Turkish soldiers to Ukraine?

By Yunus Soner

The US president seeks talks with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, while European countries and Britain are advancing their support for Kyiv and discussing the permanent deployment of armed forces.

A crucial role plays, due its geographic location as well as diplomatic ties to both Moscow and Kyiv, Türkiye. The Erdoğan government has always presented itself as a possible mediator in the conflict. How does Ankara see the idea of a so-called peace force in Ukraine? How does Türkiye perceive Trump’s initiative for a ceasefire? And would Türkiye deploy armed forces to Ukraine?

We asked these questions to Mesut Hakkı Caşın, professor at the Yeditepe University and more importantly, member of the Turkish Presidential Council on Security and International Relations.

Thank you very much, Professor, for taking the time. My first question will be this. On the Western front, on the European side, there are some military measures being discussed for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Among these is the deployment of a military force here. Can you explain this? What is the logic behind this?

Thank you. In fact, the Russian-Ukrainian War has completed its third year. However, peace cannot be established. And this war, which somehow threatens the Euro-Atlantic Alliance, risks turning into a thermonuclear war where nuclear weapons can be used rather than just the conventional war we know.

Indeed, the Russian side’s attack on Ukraine’s energy centers with missile attacks recently, its first use of intercontinental ballistic missiles last month, and Russia’s renewed defense industry by supporting the front with both North Korea, Iran and China, show Russia’s current attitude.

Russia does not want to leave the places it has conquered, starting with Crimea. So, is this ceasefire possible? According to international law, in order for a ceasefire to take place, the consent of both parties is absolutely necessary, and this again requires a neutral state to mediate, as per Article 33 of the United Nations Charter, or an organization such as the United Nations or its Secretary General.

But somehow, we see that only American President Trump is approaching this from one side. He also set a five hundred-billion-dollar mining agreement from Zelensky as a precondition, in front of the eyes of the whole world.

What did this cause? This caused a big rift in the Atlantic alliance on the Western side. Will this chasm deepen, can a ceasefire be achieved? In my opinion, when we look at the conditions of the ceasefire, the Western side is talking about giving guarantees, resolving the territorial issue and Crimea. But is this possible? In other words, when we look at the Russian side, Mr. Putin stated in his statement in June that Ukraine must definitely withdraw its military units from Donetsk , Luhansk , Kherson and Zaporozhe regions, give up its desire to join NATO and guarantee not to become a member of the alliance. Simultaenously, the Russian president demanded Ukraine to discuss and dialogue not via the West but with Russia itself.

Overall, I think this ceasefire agreement can be reached, because human and material losses on both sides have reached very high levels. But diplomacy and law always end wars and as the Turkish President stated, every peace agreement is more important than the greatest victory.

Let me say the following as a final sentence: The Ukrainian side is tired of the war and could not get what they wanted. They were left alone in terms of tactics and strategy. In particular, the US cutting off arms aid, financial aid and very important intelligence and satellite support has reduced military moral support to zero.

Soldiers reject to got to the front. Families are rejecting the war. Everyone gives the responsibility to Zelensky, who has led two brother nations into war and has unsuccessfully managed it. But Zelensky does not go to the elections, citing the war as an excuse. However, in the talks that America has held in the background, as you know, in Istanbul last week, diplomats spoke for 6.5 hours, they are foreseeing elections as a precondition for the ceasefire.

Indeed, Trump does not want to work with Zelensky either. I expect activity next spring, and I am hopeful that a ceasefire can happen.

Well, within the framework of this ceasefire, the Europeans are considering and discussing deploying troops to the ceasefire line. There are many statements in Europe on this subject. And the inclusion of the Turkish Armed Forces in this quota is also being discussed. What do you think of this?

Now, the Turkish Armed Forces do not given such a guarantee or commitment yet. This is only in the talks. Foreign Minister Lavrov made a very important statement that, if the West sends troops there, this would mean that NATO will go to war. He came to Türkiye again, they met with our Foreign Minister, and he also said the following: He stated that the Ukrainian army attacked the Turkish Stream with unmanned sea vehicles and that the Russians prevented this at the last moment.

As a matter of fact, I was at the President’s iftar dinner, when he said: While everyone was carrying firewood for the war in the Ukraine War, we were on the side of peace. As you may remember, I was present at both the Antalya peace table and in Istanbul as a representative of the Presidency.

Türkiye had brought both warring parties to the table. Later, Mr. Putin announced that the party that did not want this agreement was England. The Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs said: The genie is out of the bottle now. There is no way to put it back in. If NATO is dissolved, Türkiye will want to be part of the new European Security Architecture. European security should be planned with Türkiye, and European security cannot be reduced to just the Ukraine War. While Türkiye treats both Ukraine and Russia equally, when we look at what is being discussed for the peacekeeping force, let’s not forget the following:

Ukraine and Russia are both very big states. Their lands are very large. A possible ceasefire line is 1000 km. After the buffer zone is established, there will be the issue of collecting weapons. If the United Nations Peace Force is not used, there is talk of sending 30 thousand soldiers, with a possible 100 thousand soldiers. Which army will provide these soldiers?

When you look at it, it is important that there is a disagreement between Trump and his European allies. France and England want to send troops, but Germany is hesitant, and Italy has responded in some way: Rome said, “I am not involved in this.” So will Türkiye send troops? According to our constitution, for Türkiye to send troops, approval must be obtained from the parliament. Politically and diplomatically, the parties must first sign this ceasefire and insist on it in some way for peace and want peace. I wonder how Russia will respond to Türkiye’s desire to enter a partnership outside of NATO in the new European Security Architecture, as I have just said?

And this is a fact that Türkiye must live together with Russia, the Caucasus and the Black Sea. Indeed, before these conflicts, the Black Sea Force, which we call the Black Sea Security Organization, was protecting the Black Sea with Turkish-Ukrainian ships. And Türkiye prevented a possible Russia-NATO war both in the 2008 Georgia war and in this war, by not allowing NATO ships here and by using the Montreux Convention, it closed it. So, I think Türkiye has the key and I think Türkiye can definitely make some contributions in the ceasefire or sending troops. But here, both sides need to be present. First of all, a peace agreement is needed between the warring parties.

Not between America and Ukraine or Ukraine and the West, nor between America and Russia. It is necessary for Russia and Ukraine to sit at the peace table as two free and sovereign states. Again, according to Article 33, if there is a mediator state, which must be a neutral state. So far, Türkiye is the most neutral state despite some discussions and, as I said, wants an immediate ceasefire.

So, is the capacity of the Turkish Armed Forces military -wise suitable for such a mission? You are also a security expert and a working soldier. How do you evaluate this?

The Turkish Armed Forces have ready units that can be allocated to both NATO units and the United Nations. These units are being trained in both the European and Thrace sectors. And Türkiye is the country that sent the most soldiers to the United Nations Peace Force after America during the Cold War. We saw this in Korea, we saw this in Bosnia, we saw this in Kosovo, and Turkish soldiers are still serving in Kosovo.

Right now, there are Turkish soldiers on the Lebanese border, which is the most difficult place in the world. I believe that the Turkish army’s capabilities are sufficient, but not as a warring party. Instead, as blue helmets, under United Nations or Peacekeeping umbrella. The Turkish army can contribute in some way to ensure the security of both brother states without being a warring party. But here, both NATO, the European Union and the United Nations Organization must be guarantors, and most importantly, the sovereign consent of Moscow and Kiev must be present.

Because without consent, these soldiers will be shot at and if the rules of engagement are applied, Turkish soldiers and Russian soldiers will come face to face. Türkiye will never accept such a risk and threat.

Because after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the Türkiye-Russia military agreement was signed, which I was a part of. There are very important strategic connections between Türkiye and the Russian side, and despite all the criticism, two important leaders in the challenges of the 21st century, Mr. Putin and Mr. President Erdoğan continue this friendship for the vital interests of both countries.

Here, in the coming days, one of Türkiye’s biggest investments in the history of the republic, the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, will be put into operation. Neither America nor our European allies gave us this technology.

Again, during the time of Süleyman Demirel, Soviet aid had established refineries in Türkiye. Aluminum factories in Türkiye are Soviet-made. Iron and steel factories were established by the Soviets. Türkiye never forgets a favor and thinks that this friendship, the alliance between Türkiye and Russia, is very important for the security of the Black Sea and the Caucasus, as well as for the Turkish Republics.

On the other hand, I think Ankara is following a line that can somehow meet Russia’s expectations against China’s challenges.

Our government representatives said that security cooperation between Türkiye and the European Union should not be considered limited to Ukraine. What do you think Türkiye’s and Ankara’s concrete demands from Brussels are here? In other words, what could be the cooperation in the field of security?

Of course, here, European Union membership is a strategic priority for Türkiye. President Erdoğan has already emphasized it. Today, European Security is not only a matter of the member states of the Union, but of all European allies. This is very important from Ankara’s perspective. And Mr. President also emphasized this. The Black Sea navigation security. What does this mean? Right now, both sides have eliminated the guarantee of non-attack after the grain agreement. Any grain-carrying ship can be torpedoed and sunk. Or it can be hit by one of the stray mines here.

The attacks on the Turkish Stream that I just mentioned are being watched with extreme caution by the Turkish side. And the Turkish mine fleet is working 24/7 in the Black Sea.

The European Union’s interests are of course based on its own organizational interests. But Türkiye, as a sovereign state, should be addressed and if a new European Security Architecture is to be established, what can be done that is not only focused on Ukraine? In other words, alliances do not last forever.

Therefore, if such an alliance is to be established, and Türkiye has somehow become a party to the European Union’s common defense policy and has allocated troops during my time in office, I think that these issues, which are still under discussion, will be shaped according to America’s stance in the future.

But today, Mr. President implemented it again: We do not believe that peace will somehow be achieved by excluding America in the Euro-Atlantic Alliance. Because Russia has six thousand five hundred nuclear weapons. However, when we look at it, only France has nuclear weapons in the European continent. Therefore, when we look at the nuclear parity, Türkiye needs to progress in a very smart, very balanced way, and it has done so until now.

I think an end to this dramatic, merciless war between two brother states as soon as possible is the wisest thing to do. Türkiye advocates a European security architecture that does not exclude Russia but the opposite, its inclusion.