Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maria Cernat, President of the Institute for Media Research and Human Rights and faculty member at Titu Maiorescu University, and Hamdi Yılmaz, Editor-in-Chief of “Gazete Balkan” commented.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maria Cernat, President of the Institute for Media Research and Human Rights and faculty member at Titu Maiorescu University, and Hamdi Yılmaz, Editor-in-Chief of “Gazete Balkan” commented.
Romanian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, who is skeptical of NATO and advocates closer relations with Russia, has been denied his right to participate in the elections. The decision taken by the Central Electoral Bureau was subsequently upheld by Romania’s Constitutional Court.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maria Cernat, President of the Institute for Media Research and Human Rights and faculty member at Titu Maiorescu University, together with Hamdi Yılmaz, Editor-in-Chief of “Gazete Balkan”, answered Tolga Dişçi’s questions from Aydınlık Europe, European supplement of Aydınlık newspaper of Türkiye.
We are presenting the interviews translating into English.
How did the events unfold?
Before moving to the interview, we present below the chronology prepared by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maria Cernat.
November 2024: Presidential Election and Initial Results
November 24, 2024: Romania held the first round of its presidential elections. Independent candidate Călin Georgescu unexpectedly secured around 23 percent of the vote, contradicting pre-election polls.
November 28, 2024: The Constitutional Court ordered a full recount of all votes cast in the first round due to allegations of electoral irregularities and possible foreign interference.
December 2024: Annulment of the Elections
December 6, 2024: The Constitutional Court annulled the election results on the grounds of alleged Russian interference, illegal use of digital technologies, and undeclared campaign financing.
December 7, 2024: Tens of thousands of people protested in Bucharest against the annulment, calling it a “coup” and demanding a rerun of the elections.
December 22, 2024: The second Ciolacu cabinet was formed as a minority government, comprising a coalition of the PSD, the National Liberal Party (PNL), the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), and minority parties.
December 27, 2024: President Klaus Iohannis resigned due to political pressure, appointing Senate President Ilie Bolojan as acting president until new elections could be held.
January 2025: Legal Challenges and Preparations for New Elections
January 12, 2025: The European Court of Human Rights rejected Georgescu’s appeal against the annulment, stating that it had no jurisdiction over the matter.
January 27, 2025: The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe published an urgent report analyzing Romania’s situation regarding the annulment of election results by constitutional courts.
February 2025: Criminal Investigations and Ongoing Controversies
February 26, 2025: Călin Georgescu was detained on charges of “incitement to acts against the constitutional order.”
February 28, 2025: Georgescu was released under judicial control, with restrictions imposed on his public appearances and use of social media.
March 2025: Election Preparations and Legal Disputes
March 7, 2025: The Central Electoral Bureau barred Georgescu from participating in the May presidential elections, citing democratic violations and allegations of illegal campaign activities linked to Moscow.
March 10, 2025: Georgescu appealed the decision to the Constitutional Court, which was expected to issue a ruling within 48 hours.
March 11, 2025: Mass protests in support of Georgescu continue in Bucharest.
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Atlantic elites fear the loss of their privileges
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maria Cernat stated that the elites loyal to the Atlantic alliance targeted Georgescu in order not to lose their privileges. Cernat said that Georgescu’s defense of peace in Ukraine made him stand out in the eyes of the Romanian people.
Can you summarise the overall picture before we start? The election process in Romania and the events that preceded it were quite crucial. Could you inform us very briefly about the recent process and the reasons behind?
The worrying situation now comes from the intellectual elites justifying the decision of the Central Electoral Bureau. Essentially, because they consider this candidate undesirable due to his extremist positions and his positive statements regarding Ion Antonescu, a political leader convicted in Romania for war crimes, they argue that this decision is justified. Of course, numerous jurists, including the former president of the Constitutional Court, declare that they find the Central Electoral Bureau’s decision to be “exaggerated.”
At this moment, all we can do is speculate that these Romanian legal institutions have entered an extremely strange area that has not characterized the three decades of Romanian democracy. We have not had such interference in the electoral process. Essentially, what is happening is unprecedented in Romanian democracy. In my opinion, which is nothing more than speculation, the authorities’ decision is a mix of fear of a leader who could prove to be authoritarian, fear that some of the current elites connected to the Euro-Atlantic power centers could lose their privileges, fear of change, and fear of the population’s anger. Certainly, it is very problematic to what extent we can take problematic democratic measures to save democracy. Who are we saving it from? At this moment, it seems to be from the potential voters of Călin Georgescu. How much democracy is left if we follow this course?
Romanians support Georgescu
2What is your opinion on the arrest and political banning of Georgescu? Should citizens with different political views support this process or is it harmful for Romanian democracy?
The arrest of Călin Georgescu has only fueled further anger among his supporters. What started as a small act of perceived injustice has escalated into a larger issue. It became increasingly clear that Romanians were backing Georgescu, and every move made by the authorities seemed to strengthen his supporters’ resolve. In fact, these actions have not only solidified the decisions of his base but have also swayed many undecided voters to join his camp.
I believe that the authorities have a lot of homework to do and many questions they need to answer: what exactly was the role of the PNL in supporting Călin Georgescu in order to undermine the candidate they saw as a potential rival, George Simion? What was, if any, the involvement of Russia in the presidential elections? What is the evidence for the arrest of Călin Georgescu? I believe these are questions that at least some Romanians are still waiting for clarification on.
Romania like a boiling frog
“Europe is now a dictatorship; Romania is under tyranny,” Georgescu said. Do you basically share this idea? Is there a risk of such anti-democratisation in Europe?
Georgescu is a controversial leader in his own way. Many call him a sort of guru because he mixes elements of spirituality with politics and combines them with a rather conservative discourse. I believe we are far from the direct and brutal repression exercised by a dictatorship. To describe the situation in Romania, I would use the metaphor of a frog placed in water with gradually increasing temperature. It remains stunned and ends up dying because it is paralyzed by the incremental rise in temperature.
Precisely because the measures targeted a single candidate whose candidacy was banned, precisely because things seem legal, and precisely because everything happens with the applause of the Romanian intellectual elite, we fail to realize that these measures slowly but surely lead us in a negative direction. The abuses triggered against a leader we don’t sympathize with – I admit, I don’t think I would have voted for him – could also target leaders we do sympathize with, because a precedent has been set.
Public anger on the brink of eruption
Opinion polls were talking about a vote rate of 40-45 per cent. How can someone who is expected to receive this level of public support be prevented from participating in the elections? Do you think this decision can be sustained?
Yes, Călin Georgescu knew very well how to connect with people’s needs. Therefore, yes, I believe he would have garnered a large portion of the votes. It may be risky to assume victory as certain, but he certainly started as the favorite in this electoral race.
Because the authorities and secret services secretly exert significant control, everything seems normal in our country. But all this anger from the population is just waiting for a spark. There is a great sense of dissatisfaction, and I really don’t know how the authorities will be able to calm the angry population in the long term.
Georgescu adopts the Orban model
Georgescu is known to be sceptical about NATO and the ‘Western alliance’ in general. Do you think this played a role in the court’s decision?
Regarding Georgescu’s position on NATO, he stated that he does not want to take Romania out of NATO, but he does want to avoid involvement in the war in Ukraine, advocating for peace and diplomacy. I believe this may have helped him – although I don’t have data, it’s a hypothesis – but I think this stance made him a favorite among Romanians.
At the same time, it positioned him at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to the other candidates. Romania is not only a European country with one of the largest budgets for intelligence services, but it is also one of the most obedient countries when it comes to Brussels. I don’t think Georgescu would have wanted to pull the country out of its current alliances. I believe Viktor Orban from Hungary was his model.
Demonstrations Could Reshape the Government
In his remarks to Aydınlık Europe, Hamdi Yılmaz, Editor-in-Chief of Gazete Balkan, emphasized that the protests in support of Georgescu could have a major impact on Romanian politics. Yılmaz also pointed out that the Romanian state, by opting to exclude Georgescu from the elections, will secure a significant amount of EU funding as a result of this decision.
“As you know, the Central Electoral Board’s decision regarding Călin Georgescu was appealed to the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court subsequently refused to annul the decision. As a result, Georgescu is now barred from participating in the elections scheduled for May 4th. Consequently, street demonstrations led by small groups continue in various locations. In Romania, even protests initiated by small groups hold considerable significance. They can even lead to a change in government.
In May, Poland will also hold elections, which will be highly significant. The European Union does not want to see a scenario in Romania and Poland similar to what transpired in Austria and the Netherlands. For now, it appears that they have taken preemptive action to block potential developments before such a situation could unfold. Meanwhile, Elon Musk and Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister have publicly expressed their support for Georgescu.
The Romanian state chooses the EU
When we analyze these events, we can say that the Romanian state has clearly aligned itself with the EU. I’m explaining the situation strictly from a factual perspective, without delving into the democratic implications. This decision will guarantee Romania a substantial influx of EU funds. Meanwhile, George Simion, the leader of Georgescu’s former party, the Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR), is expected to emerge as the frontrunner in the elections, and polls indicate that he will.
Opposition may unite Against Georgescu
In the first round, I predict that former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, and the current interim President Ilie Bolojan will likely be among the candidates. However, Victor Ponta seems to have the highest chance of advancing to the second round of the elections. By April 3rd, the list of presidential candidates will be finalized.
At that point, Romania may face a situation similar to what unfolded in Austria and the Netherlands—where a ‘far-right’government with closer ties to Russia could come to power. As a result, the other parties will likely unite their efforts around the second-place candidate to prevent such an outcome.”