The Middle East and playing with “Big Guys”

By Mohamed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt

The Turkish proverb says that “when a clown moves to the palace, he does not become a king, but the palace turns into a circus.” This is the state of the rest of the world, especially the leaders and people of the Middle East as they watch Donald Trump’s acrobatic performances from inside the White House. Everyone was shocked by how the United States quickly shuffled files and redrawn the borders of countries, from Europe to the Middle East.

The Arab world and even the European continent seem to be in a state of shock, and the urgent question is whether the Arab world is capable of “playing with the big guys” while Washington redraws the maps of major countries in the world?

Many experts are monitoring the signs of a “New Yalta”, and some have commented sarcastically that the world is now hostage to the understandings of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, and the protest of Germany, France, Spain, Poland and Italy against Europe’s exclusion from resolving the war crisis in Ukraine. The last surprise came from the US Secretary of Defense, who informed the Europeans in Brussels that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is unrealistic, as is granting it NATO membership. The US Secretary’s comments on Ukraine’s borders came hours after Donald Trump’s clear insistence on controlling Gaza, which he said in front of the Jordanian King in the White House, only to return hours later, in a statement issued by the White House, to talk about giving Gazans options to live in safety and dignity, without the statement addressing their inevitable deportation. Experts believe that the issuance of this statement does not mean Trump’s retreat, but rather the opening of the door to negotiations with the Arab countries, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, regarding the future of Gaza, the final exit of Hamas from it, and reaching who inhabits it and how it is managed, so that Washington can then reach the desired goal: expanding the Abraham Accords and signing a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Anyone who looks at what is happening in the world and the region realizes that there is no room to separate this from what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon. In light of the acceleration of events and the movements of world leaders, especially Arabs, will Egypt and Saudi Arabia succeed in mobilizing the Arabs against Trump’s plan regarding Gaza?

“Poisonous Deal”

Does peace mean displacing the Palestinians and liquidating the Palestinian cause, and giving the West Bank and Gaza after Jerusalem and the Golan Heights to Israel? What kind of peace is this?! Who would dare to get involved in such a deal. The makers of the toxic deals have forgotten that the Middle East is boiling, and under the uneasy surface, there are huge waves of anger at Washington and the West, which has been involved in genocide, uncreative chaos and endless wars, and now toxic deals, in addition to the extent of suffering and wars.

Although recent events in the region tempt us to say that “the time has come” to impose miserable solutions and toxic deals; such as cleansing Gaza and deporting its residents to Arab countries, any realistic view says that these are “suicide recipes”, and what is sad and bitter is that all of this will not achieve peace or stability, and will not stop the projects of the new Middle East, nor creative chaos, nor a greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates. Egypt, Jordan, the Arab Parliament, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas rushed to reject the toxic deal.

It is most likely that the Arab countries, in addition to the rejection, are moving differently, and an urgent Arab and Islamic summit has been called to say a clear “no” to the suspicious deals, and to threaten to stop the normalization train, and even a firm stand with the United States. I think the Arab message should be collective, and its conclusion is that Arabs have interests, and Arab lives are “important”, and it is time for the Trump administration to think seriously and deeply about making peace. The president who says he wants to end wars and make peace has lost his logic and chose the worst start by talking about a plan to “cleanse” Gaza, by putting pressure on Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries to receive its residents. While an Israeli minister welcomed what Trump proposed, Cairo and Amman were quick to reject the displacement of Palestinians, and to confirm that they have no willingness to cooperate with any plans to force the people of Gaza to move to Egyptian or Jordanian territory.

He doesn’t know what he’s talking about

Perhaps the first result is the unification of the Palestinian ranks, and in the first Palestinian reactions, the “Islamic Jihad Movement” condemned President Trump’s proposal to transfer residents from the Gaza Strip to Jordan and Egypt and considered that this encourages the commission of “war crimes and crimes against humanity.” For his part, a leader in the Hamas movement threatened on Sunday to “thwart” the idea of ​​​​US President Donald Trump, and a member of the Hamas political bureau, Bassem Naim, told Agence France-Presse that “just as our people have thwarted all plans for displacement and an alternative homeland over the decades, they will also thwart such projects.”

In his interview with the German website Qantara, Palestinian political science professor Khalil Shaqaqi called for an interim leadership that would unite the Palestinians to rebuild Gaza and pave the way for elections, warning that Trump’s plans regarding Gaza would destroy the peace agreements between Israel, Egypt and Jordan. He stressed that he does not think that Trump knows what he is talking about; because this proposal would destroy the peace treaties between Israel and both Jordan and Egypt, which in turn will strongly resist the idea of ​​​​settling Palestinians in their countries, and this would be extremely destabilizing. In response to a question, this proposal was enthusiastically welcomed by the Israeli right, and figures such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir welcomed it as a step towards resettlement in Gaza.

Shaqaqi believes that of course, these extremists do not care about the future of the Jordanians, as they want Jordan to be a homeland for the Palestinians. They will not mind the collapse of Jordan if that means getting rid of the Palestinians in the West Bank, and if they can push the Gazans to Sinai, they will not care about the peace treaty that links Israel with Egypt.

Different People

Although theoretically, and according to many experiences in human history, it is possible to imagine the issue of emptying an area of ​​its inhabitants, through human intervention during war, especially if the reasons for living in this area or that region have disappeared, after the destruction of infrastructure, homes, institutions, places of worship, etc. However, Dr. Ammar Ali Hassan, in an article entitled “Can Gaza and the West Bank really be emptied by a decision from Trump?”, presents a different picture. He asserts, “In practical or realistic terms, we are with the Palestinians in front of a different people, whose enemies did not imagine that they had fully understood the experience of the tragic Nakba, and realized the bitterness of living in the diaspora, and believed that remaining in their land was the highest level of resistance, and even a victory over their enemy, whose far-reaching goal was to expel the indigenous people from their land and reoccupy it.”

The whole world witnessed that majestic scene of the Palestinians returning on foot to the northern Gaza Strip after a war that lasted about fifteen months, in which the Israeli army used the most modern and deadly types of weapons. This clinging to the place, even if it was destroyed, clearly means that the Palestinian people have become resistant to uprooting, and that their steely will is the first tool to destroy Trump’s miserable notions of emptying the Palestinian land of its inhabitants; in service of Israel, which he said about it when he looked closely at its presence on the map: It is a very small country.

Not a statesman’s speech

Many psychology experts note an important observation related to the leaders not abandoning diplomatic language, and usually do not exceed the limits of decency. But Trump has destroyed this diplomatic language, speaking as if he is alone in the world, without thinking about the consequences of his words. His style is simple, sarcastic, and provocative, similar to the style of social media, which is important to him. With this style, he stuns the targeted party, whether individuals or countries, which makes it easier for him to achieve what he wants. Some criticize Trump, describing him as “arrogant and unbalanced.” His seemingly unbalanced actions are actually tactical moves. People laugh at his statements, but they take them seriously; because the speaker is not a real estate dealer, but the President of the United States.

When Trump’s interests change, he can easily retract his statements or say the opposite. If he praises someone today, and then criticizes him the next day, it is not because of imbalance, but because that person no longer serves his interests. I think his most shocking statement was his talk about Gaza. He said that he would send all the Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan and Egypt, and then build luxury hotels and housing and sell it to people from all over the world. Even the Palestinians can buy it! These “crazy” ideas made people laugh and wonder, but I was surprised when I saw on TV an analysis showing the designs of the apartments that Trump wants to build in Gaza, and then I understood. What Trump specifically wants is for people to talk about “Trump the real estate developer”, not about Trump the president of America, which destroyed Gaza and participated in the killing of about 50,000 people in cooperation with Israel. His motto is “Discuss this crazy idea, but do not discuss the American-Israeli brutality, and keep the idea of ​​​​deporting the Palestinians in your minds, and get used to talking about it.”

Journalist Mona Hawa wrote on the X platform, describing the situation as “control through chaos.” Some say that Trump’s statements about Gaza can be interpreted in another way. One writer points out that in Türkiye, we say “scare him with death so that he will be satisfied with fever.” That is, if you do not agree to deport all Palestinians, you may agree to hand over part of Gaza or the West Bank to Israel. Trump and Netanyahu know that the Gaza evacuation plan will not be accepted, but they have already prepared another proposal that serves their interests, and we will hear about it soon.

Don’t be fooled by the magic of madness

For his part, Turkish writer Kemal Ozturk warns against the American president in an article titled “Beware of the magic that Trump practices.”

Ozturk says, “In your cities, there are certainly people who put forward strange ideas. They draw attention to their actions because they are unusual, and exceptionalism is an attractive behavior. But what if someone is “pretending to be strange” to achieve his own interests or to attract you to where he wants?” He confirms that Trump wants you to be fooled to lead you where he wants. He wants you to discuss building towers in Gaza, or what would happen if Canada became a US state, or how the world would change if Greenland became part of the United States. The more you discuss these ideas, the easier they will be to accept.

The writer warns that we will soon see how commentators, journalists, and politicians supported by Israel and America begin to say, “Gaza will become like the French city of Cannes, this is not a bad idea.” Don’t be fooled by the magic of Trump’s strange speeches. We should not discuss these ideas in the first place or make them part of our agenda. Don’t give up on your convictions.

All eyes on Egypt

During his meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah at the White House, the US President renewed the idea of ​​displacing the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip to Jordan and Egypt, announcing his adherence to it, while the Jordanian King said when asked about receiving the Palestinians that his country could receive 2,000 Palestinian children, and that he must do the best thing for his country. The Jordanian King said that Egypt is preparing a plan on how to “work” with the United States on Trump’s proposal. Following the meeting between the Jordanian King and Trump, which followed the statements threatening to displace the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to a neighboring country, all eyes are now on Egypt, whose President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi postponed his visit to Washington to meet the US President, according to what two Egyptian security sources revealed to Reuters, but neither the Egyptian presidency nor the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have yet responded to requests for comment. If the postponement of Sisi’s visit to Washington is confirmed, what are the implications of that? Is Egypt preparing to destroy Trump’s dreams of a Middle Eastern “Riviera” on the lands of the Gaza Strip? Many experts see multiple reasons for the postponement of the meeting between Sisi and Trump, including, according to Ahmed Maharam, a political writer residing in the United States, negative signals and loose expressions and terms issued by Trump. Others believe that the postponement of the visit came as a decision to confirm Egypt’s position rejecting any pressure exerted towards the displacement of the Palestinian people from the Gaza Strip. Informed sources stated that “the Egyptian authorities are busy preparing for the upcoming Arab summit on the 27th of this month, and they have a roadmap to formulate a unified Arab position regarding the rejection of displacement, and to work on the reconstruction of Gaza in cooperation with the United Nations, Arab and Gulf countries, and the international and Western community.”

Egypt warns

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry warned for the first time in an official statement of the danger of the American vision to liquidate the Palestinian cause and displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip on the gains of peace in the region. A statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry stressed that “any vision to resolve the Palestinian issue should take into account avoiding endangering the gains of peace in the region, in parallel with seeking to contain and deal with the causes and roots of the conflict.” Cairo preceded Trump’s statements, through important statements by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, a few days ago, stressing that the world in general, and our region in particular, are in unprecedented conflicts and challenges, which are devastating countries and destroying their capabilities. Its people. Al-Sisi stressed, but thanks to the tireless efforts of the armed forces and police, our country will remain safe from these disturbances. Indeed, Egypt has become, as it has been throughout the ages, an oasis of security and peace in the region. He stressed that by virtue of its historical responsibility, regional status, and international commitments, Egypt seeks with all its energies and sincere efforts to reject violence and strive for peace. The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is a living witness to these tireless efforts and the continuous endeavors made by Egypt alongside its partners in this regard. We will push with all our strength to implement this agreement in full, in an effort to stop the bloodshed of our Palestinian brothers, restore services to the Strip so that it becomes viable, and prevent any attempts at displacement due to these difficult circumstances; because this is something that Egypt categorically rejects, in order to preserve the existence of the Palestinian cause itself.

Egypt is not waiting for American aid

The former Egyptian army general and strategic thinker, Samir Farag, confirmed that Egypt is not waiting for American aid, pointing out that the price of the F-16 aircraft was $40 million and now its price has exceeded $90 million, and that Egypt was able to purchase 400 American F-16 aircraft in 4 years.

Farag continued during his meeting on the “Sada El Balad” channel that the rest of the aid provided by America was being pumped into health facilities, commenting: “The aid now is not enough for 10 F-16 aircraft.” Farag said that “Egypt sent 10 aircraft to America in 2013 for maintenance and did not return.. Egypt has strong papers to preserve its national security.” He explained that American aid stopped for 4 years, and Egypt is not waiting for American aid. Egypt provided facilities for American aviation, to increase the safety of American aircraft and allow America to pass through Egyptian airspace. He stated that Egyptian President Sisi is characterized by wisdom, calmness and not rushing into decisions, explaining that the Suez Canal used to grant early passage to American ships through the passages. Samir Farag confirmed that the Egyptian people support President Sisi in his firm positions of rejecting the displacement of Palestinians, stressing the strong role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in conveying the firm Egyptian position on the Palestinian issue. Farag pointed out that there are popular demands not to have President Sisi visit the United States of America, explaining that he recommends the idea of ​​President Sisi visiting America to present his ideas and defend them before the whole world and announce his position, which will not change, towards the Palestinian issue. He concluded with a warning, “

Will the visit be canceled?

While Egypt has not officially commented on the news of the visit being postponed, analysts believe that relations with Washington have become tense following the negative reactions from the Trump administration to Egypt’s concerns about the proposal. Egyptian experts believe that the visit will not be cancelled, but postponed indefinitely, meaning that Cairo’s goal is to obtain guarantees that there is a freeze on Trump’s speech regarding the displacement of Palestinians. However, some observers talk about Trump’s anger and unwillingness to meet the Egyptian president, in light of the latter’s insistence on rejecting the idea of ​​displacing the residents of Gaza, and experts rule out the resolution of the crisis unless Trump sends signals about the possibility of agreeing on alternative solutions.

“Blowing up Trump’s plan”

For political analyst Ahmed Maharam, “Egypt and Jordan are both on the same line of confrontation, which is rejecting Trump’s idea, but it needs the support of Arab countries,” noting that “the Western world has also expressed its disapproval of the idea, including countries such as Germany through its Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the French President, in addition to China and Russia.” Maharam added that “Trump’s statements have nothing to do with diplomacy and that the world rejects them, and that the meeting of Arab countries in Cairo on February 27 will produce positions that will make the US administration rearrange its priorities. If it wants to please Israel, this will not be at the expense of the peoples of the region.”

For his part, experts believe that in the next stage, “positions will unite and will force the Arabs to reject any kind of normalization with Israel unless there is actually a complete abandonment and retreat from the displacement plan, considering that it affects Egyptian and Arab national security.”

The sources say that “the Egyptian proposal for the reconstruction of Gaza with the support of Arab countries will undermine Trump’s plan for the Middle East Riviera on the lands of the Gaza Strip.” They pointed out that “Cairo will play a major role in proposing the new initiative that will change the rules of the game with the American side, and block the path of any American attempts to impose its approach.”

For his part, Maharam confirms that the Egyptian side is keen to cling to the reconstruction solution in light of the presence of the owners of the land in their homeland, stressing that the Palestinians are able to live under the current conditions on their land until reconstruction is completed.”

He added that both Egypt and Jordan are counting on this solution, which the Palestinian people accept and are satisfied with, in the first place.

The spokesman pointed out that “Trump’s attempts to garner support for his idea by describing Gaza as an uninhabitable area are a failed attempt, because Trump did not ask himself who brought the region to this situation.”

Anti-Arab “Roadmap”

For its part, informed sources expected that the Arab summit will result in a set of positions, statements, and a strategy for action, and all of this has been studied for some time behind closed doors between Cairo and the Arab and regional capitals and Islamic countries, to produce an Arab roadmap, which will be adopted as a basis for blocking Trump and Israel’s attempts at displacement, and also rejecting any Israeli control over the Gaza Strip. Powerful Arab countries, including historical allies of the United States, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar, have intensified their diplomatic efforts in recent days to stress their rejection of Trump’s proposal and the uprooting of Palestinians from Palestinian lands. “Egypt cannot do this alone, and it really needs Arab support, especially the Gulf states, to adopt a unified Arab position on the issue of displacement,” said Michael Hanna, director of the US program at the International Crisis Group. “Egypt lacks economic influence, but Gulf support enhances its ability to make decisions on the international stage and before Trump,” he told AFP.

Egypt has demands from Trump

It seems that we are facing a long marathon of negotiations and frank dialogue with Donald Trump and his administration regarding many of the burning issues in the Middle East. It is natural that the methods of addressing the issues will differ, but the most important thing is for Trump and his companions to realize that Egypt has done more than any other force to stabilize the region, and that its role is pivotal and irreplaceable. The most striking thing is Trump’s statement that he has done a lot to help Egypt and Jordan, and that they should help him deport the Palestinians from Gaza.

Here the issue of Egypt’s role and what it has provided, its strategic weight, and ultimately the state of the Egyptian-American relationship and its future, appears, and most likely we must prepare for the arduous bargaining with the “King of Deals.”

Perhaps the first step on the long road ahead of us in dealing with Trump is to clarify the extent of what we have offered, and for some Egyptian elites to stop the harmful talk about “the decline of Egypt’s strategic weight,” and I believe that this belittles Egypt, and more importantly the value of its cards and its negotiating ability.

I believe that Egypt must increase its engagement and interaction with the United States, and not be shy but bold, and submit a long “list of demands” from the new administration, and raise the ceiling of its demands forcefully, and highlight its dissatisfaction with what it received from Washington, and that it is offering more than it is taking, and that it is time for it to get a much better deal, and that Washington must realize that Egypt has more attractive offers from other powers courting it, and that the loss of alternative opportunities cannot be ignored for long.

It is time to negotiate seriously, and a vital point must be highlighted, which is that any shift, even a slight one, in Egypt’s position on “supporting moderation” will tempt the region to explode, and severely threaten the interests of the West and Washington. Cairo’s patience and its keenness not to open the gates of hell in the region must not be misunderstood, and it is acting rationally, but in the end Egypt is a large country with interests, issues related to national security, a long history of civilization, and a people who are proud of their honorable history, and do not accept hints, provocations, or threats to their country or political leadership. It is sufficient here to point out the popular position rejecting the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai. I think that official Cairo is dealing with successive American administrations patiently and calmly, but perhaps the time has come for an appropriate adjustment in the demands, and for the Trump administration to reach “Cairo’s dissatisfaction” with the current state of the relationship, and for it to show its displeasure, and for its unofficial elite to engage, interact, and even help in obtaining a better deal for Egypt during the Trump era, and to show its strong support for the official Egyptian position and strengthen it.

I think that we must remind Washington that there are many questions that are still waiting for a satisfactory answer regarding the American position towards Egypt, for example, are the real value of Egyptian-American relations limited to $1.3 billion annually? Where is the free trade agreement between the two countries? Where are the huge American investments in Egypt apart from energy? Where is the cooperation in the field of technology transfer, cooperation in the fields of artificial intelligence, and the fields of future sciences? Does this relationship provide Egypt with sufficient support in strategic issues such as the Renaissance Dam or the crises in Sudan and Libya? Will the conflicts and wars currently taking place in the Middle East play a role in reshaping relations between the two countries?

There is no doubt that countries such as China, Russia, Türkiye, India, Japan, South Korea and Iran are making attractive offers, and Europe is also moving, but more in the field of renewable energy.

However, the question remains: is Washington keen on the “most important strategic relationship” with Cairo, the pivotal state? If the answer is yes, then Egypt has demands, the first of which is: facilitating obtaining a loan on soft terms from the Fund and aid from the World Bank worth $70 billion, and Washington adopting an initiative to reduce Egypt’s debt, cooperating with Egypt to resolve the Renaissance Dam crisis, and accelerating the return of stability in Sudan and Libya.

Although many experts agree that Trump’s arrival in the White House will not change much in the patterns of international dealings in the Middle East in general, and the Arab region in particular, Egypt can help support Trump in his declared desire to make peace and stop endless wars, in an attempt to achieve regional stability in a way that supports Egyptian and American interests. This requires a close dialogue regarding Egypt’s vision for achieving this away from recipes for the region’s explosion, and at the same time an understanding of Egypt’s demands from the United States. Here, it is necessary to highlight the vitality of Egypt’s economic demands and enhance bilateral cooperation instead of focusing relations on one leg related to “security only.”

Perhaps it is wise to acknowledge that there is a need to review the Egyptian-American relationship, as it is clear that the direct goals that Egyptian-American relations were established to achieve forty years ago are no longer very relevant to the current international and regional reality, and the two countries need to formulate new reasons for the continuation of their alliance relations, and they need to propose new common goals that they seek to achieve together, and to give new meaning to their alliance after the opponents and hostilities have changed.

In this context, Egypt will have to prepare its answers to several key questions:

– The starting point is whether Egypt is satisfied with its relationship with Washington after such a long period?

– What policies does Egypt want the United States to implement in the Middle East?

– What demands can Egypt realistically expect the United States to respond to?

– What can the United States offer Egypt in the Middle East?

– What will relations between Egypt and the United States look like as Egypt establishes close cooperation with China and Russia?

– Can Egypt expect American aid to continue at the same levels as before, given the diversity of Egypt’s foreign alliances? Is it sufficient, given what is happening?

Certainly, Egypt does not want to find Washington on the side of Egypt’s enemies, and Egypt is keen not to be in any alliance hostile to the United States.

While Trump declares his desire for peace, he is proposing ideas such as displacing the people of Gaza. Here, it seems difficult for an impartial observer to determine the real goals that President Trump wants to achieve in the Middle East. What complicates the problem is that we do not know what the United States wants to achieve in the region. It is sufficient to point out that the Democrats accept the two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state, but the Republicans’ position is still vague, and even unconstructively biased towards Israel.

Chaos versus Peace

The decisive moments prove that Egypt is a strong country in the face of regional and international challenges. It is certain that the Egyptian position, which confronted the displacement process during the height of the barbaric aggression on Gaza, will not now accept the liquidation of the Palestinian cause under any pressure or temptations.

At the same time, I think that Jordan will fight hard; Because this is an existential threat, and if it is accepted, it will spark a civil war. Saudi Arabia has also strongly declared that the two-state solution is a basic condition for achieving peace or entering into the agreements called the “Abraham Accords”. However, the most serious question here is whether these deals contribute to supporting the peace camp or push Arab public opinion towards adopting war options and hostility towards America and the West. On the other hand, the Arab countries want a just peace, but Israel does not want that, which explodes the situation and severely threatens stability. It is sufficient to indicate here that Hamas, despite all the tragedy it participated in and caused in Gaza, is gaining more support in the West Bank, and the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas, the godfather of Oslo, find themselves in an unenviable position. Despite the losses of the axis of resistance, the axis of “peaceful solutions” has not won, but is facing a dangerous dilemma and extreme difficulty in answering the serious question: What has the peace process achieved?! Where are the returns of peace?! When will the Palestinian state be established?! Does Israel want peace or “Greater Israel” from the Nile to the Euphrates?! Can the region, Europe and the world tolerate the “state of non-peace”? Is it time for a firm stand with the American friend?

Most likely, the Arab world should unite more, and the official Arab regime should raise its voice in anger; because it is now threatened, and there is a lot that it will lose if it remains passive. There must be Arab reconciliations, Arab solutions, building a broad international alliance, moving strongly in the European arena, and conveying a simple message: “Poisonous deals will explode volcanoes of anger, and in turn will explode chaos, and this chaos will inevitably move to Europe first to tamper with it harshly before others.

This is probably one of the most dangerous moments in the history of the region, and the Egyptian role is strongly required, but Trump must understand that Egypt has another vision for achieving peace, and that it has demands, and that the time has come “to stand with the American friend.”