Brazil: Lula’s moment ahead of the upcoming elections

By Oscar Rotundo

Lula’s government is approaching an electoral challenge amid a hostile environment both at home and abroad. It has lost credibility within its own ranks and is being stalked by a right-wing party cornered by the judiciary.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva assumed the presidency of Brazil for his current term on January 1, 2023, and from day one, he had to face an impeachment uprising led by former President Jair Bolsonaro, which despite the actions of the justice system continues to this day, as demonstrated by the recent far-right demonstration in Copacabana, with a significant turnout.

The government is trying to control inflation and achieve a fiscal surplus, but in pursuit of that policy, it is hesitating in the face of pressure from agribusiness and confronting the tariff policy that Trump will impose on its exports.

Brazil, with the largest economy in the region, one of the founders of the BRICS and one of the top 10 economies in the world, is the second largest supplier of steel and iron to the United States, having exported to this country in 2024, both products for a value of 4.677 billion dollars. Trump’s tariff policy starting in March, with tariffs of 25% on its exports, could harm the country’s finances and the government’s domestic market policy.

The ghost of inflation

In February, consumer prices rose by the most in three years, putting pressure on the government.

Official data showed that prices rose significantly in February, the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Annual inflation accelerated to 5.06%, exceeding the target set by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad of 3%.

Persistent inflation, driven primarily by high food costs, is causing discontent among consumers. Inflation spiked in February due to seasonal and temporary pressures, pushing price increases above the 2025 target.

Housing costs rose significantly in February, driven by rising utility bills as energy subsidies ended, representing the main driver of inflation.

Added to this are increases in education and food prices, generating a significant deterioration in the purchasing power of wages, a situation that generates distrust and frustration among the population and has caused President Lula’s approval rating to plummet, reaching the lowest level in his three terms.

Food inflation is a particularly sensitive issue, affecting household purchasing power. Although the government has implemented measures to contain rising prices through subsidies and temporary controls, the results of these measures have not been sufficient to alleviate the pressure on the most vulnerable households, creating a perception that the government is unable to improve the country’s economic situation.

Samples that worry

By the end of January, a negative evaluation of the government surpassed the positive one for the first time in history. The two most popular polling firms, Datafolia and Ques, point to the fall of Lula’s government based on surveys conducted a couple of weeks ago.

In São Paulo, Lula had a 55% negative rating compared to just 16% positive, as did the states of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, the latter of which was key to his victory in 2022.

The highest disapproval of the Federal government’s management is found in Paraná and Goiás, with 59% and 58%, respectively, and the highest positive rating is found in Pernambuco, with 33%, and in Bahia, with 30%.

We can observe a relationship between the results of the municipal elections held on October 6, 2024, where the center-right significantly prevailed, defeating President Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party (PT) and sparking widespread discontent over the federal government’s policies.

It’s not just about Bolsonaro

On March 26, the First Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice accepted the accusation filed by the Attorney General against former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he accuses of being the leader of the “Green and Yellow Dagger” criminal organization that promoted the attempted overthrow of the institution on January 8, 2023.

The desperate strategy of Bolsonaro, who could face up to 40 years in prison, and his clan to avoid incarceration, has led him to redouble his efforts in street actions, supporting the Mobilization for Amnesty, an amnesty that includes him along with the rest of those implicated.

With the demonstration, Bolsonaro will seek to pressure the parliamentary body and national and international public opinion against possible condemnations and assimilate these actions to the narrative of the lack of freedom in the country and political persecution.

In addition to the street movement, there is an overseas campaign denouncing political “persecution” and a media and legislative operation to pressure Congress to pass an amnesty law.

Bolsonaro enjoys international support from the US administration, CEPAC, and major media corporations, along with the power of Pentecostal evangelical congregations. However, his most important asset lies in the deteriorating management of Lula’s administration, the divisions within the PT, and the loss of influence of this political group among leftist popular sectors, as evidenced a few months ago in the results of the municipal elections.

There is a possibility that Bolsonaro will transfer votes to other right-wing candidates for the 2026 elections, taking into account that the results of the municipal elections did not accompany him as they expected, despite the fact that the extreme right remains a powerful opposition force.

Bolsonarism is trying to transform its anti-democratic and coup-like actions into a political act, victimizing itself and exposing the justice system to the public as a government maneuver to prevent it from participating in the upcoming 2026 presidential elections. Hence the slogan its followers use: “Without Bolsonaro, there is no democracy in Brazil. “

Bolsonarism stands out as a counterrevolutionary “combat” movement, with a “permanent offensive.” Its hatred and fanatical religious indoctrination based on social and cultural resentments in various social sectors, including agribusiness, the middle classes, and various evangelical groups, deniers, and defenders of the military dictatorship, transform it, as has been seen during its mandate, into a pragmatic neo-fascist movement.

Bolsonaro is a charismatic leader who can manipulate his followers, especially in times of crisis, and has a significant presence within Brazilian institutions, including the military, the judiciary, and parliament, as well as four governors and dozens of deputies.

Their strategy aims to denounce Judge Alexandre de Moraes for “persecution”, who had already condemned him in other cases, pressure the National Congress through the governors to articulate legal instruments in defense of a reconciling “pacification”, and promote activism on social networks where they benefit from the architecture of algorithms dominated by the big techs , strengthening the mobilizations called for April in São Paulo and Belo Horizonte.

Lula facing the next elections

Lula faces several challenges ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, which could mean consolidating his plan to “Rescue 33 million people from hunger and more than 100 million Brazilians from poverty” and advancing his promises regarding “minimum wage, development, green transition, and inclusion.”

Biden administration’s agenda and diametrically opposed to the Trump administration’s policies, a key partner for the country’s exports.

Lula knows that his health and age should lead him to seriously consider reelection, but he still hasn’t ruled out running for office. This situation worries many sectors within and outside the PT, as his “excessive prudence and confidence” in governing and his “wait and see” strategy have been heavily criticized for missed opportunities to confront Brazil’s powerful sectors.

The welfare concept, centered on “handouts” of subsidies, scholarships, loans, and other benefits to win by 2026, is, for many, destined to fail because it lacks the necessary aggressiveness to confront fascism.

Lula needs to implement significant changes in the lives of working people to ensure victory in 2026. To do so, he must revalue the importance of constant ideological struggle within the party and generate a shift in government tactics, moving from bureaucratic compromises to more combative stances.

The fight to dismantle fake news like “Pixgate”, which circulated about the government taxing Pix , the most popular form of payment via QR code, a tool similar to the payment market in Brazil, requires initiative and commitment from activists and officials.

Likewise, the fight against food price speculation, hoarding, and smuggling requires a massive mobilization to engage the public and expose those responsible for unscrupulous practices. Government inertia is not the way forward.

Lula’s figure generated a hopeful victory for the popular sectors in the context of the complex Brazilian political landscape, where the right, imbued with messianic arrogance, disbelieved in the possibility of their adversary’s comeback.

Today, conditions are different, and the low willingness to fight among workers and youth complicates the outlook for the left. Perhaps the arrival of Gleisi Hoffman, president of the PT and a former deputy, to the position of secretary of institutional relations could galvanize the party and the government for the challenges ahead.