Coalition talks, armaments and Germany’s direction

By Ali Mercan, Frankfurt / Germany

The coalition talks between the Christian Union (CDU-CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) entered an intense phase during the second week of April. The fluctuations in public support reflected in the latest polls have increased pressure on both sides. It is said that the results of the coalition negotiations would be announced during the Easter holiday.

A significant factor influencing the talks is that, despite all counter-propaganda and threats, the nationalist party AfD has caught up with CDU-CSU. AfD is already the leading party in Eastern Germany. Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to pass the electoral threshold due to election interference, but remains to be strong. As in the rest of Europe, the marginalization and obstruction of nationalist parties in Germany have only fueled their rise.

Negotiators from the CDU and SPD met on April 7 to move forward on a coalition agreement. Prime Minister Schwesig stated that it was clear to everyone including the SPD that “business as usual” is no longer possible in Germany. She identified the funding of social systems, investments in the economy and energy prices as key issues. She also said that the SPD is also open to change regarding citizens’ income levels and immigration. Schwesig emphasized that both parties are converging and not contradicting one another. For the SPD, the most important thing is to avoid “empty promises”. In light of AfD’s high polling numbers, Schwesig warned that the situation is “not just an issue for Eastern Germany”. The premiers of the eastern federal states have been saying this for years. Therefore, she added, “what is needed is not a politics that argues, but one that offers solutions”.

CSU General Secretary Martin Huber defended the direction taken in the negotiations on ARD’s program. He stated that they had laid the groundwork for a fundamental policy shift, particularly in the areas of migration and economic policy.

A new debt limit is being adopted through legislative changes for infrastructure investment projects. This is intended to restart the economy and make Germany “crisis-resilient for the future”. Huber spoke of a “massive general package”.

Thorsten Frei, head of the Christian Union parliamentary group, stated, “1good policymaking is essential to breaking the cycle of stagnation, achieving economic growth, and ensuring greater security. This, Frei argued, is the best remedy against the poor public opinion polls he described as “painful for us”.

CDU’s youth organization Junge Union’s, leader Johannes Winkel told Süddeutsche Zeitung that “the CDU should not sign a coalition agreement without a change in policy”. He listed immigration, the economy, and the reduction of bureaucracy as the most important issues.

Main tasks of the incoming coalition decided

More significant than the publicly disclosed coalition negotiations on issues like the economy, immigration, and debt is the fact that key decisions have already been made for the incoming government. These decisions primarily reflect the orientation of the Atlanticist parties. They had already been agreed upon between the CDU, SPD, and the Greens. Rather than being left to the new coalition, these critical matters were decided in advance by the initial minority government and handed over to the incoming administration. This approach was adopted to avoid delays and complications during the voting processes of the new government.

The most important of these decisions are policies targeting Russia and continuing support for Ukraine. By spreading fear of a Russian attack, the goal is to direct investments primarily toward militarization. To create capital for this sector, measures include increasing taxes, reducing social benefits and pension payments, and limiting public spending. This policy has gone so far that even automobile factories are expected to be redirected toward weapons production.

Germany as the leader of the Atlanticist policies

The EU expects Germany to play a leading role in militarization and steps related to long-term strategic planning. Germany and the EU are investing multidimensionally in militarization under the claims of becoming a global power and ensuring its own security independently from the US.

When closely examined, it becomes evident that this militarization also serves as an attempt to escape the economic collapse. Germany is increasingly assigning arm industry a leading role in economy. However, one must not forget: weapons are ultimately produced to be used.

In the past five years, the global arms trade has been largely driven by Western states, particularly European countries. This is the conclusion of the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on the development of imports and exports of heavy weapons. According to the report, global arms trade as a whole declined by 0.6% in the period from 2020 to 2024 compared to the previous five-year span (2015–2019). This decrease is mainly due to a significant drop in arms imports in Asia/Oceania, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

In contrast, the US’s share of global arms imports rose from 1.9% (2015–2019) to 3.1% (2020–2024). European countries recorded an even sharper increase from 11% to 28%. According to SIPRI, this is not solely due to Ukraine’s dramatic militarization, which raised its share in global military equipment imports from 0.1% to 8.8%. The rise in Europe’s share is largely driven by NATO member states in Europe more than doubling their arms imports between 2020 and 2024 compared to the previous five-year period. So following this intensified militarization during the Biden administration, the EU has now embarked on a path to expand its own arms industry.

A future war against Russia

Two major analyses have recently been published by German foreign policy institutions. The first anticipates a war with Russia within the next four to five years. A second, more recent analysis predicts the possibility of a world war within the next decade. These projections are being used to justify Germany’s and EU’s accelerated militarization and arms production.

Many analyses suggest that Germany’s large-scale military equipment investments are a response to the potential threat of a Russian attack. However, in the context of growing transatlantic divergence with Trump’s new term, Germany playing a credible deterrent role against Russia is unrealistic. Therefore, other motives must be here.

Germany’s multi-billion-euro military investment plan is not only presented as a contribution to Ukraine’s armament but is also justified by the claim of establishing “European sovereignty”. According to Bloomberg, citing an interview with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the allocated funds aim to enhance the EU’s military independence in the face of US’s changing attitude.

Also, Friedrich Merz stated during his campaign that he would work to expand Germany’s “deterrence and defense capabilities” and strengthen “national mobility and European sovereignty” as part of a new and expanded National Security Strategy. In a speech at the Körber Foundation, Merz also called for the establishment of a National Security Council and for greater emphasis on foreign and defense policy in German universities. Merz characterized the current global situation as a “breakthrough rupture” going beyond the “turning point” declared by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Germany’s public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk airs detailed reports on a possible Russia-Europe war. These have intensified during the second Trump presidency. (1)

Merz, just hours after the polls closed on February 23, declared that strengthening Europe in a way that achieves “independence” from the United States as soon as possible was now an “absolute priority” for him. Since then, calls for comprehensive independence from the U.S. have rapidly increased. On February 28, immediately following the scandal during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas declared that the “free world” now needed a “new leader”: “It is up to us Europeans to take on this challenge,” she said. Earlier in the week, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) made a brief statement noting that the Trump administration had “quickly destroyed America’s credibility and international reputation.” “Repairing the damage” would take “decades.” (6) “Europe” must now “mobilize its rich resources to replace America as a global leader.” In January, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also demanded that “Europe” position itself independently from the U.S.: “We are a world power.” (2) Tusk added, “But we must also believe in that.”

“Germany must be ready for war under any circumstances”

Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius from SPD has demanded that Germany be made “fit for war”. The head of the Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, warned that “by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian forces could launch an attack on NATO”. NATO is taking this threat seriously: during the “Steadfast Noon” exercise held in October 2024, the alliance tested its defense capabilities, including the use of nuclear weapons. This involved fighter jets capable of carrying US nuclear bombs stationed in Europe.

In mid-March, Gustav Gressel, an expert in military and security for Eastern Europe and a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), asserted in his latest analysis: “Europe may witness a major war next year”. So, he said: “In that case, a US security guarantee under a Trump administration cannot be expected. Germany must, therefore, prepare for conscription, provide special weaponry, and be ready for war at any moment.” (3)

Another similar analysis was published in Atlantic Council: “More and more experts expect a third world war within the next decade. This is based on a survey conducted among 357 experts in international politics by the Scowcroft Strategy and Security Center, an institution of the Atlantic Council in Washington. About 55% of the participants were from the U.S., while the remainder came from approximately 60 countries across all continents. According to the survey, 40.5% of the respondents believe that a world war will begin by 2035 at the latest, but possibly much sooner.” (4)

This kind of discourse gained momentum as Donald Trump was preparing to return to the US presidency. By this, a pre-set agenda was presented to the new administration.

German Rheinmetall expects record growth

Following the German Bundestag’s decision to completely remove the debt limits required for the rearmament of the military, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) has presented concrete proposals for this purpose. According to a plan co-written by DGAP President Thomas Enders, “thousands of fighter jets” will be procured in Europe to establish a “wide-scale drone defense wall.” Additionally, the establishment of a “sovereign satellite constellation” in the Baltic Sea and the creation of “large-scale underwater surveillance” are deemed necessary. The authors of the article also emphasize the significant importance of advancing “autonomous systems and robotics” and “applied artificial intelligence.” For example, to break free from current dependence on the US with the F-35 fighter jets, it is important to insist on “sovereign European supply” within Europe. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the DGAP document also aims for independence from Washington and the development of corresponding “European” potential, which should be “similar” to the US’s capabilities. Germany should act as a “starter” at the European level. (5) Particularly, avoiding devices that the US can control, like the F-35, is crucial to breaking free from dependency. As seen, the arms industry activates many sectors it is connected to.

While examining the EU’s significant, even unlimited, defense budget efforts, Germany’s major arms manufacturer Rheinmetall provides key insights into this understanding. The company, which also manufactures cars, has seen a significant drop in car sales but is recording record-level sales in arms. This year, it is expected that arms sales will increase by 25-30%. Rheinmetall’s outstanding orders rose by 44% last year, reaching a record 55 billion euros. The defense sector accounts for 80% of these sales, while car sales have declined.

Rheinmetall, which has five factories in Germany, provides employment to around 32,000 people. This number will now increase to 40,000. Additionally, the German company operates in Canada, the US, the UK, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Hungary, South Africa, and Australia. Rheinmetall plans to convert two of its automotive factories in Germany in February 2025 to increase weapons production. It is recording record revenue from arms sales, not from car sales.

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger stated, “A period of rearmament has begun in Europe, which will demand more from all of us. As Rheinmetall, this period also offers us unprecedented growth opportunities”. Rheinmetall reports that it is well-prepared to produce these orders and has significantly increased its capacities.

Rheinmetall expects that, with NATO allies allocating 3.5% of their GDP to defense budgets by 2030, the company could generate up to 400 billion euros in revenue. (9)

Germany, at the forefront of the EU’s armament, saw massive protests in Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people opposing it. These protests seem to be just the beginning. Even if the weapons remain in storage, they may one day be deployed. Public opposition could grow.

Sources

1. Deutschlandfunk, 18.12.2024
2. Tusk will EU für Trump rüsten und aufrüsten. orf.at 22.01.2025.
3. Die Welt, İbrahim Naber, 16.03.2025)
4. Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, Paul Kielstra: Global Foresight 2025. atlanticcouncil.org. 
5. DGAP-Präsident Tom Enders veröffentlicht „SPARTA“-Positionspapier zur europäischen Verteidigung. dgap.org.
6. 13.03.20925, www.analizgazetesi.com.tr