Interview to Sputnik Türkiye.
Interview to Sputnik Türkiye.
By Onur Sinan Güzaltan
UWI writer and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan shared his views with Sputnik Türkçe on the impact of Trump’s policies on the US-EU alliance and its consequences for the Ukraine issue.
We present the interview translated into English.
Following the neocon-led Biden administration, Donald Trump’s return to power has brought significant shifts to US’s foreign policy. These changes are being felt on a global scale. As Trump moves to halt what is now an increasingly evident Western defeat in the third year of the Ukraine conflict, his actions are straining Washington’s ties with its European allies.
The tensions in the transatlantic alliance go beyond just the Ukraine crisis. Trump’s expected imposition of trade tariffs on Europe is also causing unease on the continent.
On the third anniversary of the Ukraine crisis, we spoke with legal expert and author Onur Sinan Güzaltan, known for his books on Russia, about the fractures within the Western bloc.
“The West has suffered a major defeat in Ukraine”
According to Güzaltan, the West has attempted to weaken Russia through various sanctions across multiple sectors, however, what has unfolded in Ukraine is a significant defeat for the West, driven in part by the emergence of multipolarity:
“One thing is clear: the Western bloc, or you may call it the collective West, the US and Europe, has suffered a major defeat in Ukraine. So, we are witnessing its fragmentation. Within Europe, differing voices are emerging, and with Trump’s return, the ties between the US and Europe have weakened considerably, even to the point of rupture. What lies behind this shift is the process of multipolarity.
The Ukraine issue was one of the birth pangs of this multipolar world. The West initially tried to form a united front against Russia, pouring in troops, logistical support, and financial aid while imposing harsh sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy. However, at this stage, we see that Ukraine has become a severe defeat for the West. And after every major defeat, divisions inevitably emerge among the losing side. Today, we are witnessing the unraveling of what was once perceived as an ‘all-powerful’, ‘invincible’ Western bloc.”
“Europe cannot remain its stance against Russia without the US”
Onur Sinan Güzaltan describes the current European leadership as the “remnants of old Europe” and argues that their efforts to challenge Russia are futile:
“The governments in Europe today are essentially reflections of the pre-Trump period, the period of the Biden and Obama administrations. In a way, they are the remnants of old Europe. The political elites and a segment of the capital in Europe followed a particular course to maintain their positions. But that course has now been defeated. This defeat is not limited to Ukraine; with Trump’s return, it has also taken shape within the US itself. His administration represents a different strategic perspective, a new way of interpreting global affairs.
In Europe, those who still hold power are aligned with the groups Trump is fighting against in Washington. These remnants of the old order are trying to hold on to their positions. Their insistence on continuing to support Ukraine, even without the US, and standing up to Russia stems from this. However, they are rowing against the tide of history, and they can’t succeed.
For Europe, energy is a huge problem, and without backing from the US, it is impossible for them to sustain this war with Russia. In the coming period, we will likely witness government changes in Europe with new ones aligning with the emerging global order. The current situation in Europe is unsustainable.”
“Ukraine is only one of topics in US-Russia talks”
Güzaltan emphasizes that the crisis in Ukraine is not solely about Ukraine itself but rather about weakening Russia and severing its ties with Europe. He also highlights that discussions between Washington and Moscow are not just about Ukraine but cover a broad range of bilateral issues:
“Some have reduced US-Russia talks to the topic of Ukraine, but Ukraine is merely one of the topics on the table. What the Russians and Americans are really discussing are the rules, boundaries and principles of a new global order. Both countries have spheres of influence and Europe is at the forefront of these along with West Asia. The priority appears to be de-escalating tensions and establishing a structured relationship between the two powers.
These talks will try to redefine the framework of their relationship. Economic relations also play an important role. The presence of the head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund in these discussions is significant.”
Güzaltan points out that both Trump and Putin share ideological similarities, particularly in their stance against the European political elite. He argues that discussions on the future of Europe will be central to US-Russia talks:
“Trump is currently at odds with the political elite governing Europe, just as Putin has been for years. Also, the Ukraine issue was never just about Ukraine. The primary objective was to weaken Russia, the secondary goal was to sever ties between Russia and Europe. From the very beginning, the real issue was always Europe. When left to its natural course, geographically, culturally and economically, Europe has historically tended to integrate with Russia. The US instigated the Ukraine crisis precisely to disrupt this integration particularly in the energy sector. To some extent, this strategy worked. However, now the entire front in Ukraine has collapsed. So, the critical question is: What will become of Europe?”
“Europe is living in an illusion”
Güzaltan highlights that Europe has been sidelined from peace negotiations, suggesting that Trump prefers to handle matters directly with Putin. He argues that European leaders are living in an illusion:
“Under the current circumstances, Trump is unlikely to bring Europe to the negotiating table. The continent is still governed by the remnants of the old order, and they are at odds with Trump on multiple fronts. Trump would prefer to resolve the entire issue directly with Putin. But this isn’t just about Ukraine, it is about shaping the future of Europe. In fact, it’s broader than that, the talks between Russia and the US will also address the trajectory of West Asia.
If you look at what European newspapers are writing and what their leaders are saying, you see that Europe is now living in an illusion. The war has been lost. So, who will pay the price? The current leadership refuses to bear that burden. That is the crux of the issue. As a result, we are likely to see major shifts in European governments in the near future.”
“A tragicomic episode in Europe”
Reflecting on the sanctions and cultural bans imposed on Russia by Europe in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Güzaltan describes the entire process as “tragicomic”. Despite these pressures, he notes, Russia has not severed ties with the existing system:
“From the very start of the Ukraine crisis, Europe has been going through what can be described as a tragicomic episode. Sanctions on Russia, cultural bans etc. were all signs of Europe’s internal decay and fragmentation. If we look at history, we see periods of cooperation and clash between Russia and Europe. Remember Napoleon’s campaigns and Hitler’s invasion. The Russians are no strangers to such. While we have seen sanctions, war, diplomatic tensions and cultural restrictions, Russia has not entirely separated from the Western-centric economic system. This is a crucial point.
Looking ahead, in the context of a potential Putin-Trump meeting and the relationship between Putin and Xi Jinping, we may witness significant economic shifts within Russia as the Atlantic system itself fractures. These economic transformations could bring about cultural changes.
Russia still perceives itself as European. In official statements, we often hear claims such as, ‘We are the true representatives of Europe’. However, if the underlying economic structure changes, Russia might gradually distance itself from this framework.
Two critical developments will shape the future: First, the creation of a new economic model independent of the Atlantic system, and second, the trajectory of Russia-China relations. The course of Russia-China relations will be a decisive factor on a global scale.”