Myanmar’s Path to Reconstruction

By Mehmet Enes Beşer

Since the February 2021 military coup by the military junta, Myanmar has been mired in a multi-faceted crisis of political instability, economic decline, and humanitarian crises. The way ahead towards country reconstruction is unclear and fraught with intricacies that require arduous and long-term measures.

State Administration Council (SAC) chairman General Min Aung Hlaing has faced intense domestic and international condemnation. The junta’s intention to go ahead with elections in December 2025 or January 2026 was ignored. The elections have been labeled as a “sham” by experts as the opposition parties were banned and some 22,000 political prisoners, including top leader Aung San Suu Kyi, were imprisoned. These actions delegitimize any electoral process and can lead to more violence.

Escalating Conflict and Humanitarian Crisis

The consequences of the coup have been mounting armed confrontations, with ethnic armed groups (EAOs) controlling areas in Kachin, Rakhine, Chin, Karenni, and Karen states. This has caused mass displacement and civilian casualties. For instance, recent air strikes by the military that killed 27 civilians and injured another 30 in Let Pan Hla village demonstrate the heavy human toll of the conflict.

The humanitarian crisis is severe. Natural disasters, including crippling floods triggered by Typhoon Yagi, compounded the crisis, resulting in massive shortages of basic commodities and bleak economic outlook. The World Bank is estimating a 1% contraction of Myanmar’s GDP during the year to March 2025, a sharp contrast to prior growth expectations.

Economic Decline and Social Strain

Myanmar’s economy has also been greatly impacted by war and political instability that still dominates. Natural disasters, the war itself, and overall commodity shortages have greatly impacted Myanmar’s economy, with the economic situation still gloomy, the World Bank says.

The financial crisis has been the driving force for more poverty and unemployment, and this has in turn put extra pressure on social cohesion. Health centers are oversaturated, and education access has been cut off, resulting in human capital losses. There is brain drain experienced, with a majority of young people running to other destinations to seek opportunities as there are none locally.

International Dynamics and Withdrawal of Aid

There is a split global response. Beijing has committed Myanmar’s political reform and Premier Li Qiang once praised the junta on its pledge to political talks and peace. President Donald Trump, however, abruptly pulled US foreign aid in a move crippling Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement. The abrupt withdrawal led to suspended health services in the refugee camps, closed schools in rebel camps, and shut safe houses for activists. Independent media, as crucial as they are to countering the regime’s propaganda campaign, are most at risk and, with the exception of a few, are not able to access alternative funding.

Paths to Reconstruction

Myanmar reconstruction will be a multi-faceted effort:

• Inclusive Political Debate: There should be an inclusive political and democratic process first and foremost. This is inclusive of all stakeholders like opposition forces and ethnic minorities so that they can offer national reconciliation. The world needs to support ASEAN to support dialogue while at the same time observing any process of election for freedom and fairness.
• Humanitarian Aid: Relief must be provided to meet the bare minimum needs of the victims and the displaced. These include medicine, food, and shelter so that international assistance is not politicized and brought to the needy.
• Economic Stabilization: The economy has to be stabilized by the restoration of investor and public confidence. This can be achieved by adopting unequivocal economic policies, eradicating corruption, and achieving balanced resource allocation. Technical assistance and conditionality-funded assistance from international financial institutions towards structural transformation can aid in this regard.
• Strengthen Civil Society: Local citizens and civil society organizations must be empowered so that they can promote grass-roots development and accountability. Independent media and human rights groups must be assisted to regain confidence and have active and informed citizens involved in the rebuilding of the country.

Myanmar’s path to reconstruction is actually beset by challenges. The coincidence of political illegitimacy, economic stagnation, and humanitarian crises calls for coordination of efforts among national stakeholders and the international community. Though it was long, unwavering dedication that liberated communication, humanitarian aid, economic change, and people empowerment can forge a democratic and great Myanmar.