“America First” in Africa

By Hend Selim

Dr. Colin Campbell, Communication and Culture Assistant Professor at Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania, talked about the future of the American policy toward Africa under Donald Trump’s administration.

How do you expect the future of the American policy toward South Africa, especially in the light of the last developments?

The future of U.S. policy towards South Africa (SA) is likely to be governed by several key factors, particularly in light of recent developments related to governance, economic opportunities, and regional security. 

The first area will be economic engagement. As South Africa is one of the most developed economies on the continent of Africa, the U.S. may focus on enhancing trade relations and investment opportunities, especially in sectors like renewable energies, technology, and agriculture. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could continue to play a significant role in fostering trade partnerships.

When it comes to democracy and governance the US is expected to emphasize the importance of democracy, human rights, and good governance with a bias towards SA’s white populations. Current US policy has been energized to be more antagonistic towards South Africa showing a bias towards aggrieved white landowners. The US is allowing refuge for disaffected Afrikaners at the same time it is augmenting domestic deportation policies.

Given South Africa’s reliance on coal and its commitment to transitioning to greener energy sources, U.S. policy may work very tepidly about climate change initiatives. This could include partnerships for renewable energy development and support for sustainable practices, particularly in light of global climate commitments. However, recent policy in the US is de-emphasizing renewable energies domestically, so we can expect a mirroring of that policy decrease in SA.

South Africa is integral in regional diplomacy and stability in the southern part of Africa. US policy may involve collaboration with South Africa on security issues, including conflicts in neighboring countries with efforts in combating terrorism and organized crime. This also includes speaking out against genocide, which South Africa has stood oppugnant to regarding Israel’s mass extermination of Palestinian peoples.

Because of SA’s geographic interconnectedness, the U.S. is likely to enhance its multilateral approach, working with South Africa within international organizations to address global challenges such as health crises, climate change, and economic recovery post-COVID-19. This may also involve renewed efforts to strengthen ties with the African Union and other regional bodies, the least of which may be aspirational at best.

As competition with China and Russia increases, the U.S. may seek to boost its influence in South Africa by highlighting shared values and strategic partnerships, particularly in areas like technology, infrastructure development, and education. Overall, U.S. policy towards South Africa is expected to evolve in a way that balances economic interests with a commitment to democratic values that prioritize whiteness, regional stability, and global issues, while also navigating the complexities of international competition and cooperation.

To what extent the Democratic Republic of Congo has become a main challenge for Trump’s administration?

Right now, it depends on how courts will rule regarding foreign service employees who had severe challenges in leaving Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after they were ordered to cease their US operations there. After a chaotic departure from Kinshasa, US employees expressed alarm over worsening conditions. This has raised a level of concern regarding presenting several potential challenges for the Trump administration, primarily due to its geopolitical significance, resource wealth, and ongoing issues related to governance and stability. As a nation rich in minerals such as cobalt and coltan, crucial for technology and renewable energy sectors, the DRC’s resources were of interest to U.S. economic and strategic interests.

Political instability, humanitarian crises, and conflict in the DRC could pose challenges for the administration in terms of managing U.S. foreign policy and addressing regional security concerns. Additionally, the DRC’s relations with China, which has invested heavily in the country, could complicate U.S. efforts to maintain influence in Africa. The administration would also need to navigate human rights issues, as the DRC has faced criticism for governance and repression, potentially impacting U.S. relations with other African nations and international organizations.

Overall, while the DRC might not have been the primary focus of the Trump administration, its challenges related to resources, stability, and human rights were likely to require attention and could complicate broader U.S. foreign policy objectives in Africa.

What are the expected changes in the American policy toward Africa under Trump’s administration?

Under the Trump administration, American policy towards Africa is expected to shift in several significant ways. One conspicuous change is a focus on economic engagement over traditional aid. The administration is emphasizing trade and investment initiatives, aiming to promote American business interests in Africa rather than relying primarily on foreign aid. Additionally, there is a targeted emphasis on counterterrorism and security, with increased support for African nations autonomously combating extremist groups with a decreased US role.

The administration’s approach is also deploying a more transactional stance, prioritizing relationships with countries that align with U.S. interests, which sometimes means overlooking issues related to governance and human rights. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from various international agreements and organizations could lead to decreased multilateral engagement in Africa, affecting cooperation on issues like climate change and health crises. Overall, the expected changes reflected a more pragmatic and economically motivated U.S. policy towards Africa, with a focus on national interests and security concerns.

How do you expect the American policy toward Africa during the Trump era?

With an administration that is consolidating its power around what it describes as an “America First” policy, it is dubious that there will be augmented outreach from this administration. In fact, it’s ostensible that there will be an attenuation of previous administration attention, especially in the financial sense. Another program that stands highly at risk is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This is a program that was designed to boost trade with sub-Saharan Africa allowing the continent market access to the U.S. for eligible goods and engage in eased trade regulations that were often duty-free.

How do you expect the future of the American investment in the Lobito Corridor – a rail line stretching through Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia?

I’m not expecting a major contribution from the US, unless there is an appeal to the president-elect’s ego or if there is something for the US to gain financially in a major way. The United States has been largely dormant regarding investment in Africa except in its efforts leaning towards military imperialism such as ARICOM.

Trump recognized that if the US was going to counter China’s growing economic influence in Africa, it needed to maintain some level of partnership. What steps can Trump take to reduce China’s influence in Africa? 

Considering that the US has lost a lot of influence in Africa especially in comparison to China, it will be intriguing to observe how Trump operates in correspondence to lost ground. The president-elect will face numerous questions in reference to US endeavors on the continent. He will need to decide what the US’ involvement would be in the Sudan war. He will also need to consider what the US will do in response to China’s heavy influence on the continent. He seems keen on rolling back Biden-led initiatives which could include the US’ commitment to $3 Billion dollars in investment trade routes in Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Will Trump’s administration reduce the American aid to Africa, especially as Trump’s previous administration repeatedly made proposals to slash foreign aid worldwide? 

This is highly likely. This is because Trump has taken on the mantra of an “America First” policy. We have witnessed him criticize US foreign policy especially in reference to budgetary considerations. The president-elect’s focus is on China. This could mean that whatever leverage he can use to compete against China could take resources away from multinational aid agreements on the African continent. Trump has already shown a distaste for excessive spending in regard to foreign nations. He has already withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization (WHO), of which it is a founding member. The WHO has been integral in addressing global health emergencies and shaping policy in the efforts of improving global health conditions. In addition to the US withdrawal, Trump has placed an approximate 3-month freeze on foreign aid.

How do you expect the future of Pepfar, a long-running US initiative that has poured huge sums into fighting HIV in Africa

The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is another agency, in addition to WHO that is already losing funding effectively immediately with the inception of the Trump administration. PEPFAR has a $6.5 billion annual budget that helps to distribute HIV/AIDS medicines for more than 20 million people. These medications help to preserve life and restrict the spread of the virus. It also includes education and testing as part of the budget. It’s estimated that PEPFAR has saved more than 26 million lives since the program started in 2003 under President George W. Bush. The future of US funding into that program is now questionable under Trump as are the lives of people who depend on PEPFAR’s continuance.

Can the USA and France or other Western countries develop a common strategy towards Africa under the Trump administration?

Of course, anything can happen. But there needs to be a desire from Trump and only then will his cabinet members follow. The Republican-led Congress would most likely sign onto what Trump wants but not without debate. Despite all of this. Members of Trump’s administration acknowledge that there are numerous opportunities in Africa outside of military industrial complex exploitation and the import of South African post-apartheid culture.

Will Trump offer support to African countries in an attempt to push Russia out in view of that Moscow is providing troops and arms to some countries such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

I do not think Trump will escalate US military presence in Africa with the focused purpose on thwarting Russia. The only thing that could change the dynamic of decreased US military buildup amid a Russia increase would be a direct threat to US security there. The desire for Trump to invest millions of dollars into Africa is already demonstrating to be a sticking point for the president. He ran on a virtually anti-war platform condemning US escalation in other parts of the world and claiming he could end wars between Russia and Ukraine and the Israeli military against Palestinian people within hours. Neither has happened despite the president’s assertions, but he still claims that he wants to end regional aggressions. At the same time, we still see agreements and drills between the US and areas like Algeria and the Central African Republic. So, there will still be US military interests there, but their motivation will not be solely on stifling Russia but rather paying attention to US interests including Africa’s bountiful resources and protecting any US national security interests.