Overall, a new civilization is being born in the world.
Overall, a new civilization is being born in the world.
Trump is moving forward at full speed. A lot is changing. It has almost been confirmed that negotiations will begin to end the war in Ukraine. What’s striking is that Europe has been completely excluded from the process.
UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan answered our questions regarding the rapidly evolving developments.
Trump has expressed his intention to “expel Gazans”, he is conducting a trade war with China, and tensions with Iran are expected to rise. However, there is the opposite direction in Russia. How can we explain this?
When compared to the Biden administration, Trump has a different strategy. For example, it is said that he will focus on the Asia-Pacific region, with China as the primary target. He imposes tariffs, attempts to encircle China in different regions and tries to block the Belt and Road Initiative. For instance, the Panama Canal was a very strategic point in the Belt and Road. Notice that Trump’s statements also target BRICS. Thus, he has a policy aimed at preventing the unification of rising poles. Who are these poles? China, Russia, India, other Asian countries, medium-sized powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt. He is trying to sow discord among these powers.
This is one aspect of the plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine issue through negotiations. It is a strategy aimed at distancing Russia from China by reaching an agreement with Russia, thereby isolating China. There have been official statements regarding this and numerous articles have been written in the US press.
There are actually two main regions in this entire matter and in the Trump-Putin meeting. There is the possibility of a new “Yalta”, just like at the end of World War II. However, this can’t encompass the whole world this time because neither Russia nor the US possesses the same power as before. Still, there are regions where Russia and America are influential. Ukraine is one of them. The entire Middle East is another. In these two regions, Putin and Trump might search for a consensus. But this doesn’t mean that the US will accept Russia’s victory in Ukraine and, in return, Russia will give the initiative in Middle East to the US. I don’t think the issue is that simple or black-and-white.
In this context, the Ukraine issue is important. Why? Because the answer to the question, “Who will be influential in Europe?” lies here. At the core of the Ukraine issue was the question of who would have control in Europe. The Atlantic bloc sparked the war in Ukraine to sever the ties between Russia and Europe. Even, they physically attacked the Nord Stream in the end. Now, this situation could be reversed. Recall Trump’s first term. He caused cracks within NATO and showed a tendency to distance from Europe. This is an opportunity for the Russians. They may make a move towards Europe again by using energy routes. An important point connected to this is the rise of “new right-wing” parties in Europe in the coming period. These parties are like Trump. Le Pen in France, AfD in Germany etc. These parties advocate good relations with Russia. In the near future, we might witness their rise to power.
As I mentioned, the second region is the Middle East, and the Israel issue is crucial here. Israel is an unchanging outpost for the US in the Middle East. Israel can’t exist without the support of the US. Russia also does not want to fully oppose Israel. When you look at the Israeli population, about 20% speaks Russian. My guess is that the US and Russia might negotiate a formula like “in exchange for Israel’s security, Iran’s security”, a formula where pressure on Israel is reduced in exchange for not attacking Iran.
Yet, immediately after Trump came to power, Russia and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement. It is a very comprehensive agreement. That means Russia and Iran will continue their cooperation. The North-South corridor is significant in terms of both energy and trade. However, as I said, Trump will make moves aimed at driving a wedge between these countries. So, in the upcoming period, we will likely see both forward and backward steps, much like a wrestling match, from both sides.
How do you view Europe’s position in this new situation? And what will Europe’s attitude be?
Since 1945, we have a Europe that have acted almost like the vassals of the US, constantly following its orders. Their capacity to make independent moves is quite limited. They tried to form a bloc through the European Union and become a pole in their own right, but it is debatable how successful that has been. Now, they are being phased out of African countries and their former colonies. In other words, European countries’ access to raw material sources has been restricted. Moreover, China is becoming more and more influential the European market, the problems around the migration issue continue, etc. However, I should note that there is still an idea in Europe that they should become a pole on their own.
In the context of Ukraine, European countries tried to take on a role given to them by the US, which was against their own interests. They paid a heavy price for it. From the UK to France to Germany, there are government crises everywhere. How many prime ministers have come and gone in the UK in the past few years? In France, Macron is in a lame-duck situation, having lost his parliamentary majority. He is still president but has become almost “symbolic”. Scholz lost in the election.
When you look at it as a whole, Europe is losing its old role, the role of being a center. In the upcoming period, parallel to the weakening of the US-Europe bond, it is likely that their relations with Russia, which is geographically their neighbor, will improve.
Europe is, of course, a powerhouse with industrial capacity and skilled labor, but in the battle between giants like China, India, Brazil, and the US, non-unified centers like Europe don’t seem to have a significant weight on the world stage. Therefore, if they can’t make a move, my guess is that Eastern Europe will once again fall under Russia’s economic influence.
There could also be surprises in Western Europe. Independent, De Gaulle-like governments could emerge again. However, in this trajectory, it seems that all the current powers will be phased out: the remnants of Biden, the remnants of the old era, the liberals, social democrats and parts of the center-right.
So, if the next Trump term ends and a Democrat president comes back, will this trajectory change?
This situation now we observe isn’t only about Trump. Trump is a result. We are experiencing a multipolar world. Look at the internal contradictions in the US. There are talks of mass purges in the CIA and FBI right now. If we look at the Ukraine issue, the West collectively attacked Russia, but Russia repelled the attack. The plan failed. China’s rise is already an immense one.
Overall, a new civilization is being born. Something entirely different is emerging with all its facets. That’s why this process is so painful. In this regard, even if a politician like Biden or Harris were to come to power tomorrow, they would not be able to continue their agendas.
We need to think within the new paradigm. If the countries in our region, such as Türkiye, Iran, and Egypt don’t work together, it will be very difficult for them to chart an independent path in this new climate, because now we are talking about the existence of huge global blocs. Otherwise, we may be caught in the whirlpool of these huge blocs. Note that even Europe is currently struggling not to drown in this whirlpool.