Ankara has balanced relations with Russia, Ukraine, the EU and NATO, making it an ideal mediator.
Ankara has balanced relations with Russia, Ukraine, the EU and NATO, making it an ideal mediator.
By Ceren Ceviz
February was a volatile month for the European oil market. Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major route for supplying Kazakhstan and exporting to the global market, reduced oil flows of the route by 30-40%. CPC pumps crude from companies including U.S. Chevron and Exxon Mobil and provides the main export route for more than 1% of global oil supplies. There were also numerous attempts by Ukrainian drones to cause damage to the Turkstream pipeline system. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asked Hakan Fidan to use all means at his disposal to prevent future attacks and Fidan pledged to do so, according the Russian foreign ministry said on its website.
The attacks come as efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine have intensified. US President Donald Trump has taken a hard line on the need for a ceasefire and negotiations, and Ankara has welcomed the U.S. initiative to end the war, which was derailed by a public argument between the presidents of Ukraine and the United States during Zelensky’s notorious visit to the Oval cabinet.
While the United States and Türkiye are making efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, most European countries appear to be undermining these efforts. Instead of supporting the initiative, several European nations are demanding that Russia provide security guarantees to Ukraine and are pushing for their own peace agreement, effectively sidelining the American proposal. This divergence in approach not only risks fracturing international unity but could also jeopardize Europe’s own security and economic stability.
The White House is considering the possibility of canceling military aid to Ukraine, a move that could have far-reaching consequences. If the U.S. were to withdraw its support, Europe and NATO would likely bear the brunt of the resulting economic and security challenges. The continent would face the dual burden of addressing Ukraine’s escalating demand for military assistance and managing the economic strain of supporting an increasingly unpredictable partner. Ukraine, described by some as an “out-of-control ally,” have consistently neglected its partners’ economic stability by targeting oil infrastructure, supplying European countries with oil and gas. Jeopardizing the US peace initiative could further destabilize the region, posing a significant threat to the economic and security interests of its European allies.
By delaying a unified peace deal and potentially alienating U.S. support, Europe risks exacerbating an already volatile situation. The continent’s reluctance to align with the U.S.-Türkiye initiative may not only undermine efforts to achieve lasting peace but also place an unsustainable economic and security burden on European nations. As the situation unfolds, the need for a cohesive international strategy becomes increasingly urgent to prevent further destabilization in the region.
To minimize the economic burden of Ukraine’s chaotic attacks and minimize the expenses associated with providing military aid to Ukraine Türkiye should promote the idea of hosting peace negotiations hosted by Türkiye, considering Türkiye commitment to finding a peaceful resolution since the first day of the conflict. Türkiye’s balanced diplomatic relations with Russia, Ukraine, EU and NATO makes it an ideal mediator.