengthening its relations with Egypt in light of its first air exercises with Cairo. Many experts agree that Beijing views Egypt as the “grand prize” in the Middle East and an invaluable strategic partner in the competition with America.
Commenting on this, Wael Awad, a journalist specializing in Asian affairs, said that Egypt could be “China’s gateway to Europe.” He added, “The United States considers China its main enemy and main competitor, and it believes that the next war will be against China. Successive White House administrations have emphasized that China is the main competitor to the United States in its economic and military hegemony, if not the enemy.”
Experts believe that Trump’s trade policy could provide Beijing with opportunities to negotiate free trade agreements with other countries and play a pivotal role in any attempts to establish a new system to replace the World Trade Organization. In a recent report, Chatham House, the British Royal Institute of International Affairs, stated that Trump’s “America First” foreign policy strategy could lead to the United States “fully or partially withdrawing from international organizations that have been cornerstones of its global hegemony since the end of World War II.”
China Expands Egypt’s Options
Egyptian elites still see the relationship with China as the best option for the Egyptian state in the face of Western attempts to impose limited options on Cairo. Since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power, the relationship has evolved into a more serious partnership, as China has strengthened its influence in the Middle East and Egypt has emerged as an important partner. However, many Egyptians aspire to deepen the relationship with China to a comprehensive strategic partnership. However, if this dynamic continues over the next decade, China could become an even more influential player in Cairo, further complicating the American diplomatic landscape in the region.