By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist / Author
The conflict in Syria, which has been going on for more than a decade and the global competition staged there, is rapidly moving towards a different level with the recent positive steps taken by Syria’s new leader Ahmed Ash-Shara.
After weeks of negotiations between Ahmed Ash-Shara and the SDF, which is composed of militants from the PKK-YPG terrorist organization, the group, under pressure from the United States, signed an agreement stating that it “renounced acting as an autonomous structure” and agreed to be integrated into the Syrian Army.
There are undoubtedly many loopholes and trust issues with the agreement. Moreover, the fact that the implementation process of the agreement will be spread over a long period of 9 months may undoubtedly lead to provocations and the terrorist organization’s attempts to find a “new exit” to survive.
It is precisely at this point that it is necessary to carefully follow the steps of the countries that will want to use this group, which has been used as a useful apparatus in the region for decades.
In an arena where Russia and Iran are losing power, it can be said that the United States under the Trump administration has entered a process in which it will remain in the background a little more than in the past.
However, recent developments reveal that a Syria in which Türkiye is the main actor is causing great unease, especially in Iran and Israel.
So, what might happen next? How can Iran and Israel provoke the 9-month process of implementing the agreement between Damascus and the terrorist organization SDF?
Türkiye’s influence and decisive strategy in Syria
Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Türkiye has pursued a determined and effective policy on border security, preventing migration waves and combating terrorism.
When necessary, Türkiye has not hesitated to take military action despite the US, Russia and Iran, and when necessary, it has led diplomatic processes, such as the Astana process, and implemented a strategy that will be a lesson to the world.
With military operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Peace Spring and Spring Shield since 2016, Türkiye has prevented Western powers such as the US and France from establishing a terrorist state on Türkiye’s border, while at the same time being almost the only country to raise its voice against the Assad regime’s massacres both in the international arena and in structures such as the Arab League, GCC and Astana.
Türkiye has cleared many areas in northern Syria from terrorist organizations, built cities in these areas for the Syrian people to live in humanitarian conditions and guaranteed their security.
While the elites of the West only shouted about so-called human rights, Türkiye showed the world how to guarantee human rights with the migrants it accepted and the safe zones and living spaces it established in Syria.
At this point, Türkiye’s support for Syria’s territorial integrity and reconstruction, in which Türkiye is now the main actor, is especially disturbing Israel and Iran.
This is because both Israel and Iran see an environment in which they cannot be effective in a stable Syria as a threat to their expansionist goals.
Israel, in particular, sees Türkiye’s expanding influence in Syria as a threat to its expansionist goals and has been carrying out occupation activities in the Golan Heights and beyond, abusing the transition period in Syria.
However, it seems that this occupation will not be enough for Israel. Israel will continue its provocations, first through the terrorist organization IDF and then through the Druze.
Israel’s provocations and Türkiye’s reaction
Throughout the Syrian civil war, Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Syria, supposedly due to the influence of Iranian-backed groups, and immediately after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel began to occupy areas officially designated as demilitarized zones under the 1974 peace agreement with Syria.
Israel crossed over the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, coming as close as 15 kilometers to Damascus, and occupied a number of Syrian towns on Syrian territory, such as Al-Hamidiya, Samdaniya, Ofaniya, Quneitra and Al-Gharbiyye, under the pretext of creating a so-called “safe zone”.
Israel also sees Türkiye’s presence in northern Syria as a counterweight and is taking steps to limit Türkiye’s influence in Syria.
For this purpose, it is trying to carry out provocations through the PKK and its Syrian extension YPG.
As a matter of fact, the names in Israel’s cabinet, which is characterized as extreme right-wing, have been making statements one after another talking about the rights of the so-called Kurdish and Druze groups, despite the integration agreements of the SDF and the Druze groups in the Suwayda region with the Damascus administration.
This makes it clear that Israel will not be satisfied with its occupation of southern Syria and will use the next 9 months for new provocations.
Israel’s efforts to take control of strategic points, especially in southern Syria, are seen as a sign of its intention to establish a long-term Israeli presence in the region.
Conclusion
While Türkiye acts with the strategy of ensuring stability in the region, securing its borders against terrorism and protecting Syria’s territorial integrity, Israel continues to act with the goal of an unstable Syria in order to limit Türkiye’s growing influence in the region and continue its expansionist policies.
This is because a strong Syria and a growing Turkish influence in the region have the potential to be one of the biggest impacts on Israel’s expansionist goals.
As a matter of fact, in an analysis published recently by the Aspen Institute, an Italian think tank, the words “Türkiye’s becoming a long-term active actor in Syria could create a scenario that Israel fears even more than Iran’s nuclear bomb.” summarize the meaning of the current situation for Israel.